Uploaded February 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
In this episode, Nik walks through our TBL proprietary liquidity index, explaining why the red signal flagged in late December and confirmed in January preceded Bitcoin's sharp decline below $70,000. He breaks down the four inputs driving the current liquidity contraction, with focus on dollar volatility and bond stress, the US-Japan currency relationship, and why early-cycle US credit growth remains the structural argument for improving conditions ahead.
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
🔓 The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial services. Unchained empowers you to take full control of your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys, and benefit from a Bitcoin security partner. Purchase Bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk. Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys. Don’t pay more taxes than you have to. Talk to us today.
Visit unchained.com/tbl and use the code TBL10 for a 10% credit towards your first year's account fees.
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe
🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.
📱 Follow TBL on X: twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer
📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial
🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch
⛓️ ₿lock Height 937304
⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg
Nik Bhatia's Twitter: twitter.com/timevalueofbtc
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB
❗ The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Chapters:
00:00 TBL Liquidity Metric & Recent Trends
02:00 How TBL Liquidity Impacts Bitcoin & Stocks
04:30 Understanding the TBL Liquidity Indicator
06:00 Backtesting the Indicator's Performance
08:00 Recent Red Dot Signal & Bitcoin Price Movement
10:00 Quantitative Research & Bitcoin Layer's Approach
12:00 Key Components of TBL Liquidity Index
13:00 Focus: Dollar Strength & Bond Volatility
15:00 Currency Manipulation and USD/JPY Volatility
17:00 Impact on Liquidity & Stock Market Volatility
18:30 Liquidity Outlook and What’s Ahead
20:00 Examining Bitcoin & Market Indicators
22:00 Why We're Still Bullish on Liquidity
24:00 Early Economic Cycle & Loan Growth
26:00 Implications for Credit, Interest Rates, and Bitcoin
27:00 Final Thoughts & How to Learn More
In this episode, Nik walks through our TBL proprietary liquidity index, explaining why the red signal flagged in late December and confirmed in January preceded Bitcoin's sharp decline below $70,000. He breaks down the four inputs driving the current liquidity contraction, with focus on dollar volatility and bond stress, the US-Japan currency relationship, and why early-cycle US credit growth remains the structural argument for improving conditions ahead.
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
🔓 The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial services. Unchained empowers you to take full control of your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys, and benefit from a Bitcoin security partner. Purchase Bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk. Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys. Don’t pay more taxes than you have to. Talk to us today.
Visit unchained.com/tbl and use the code TBL10 for a 10% credit towards your first year's account fees.
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe
🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.
📱 Follow TBL on X: twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer
📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial
🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch
⛓️ ₿lock Height 937304
⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg
Nik Bhatia's Twitter: twitter.com/timevalueofbtc
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB
❗ The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Chapters:
00:00 TBL Liquidity Metric & Recent Trends
02:00 How TBL Liquidity Impacts Bitcoin & Stocks
04:30 Understanding the TBL Liquidity Indicator
06:00 Backtesting the Indicator's Performance
08:00 Recent Red Dot Signal & Bitcoin Price Movement
10:00 Quantitative Research & Bitcoin Layer's Approach
12:00 Key Components of TBL Liquidity Index
13:00 Focus: Dollar Strength & Bond Volatility
15:00 Currency Manipulation and USD/JPY Volatility
17:00 Impact on Liquidity & Stock Market Volatility
18:30 Liquidity Outlook and What’s Ahead
20:00 Examining Bitcoin & Market Indicators
22:00 Why We're Still Bullish on Liquidity
24:00 Early Economic Cycle & Loan Growth
26:00 Implications for Credit, Interest Rates, and Bitcoin
27:00 Final Thoughts & How to Learn More
