Uploaded January 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
Science of Superforecasting - Global Warming Rise: we blew past 1.5C, how about 2C, 2.5C, to 4C?
It looks like global average temperature has already blown past 1.5C. When will we cross 2.0? 2.5? 3.0?, 3.5? and even 4.0?
I chat about what 5 different prestigious climate groups think? I summarize the spread, and the aggregate mean, and then give the Beckwith Superforecast:)
What do you think? Are you a superforecaster, or do you just think that you are?
We already passed 1.5C - happened, in last few years
When do we pass 2.0C. Group spread is 2034 to 2039 with mean of 2037. Beckwith guess 2033.
How about 2.5C. Group spread is 2044 to 2052 with mean of 2048. Beckwith guess is 2041.
OK, what about passing 3.0C. Group spread is 2054 to 2065 with mean of 2060. Beckwith superforecast is 2050.
Anybody for 3.5C. Group spread is 2065 to 2077 with mean of 2072. Beckwith guess is 2058.
Finally, when will we cross 4.0C. Group spread is 2075 to 2090 with mean of 2084. Beckwith guess is 2066.
Of course, a supervolcano (natural or induced:) will negate all this since humanity likes to eat food...
Links:
Table of crossing dates:
facebook.com/messenger_media/?attachment_id=1615445669481136&message_id=mid.%24gAAdg5VNY4VihvcfCPGbjIJ1KotKs&thread_id=2076862899085656
Article: Global Warming has Accelerated Significantly
permalogica.com/post/global-warming-has-accelerated-significantly
Preprint of Scientific Paper: Global Warming has Accelerated Signicantly
Abstract.
Recent record-hot years have caused a discussion whether global warming has accelerated, but previous analysis found that acceleration has not yet reached a 95% confidence level given the natural temperature variability. Here we account for the influence of three main natural variability
factors: El Niño, volcanism, and solar variation. The resulting adjusted data show that after 2015, global temperature rose significantly faster than in any previous 10-year period since 1945.
Link: assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6079807/v1_covered_209e5182-d9a5-4305-a4e0-70204151d2b3.pdf?c=1744822997
Perplexity.ai query: Tell me all about superforecasting
perplexity.ai/search/tell-me-all-about-superforecas-TT.RdKQfSGSof10R0mLkAA
Good Judgement Research Group: The Science of Superforecasting
goodjudgment.com/about/the-science-of-superforecasting
Polymarket.com betting site: polymarket.com
Polymarket.com climate and science questions; Tech Questions
Polymarket Climate Bet:
Question: Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Present odds (check updates yourself)
First hottest year ever: 11% chance
Second hottest year: 37% chance
Third hottest year: 6.7% chance
Fourth hottest year: 45% chance
polymarket.com/event/where-will-2026-rank-among-the-hottest-years-on-record?tid=1767590288956
Live long and prosper. Or at least survive... Paul Beckwith, Jan 5th, 2026
Happy New Year to you and yours...
From my friend Heidi:
Hello! I wanted to share something important with you. Paul Beckwith is doing incredible work to educate people about climate change and extreme weather, but he needs our support to continue this vital mission. Every donation, no matter the size, can make a difference in helping him reach more communities. Please consider clicking the link below to donate or share it with others who care about our planet. Thank you!
Year end - Year start GoFundMe: https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-paul-...
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
Science of Superforecasting - Global Warming Rise: we blew past 1.5C, how about 2C, 2.5C, to 4C?
It looks like global average temperature has already blown past 1.5C. When will we cross 2.0? 2.5? 3.0?, 3.5? and even 4.0?
I chat about what 5 different prestigious climate groups think? I summarize the spread, and the aggregate mean, and then give the Beckwith Superforecast:)
What do you think? Are you a superforecaster, or do you just think that you are?
We already passed 1.5C - happened, in last few years
When do we pass 2.0C. Group spread is 2034 to 2039 with mean of 2037. Beckwith guess 2033.
How about 2.5C. Group spread is 2044 to 2052 with mean of 2048. Beckwith guess is 2041.
OK, what about passing 3.0C. Group spread is 2054 to 2065 with mean of 2060. Beckwith superforecast is 2050.
Anybody for 3.5C. Group spread is 2065 to 2077 with mean of 2072. Beckwith guess is 2058.
Finally, when will we cross 4.0C. Group spread is 2075 to 2090 with mean of 2084. Beckwith guess is 2066.
Of course, a supervolcano (natural or induced:) will negate all this since humanity likes to eat food...
Links:
Table of crossing dates:
facebook.com/messenger_media/?attachment_id=1615445669481136&message_id=mid.%24gAAdg5VNY4VihvcfCPGbjIJ1KotKs&thread_id=2076862899085656
Article: Global Warming has Accelerated Significantly
permalogica.com/post/global-warming-has-accelerated-significantly
Preprint of Scientific Paper: Global Warming has Accelerated Signicantly
Abstract.
Recent record-hot years have caused a discussion whether global warming has accelerated, but previous analysis found that acceleration has not yet reached a 95% confidence level given the natural temperature variability. Here we account for the influence of three main natural variability
factors: El Niño, volcanism, and solar variation. The resulting adjusted data show that after 2015, global temperature rose significantly faster than in any previous 10-year period since 1945.
Link: assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6079807/v1_covered_209e5182-d9a5-4305-a4e0-70204151d2b3.pdf?c=1744822997
Perplexity.ai query: Tell me all about superforecasting
perplexity.ai/search/tell-me-all-about-superforecas-TT.RdKQfSGSof10R0mLkAA
Good Judgement Research Group: The Science of Superforecasting
goodjudgment.com/about/the-science-of-superforecasting
Polymarket.com betting site: polymarket.com
Polymarket.com climate and science questions; Tech Questions
Polymarket Climate Bet:
Question: Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Present odds (check updates yourself)
First hottest year ever: 11% chance
Second hottest year: 37% chance
Third hottest year: 6.7% chance
Fourth hottest year: 45% chance
polymarket.com/event/where-will-2026-rank-among-the-hottest-years-on-record?tid=1767590288956
Live long and prosper. Or at least survive... Paul Beckwith, Jan 5th, 2026
Happy New Year to you and yours...
From my friend Heidi:
Hello! I wanted to share something important with you. Paul Beckwith is doing incredible work to educate people about climate change and extreme weather, but he needs our support to continue this vital mission. Every donation, no matter the size, can make a difference in helping him reach more communities. Please consider clicking the link below to donate or share it with others who care about our planet. Thank you!
Year end - Year start GoFundMe: https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-paul-...
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
