Uploaded May 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
Unprecedented Human-Caused Antarctic Heat Waves Driven by Polar Vortex and Atmospheric River Weirding
A couple videos back, I talked about how warm ocean water from below has been surfacing since 2015 and is attributed to the collapse of Antarctic Sea Ice and increased ice melting on and around Antarctica from below.
Now, in this video I talk about unprecedented heat waves that have occurred in the last few years on the surface of Antarctica in both the winter and summer.
I show on Earth Nullschool how July to August, 2024 temperatures on the surface of Antarctica reached +4.0 C (winter there) and how March, 2022 temperatures on the surface of Antarctica reached +13.7 C, and from 1/4 to 1/3 of the continent was above zero at the surface.
These heat waves are caused by a weakening and displaced stratospheric polar vortex over Antarctica allowing warm moist atmospheric rivers from lower latitudes to infiltrate deeply within the Antarctic continent.
The March, 2022 heatwave had temperatures 40 C warmer than normal, bringing surface temperatures to at least +13.7 C temperatures (well above freezing), likely the most extreme heatwave anomaly reached anywhere on the planet in recent history.
Very crazy stuff...
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
GoFundMe: gofundme.com/f/help-paul-continue-his-climate-emergency-research
References and Links
Phys.org article:
An unprecedented Antarctic heat wave hit in the dead of winter—what it signals for the decades ahead
phys.org/news/2026-04-unprecedented-antarctic-dead-winter-decades.html#:~:text=It%20followed%20a%20heat%20wave,confined%20to%20traditionally%20vulnerable%20regions.
Map of Antarctic heat wave:
phys.org/news/2026-04-unprecedented-antarctic-dead-winter-decades.html
Paper from journal npj: Climate and Atmospheric Science:
Unprecedented 2024 East Antarctic winter heatwave driven by polar vortex weakening and amplified by anthropogenic warming
Link to open-access (free) paper: nature.com/articles/s41612-026-01392-x
Abstract
During July–August 2024, East Antarctica experienced the most intense winter heatwave in the 46-year satellite era, with regional mean surface air temperatures across Dronning Maud Land exceeding the climatological mean by more than 9°C for 17 consecutive days. To explore the physical drivers and quantify the anthropogenic contribution to this unprecedented event, we propose a multi-model, multi-method attribution framework integrating regional climate model-based storyline attribution, circulation analogues, and large-ensemble probabilistic attribution. The results show that a pronounced weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex initiated a quasi-barotropic high-pressure anomaly, which enhanced meridional heat and moisture transport and accounted for approximately 50% of the observed surface warming. Across different models and attribution methods, synthesis of the attribution results indicates that anthropogenic warming intensified the event by approximately 0.7°C and more than doubled the likelihood of such exceptional winter heatwaves in the current climate. Probabilistic attribution further indicates that, compared to a natural climate without human influence, the likelihood of such events increases from 2–3 times today to ~6 times under moderate emissions and up to 26 times under high emissions by 2100. These findings reveal how human-induced warming is transforming even the coldest regions, with implications for ice shelf stability and predictability of future Antarctic extremes.
Direct Links to some Earth Nullschool images that I discussed in this video. It is very important for you to see the two images below...
August 4th, 2024 Heat wave over Antarctica, winter temperatures at the surface reaching an incredible +4.0 degrees C
earth.nullschool.net/#2024/08/04/1600Z/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-59.66,-94.89,1288/loc=41.776,-70.717
March 18, 2022 Heat wave over Antarctica, summer temperatures at the surface reaching an unprecedented +13.7 degrees C (notably, 40 C warmer than normal, likely the most extreme heatwave anomaly anywhere on the planet in recent history)
earth.nullschool.net/#2022/03/18/0700Z/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-64.67,-98.94,850/loc=99.708,-74.804
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
GoFundMe: gofundme.com/f/help-paul-continue-his-climate-emergency-research
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
Unprecedented Human-Caused Antarctic Heat Waves Driven by Polar Vortex and Atmospheric River Weirding
A couple videos back, I talked about how warm ocean water from below has been surfacing since 2015 and is attributed to the collapse of Antarctic Sea Ice and increased ice melting on and around Antarctica from below.
Now, in this video I talk about unprecedented heat waves that have occurred in the last few years on the surface of Antarctica in both the winter and summer.
I show on Earth Nullschool how July to August, 2024 temperatures on the surface of Antarctica reached +4.0 C (winter there) and how March, 2022 temperatures on the surface of Antarctica reached +13.7 C, and from 1/4 to 1/3 of the continent was above zero at the surface.
These heat waves are caused by a weakening and displaced stratospheric polar vortex over Antarctica allowing warm moist atmospheric rivers from lower latitudes to infiltrate deeply within the Antarctic continent.
The March, 2022 heatwave had temperatures 40 C warmer than normal, bringing surface temperatures to at least +13.7 C temperatures (well above freezing), likely the most extreme heatwave anomaly reached anywhere on the planet in recent history.
Very crazy stuff...
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
GoFundMe: gofundme.com/f/help-paul-continue-his-climate-emergency-research
References and Links
Phys.org article:
An unprecedented Antarctic heat wave hit in the dead of winter—what it signals for the decades ahead
phys.org/news/2026-04-unprecedented-antarctic-dead-winter-decades.html#:~:text=It%20followed%20a%20heat%20wave,confined%20to%20traditionally%20vulnerable%20regions.
Map of Antarctic heat wave:
phys.org/news/2026-04-unprecedented-antarctic-dead-winter-decades.html
Paper from journal npj: Climate and Atmospheric Science:
Unprecedented 2024 East Antarctic winter heatwave driven by polar vortex weakening and amplified by anthropogenic warming
Link to open-access (free) paper: nature.com/articles/s41612-026-01392-x
Abstract
During July–August 2024, East Antarctica experienced the most intense winter heatwave in the 46-year satellite era, with regional mean surface air temperatures across Dronning Maud Land exceeding the climatological mean by more than 9°C for 17 consecutive days. To explore the physical drivers and quantify the anthropogenic contribution to this unprecedented event, we propose a multi-model, multi-method attribution framework integrating regional climate model-based storyline attribution, circulation analogues, and large-ensemble probabilistic attribution. The results show that a pronounced weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex initiated a quasi-barotropic high-pressure anomaly, which enhanced meridional heat and moisture transport and accounted for approximately 50% of the observed surface warming. Across different models and attribution methods, synthesis of the attribution results indicates that anthropogenic warming intensified the event by approximately 0.7°C and more than doubled the likelihood of such exceptional winter heatwaves in the current climate. Probabilistic attribution further indicates that, compared to a natural climate without human influence, the likelihood of such events increases from 2–3 times today to ~6 times under moderate emissions and up to 26 times under high emissions by 2100. These findings reveal how human-induced warming is transforming even the coldest regions, with implications for ice shelf stability and predictability of future Antarctic extremes.
Direct Links to some Earth Nullschool images that I discussed in this video. It is very important for you to see the two images below...
August 4th, 2024 Heat wave over Antarctica, winter temperatures at the surface reaching an incredible +4.0 degrees C
earth.nullschool.net/#2024/08/04/1600Z/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-59.66,-94.89,1288/loc=41.776,-70.717
March 18, 2022 Heat wave over Antarctica, summer temperatures at the surface reaching an unprecedented +13.7 degrees C (notably, 40 C warmer than normal, likely the most extreme heatwave anomaly anywhere on the planet in recent history)
earth.nullschool.net/#2022/03/18/0700Z/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-64.67,-98.94,850/loc=99.708,-74.804
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
GoFundMe: gofundme.com/f/help-paul-continue-his-climate-emergency-research
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
