More "Game Changers" (and Failures) in Ukraine - From Starlink & Electronic warfare to Hypersonics @PerunAU

Perun | More "Game Changers" (and Failures) in Ukraine - From Starlink & Electronic warfare to Hypersonics @PerunAU | Uploaded November 2023 | Updated October 2024, 6 days ago.
A few weeks ago, I looked at some of the many systems that have been used in Ukraine that attracted their share of of media hype and asked whether they delivered on their hype.

Today, I round out that list with more hyped up systems that didn't make in into the first video, while also looking at some that I'd probably nominate as just as, or more significant, that the ones drawing heaps of media attention.

Expect a focus on the importance of context and opportunity costs as we look at Kizhal, SCALP, the TB-2 drone and Orlan drones, as well as Starlink and Russia's extensive park of EW assets.

Thank you all of you who voted for this topic - I hope you enjoy.

Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU

Relevant Reading/sourcing
The Russian Way of War (Grau & Bartles) https://www.armyupress.army.mil/portals/7/hot%20spots/documents/russia/2017-07-the-russian-way-of-war-grau-bartles.pdf

Justin Bronk - Russian Combat Air Strengths and Limitations: cna.org/reports/2023/05/russian-combat-air-strengths-and-limitations

GAO-21-24 ELECTROMAGNETIC SPECTRUM OPERATIONS
gao.gov/assets/720/711469.pdf

RUSI - The Russian Air War and Ukrainian Requirements for Air Defence (Bronk, Reynolds & Watling)
rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/russian-air-war-and-ukrainian-requirements-air-defence

RUSI – The Orlan Complex, Tracking the supply chains of Russia’s most successful UAV
rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/orlan-complex-tracking-supply-chains-russias-most-successful-uav/interactive-summary

RUSI – Meatgrinder: Russian Tactics in the Second Year of its Invasion of Ukraine (Watling & Reynolds)
static.rusi.org/403-SR-Russian-Tactics-web-final.pdf

Russian military strategy core tenents and operational concepts - Michael Kofman, Anya Fink, Dmitry Gorenburg, Mary Chesnut, Jeffrey Edmonds, and Julian Waller cna.org/archive/CNA_Files/pdf/russian-military-strategy-core-tenets-and-operational-concepts.pdf

Reporting on Musk and Starlink over Crimea
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-09/elon-musk-refused-ukrainian-request-to-activate-starlink-network/102835524

Palantin making its training intro in 2019
janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/russias-palantin-electronic-warfare-system-makes-training-debut

Included image on Strelets slide - Reddit

Rosoboronexport on Strelets
https://roe.ru/eng/catalog/land-forces/military-communications-equipment-and-automated-control-systems/automated-control-systems/strelets/

Included report in intel sharing
theguardian.com/us-news/2022/may/07/us-spies-ukraine-russia-military-intelligence

Starlink use 2022
ft.com/content/f69b75cf-c36a-4ab3-9eb7-ad0aa00d230c

Starshield
airandspaceforces.com/space-force-contract-spacex-starshield

Starlink latency map (demonstrating UA usage)
starlink.com/map?view=latency

Reporting on Pentagon deal with SpaceX
cnbc.com/2023/06/01/pentagon-awards-spacex-with-ukraine-contract-for-starlink-satellite-internet.html

Shoigu on Orlan production
tass.com/defense/1645501

Rosoboronexport on Orlan 30
https://roe.ru/eng/catalog/aerospace-systems/uavs/orlan-30/

Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply.

In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.

Timestamps
00:00:00 — More Game Changers
00:01:25 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:43 — System Shaping Battlefields
00:09:56 — Kinzhal And Storm Shadow/SCALP
00:26:12 — TB-2 And Orlan
00:40:51 — Communication
00:48:53 — Electronic Warfare
01:05:30 — Conclusions
01:06:43 — Channel Update

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$Chinas Military Modernisation Speedrun - Budgets, Industry, and Purchasing Power Parity I think its fair to say that the days of Moscow being the hub of the worlds second most powerful conventional military are at an end. Now, that power rests in Beijing. The PLAs budget is vastly larger than Russias but a mere fraction of what the US spends. Despite that, China has gone through an incredibly rapid military modernisation over the last two decades, building new platforms and fielding new technologies so quickly that the gap between its capabilities and the USA has narrowed significantly. How? Today I look at the Chinese military budget, industry, and the wonders of purchasing power parity. Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU Timestamps: 00:00 Opening Words 00:07 Russia Stronk? 00:41 What about the PRC? 01:07 Where is all this coming from? 01:39 Capability Revolution 02:11 What Am I Covering? 03:45 Caveats 04:20 History 04:23 A Revolutionary Army 05:45 Contraction and Expansion 07:06 Force In Transition 08:21 Three Milestones 10:05 Whats in a Budget? 10:12 Inclusions and Exclusions 11:27 The Paramilitary Factors 12:23 Meet the 中国人民武装警察部队 12:59 Chinese Paramilitaries 15:43 Inclusions and Exclusions 16:55 Building a better budget - IISS method 18:27 Getting Closer? 19:12 Whats a Dollar Worth 22:04 Problems with PPP for Military Spending 23:26 Creating A defence PPP Index 25:13 The Global Picture 27:44 Industry 31:10 The SOE Problem 33:39 Black Holes and Questions 35:47 Progress & Momentum 36:06 The Spending Balance 37:44 Legacy Systems 39:56 The Buildup Benefits 41:18 Catching up is a curve 42:40 Does the line go up forever? 46:53 The Closing Picture 47:59 Conclusions 49:35 Channel Update 50:34 Scam Warning Caveats: At one point I mention that China was the second nation to field a 5th generation fighter with its J-20. Thats lazy wording on my part as the F-35 is a multinational project. I hope my intention in that statement was clear. As always - this video was produced on the basis of imperfect information, though the sources relied on or discussed are largely captured in the source list below. This video has been produced to help explain the pace of Chinese military modernisation and give some context to how it has managed to rapidly catch up with other powers. It is my hope that it is taken in the spirit in which it is intended. I accept that this video, out of necessity, simplifies a range of elements, ranging from the interaction between SOEs in the PRC to the specific budgetary arrangements that are in place in China. In this video I reference a range of methodologies to try and more accurately compare the value of the PRC defence budget with others (such as Russia or the USA). These examples should be considered approximate, and use methodologies set out in the sources below - I do not personally endorse any given method - they are used to illustrate the concepts involved. Sources: PRC 2019 defence white paper: https://english.www.gov.cn/archive/whitepaper/201907/24/content_WS5d3941ddc6d08408f502283d.html Assessing Chinese defence spending: proposals for new methodologies (IISS) - https://www.iiss.org/blogs/research-paper/2020/03/assessing-chinese-defence-spending China’s Military: The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) - CRS https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/R46808.pdf Understanding China’s 2021 Defense Budget - CSIS https://www.csis.org/analysis/understanding-chinas-2021-defense-budget Debating defence budgets: Why military purchasing power parity matters - Peter Robertson - https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/debating-defence-budgets-why-military-purchasing-power-parity-matters#:~:text=It%20can%20be%20seen%20that,the%20market%20exchange%20rate%20figure. A NEW ESTIMATE OF CHINA’S MILITARY EXPENDITURE - SIPRI https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2021-01/2101_sipri_report_a_new_estimate_of_chinas_military_expenditure.pdf China’s military might is much closer to the US than you probably think- https://theconversation.com/chinas-military-might-is-much-closer-to-the-us-than-you-probably-think-124487 World military expenditure passes $2 trillion for first time - SIPRI - https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2022/world-military-expenditure-passes-2-trillion-first-time#:~:text=China%2C%20the%20worlds%20second%20largest,grown%20for%2027%20consecutive%20years. Measuring Hard Power: China’s Economic Growth and Military Capacity - Robertson & Sin - https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/defpea/v28y2017i1p91-111.html China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress - CRS - https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/RL33153.pdf OECD PPP Data (retrieved week of 15/08) - https://data.oecd.org/conversion/purchasing-power-parities-ppp.htm The known unknowns of China’s defence budget - Frederico Bartels - https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-known-unknowns-of-chinas-defence-budget/$

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