Perun | China's Military Modernisation Speedrun - Budgets, Industry, and Purchasing Power Parity @PerunAU | Uploaded August 2022 | Updated October 2024, 6 days ago.
I think it's fair to say that the days of Moscow being the hub of the world's second most powerful conventional military are at an end. Now, that power rests in Beijing.
The PLA's budget is vastly larger than Russia's but a mere fraction of what the US spends. Despite that, China has gone through an incredibly rapid military modernisation over the last two decades, building new platforms and fielding new technologies so quickly that the gap between its capabilities and the USA has narrowed significantly.
How?
Today I look at the Chinese military budget, industry, and the wonders of purchasing power parity.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Timestamps:
00:00 -- Opening Words
00:07 -- Russia Stronk?
00:41 -- What about the PRC?
01:07 -- Where is all this coming from?
01:39 -- Capability Revolution
02:11 -- What Am I Covering?
03:45 -- Caveats
04:20 -- History
04:23 -- A Revolutionary Army
05:45 -- Contraction and Expansion
07:06 -- Force In Transition
08:21 -- Three Milestones
10:05 -- What's in a Budget?
10:12 -- Inclusions and Exclusions
11:27 -- The Paramilitary Factors
12:23 -- Meet the 中国人民武装警察部队
12:59 -- Chinese Paramilitaries
15:43 -- Inclusions and Exclusions
16:55 -- Building a better budget - IISS method
18:27 -- Getting Closer?
19:12 -- What's a Dollar Worth
22:04 -- Problems with PPP for Military Spending
23:26 -- Creating A defence PPP Index
25:13 -- The Global Picture
27:44 -- Industry
31:10 -- The SOE Problem
33:39 -- Black Holes and Questions
35:47 -- Progress & Momentum
36:06 -- The Spending Balance
37:44 -- Legacy Systems
39:56 -- The Buildup Benefits
41:18 -- Catching up is a curve
42:40 -- Does the line go up forever?
46:53 -- The Closing Picture
47:59 -- Conclusions
49:35 -- Channel Update
50:34 -- Scam Warning
Caveats:
At one point I mention that China was the second nation to field a 5th generation fighter with its J-20. That's lazy wording on my part as the F-35 is a multinational project. I hope my intention in that statement was clear.
As always - this video was produced on the basis of imperfect information, though the sources relied on or discussed are largely captured in the source list below.
This video has been produced to help explain the pace of Chinese military modernisation and give some context to how it has managed to rapidly catch up with other powers. It is my hope that it is taken in the spirit in which it is intended.
I accept that this video, out of necessity, simplifies a range of elements, ranging from the interaction between SOEs in the PRC to the specific budgetary arrangements that are in place in China.
In this video I reference a range of methodologies to try and more accurately compare the value of the PRC defence budget with others (such as Russia or the USA). These examples should be considered approximate, and use methodologies set out in the sources below - I do not personally endorse any given method - they are used to illustrate the concepts involved.
Sources:
PRC 2019 defence white paper:
https://english.www.gov.cn/archive/whitepaper/201907/24/content_WS5d3941ddc6d08408f502283d.html
Assessing Chinese defence spending: proposals for new methodologies (IISS) - iiss.org/blogs/research-paper/2020/03/assessing-chinese-defence-spending
China’s Military: The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) - CRS
sgp.fas.org/crs/row/R46808.pdf
Understanding China’s 2021 Defense Budget - CSIS
csis.org/analysis/understanding-chinas-2021-defense-budget
Debating defence budgets: Why military purchasing power parity matters - Peter Robertson - cepr.org/voxeu/columns/debating-defence-budgets-why-military-purchasing-power-parity-matters#:~:text=It%20can%20be%20seen%20that,the%20market%20exchange%20rate%20figure.
A NEW ESTIMATE OF CHINA’S MILITARY EXPENDITURE - SIPRI
sipri.org/sites/default/files/2021-01/2101_sipri_report_a_new_estimate_of_chinas_military_expenditure.pdf
China’s military might is much closer to the US than you probably think- theconversation.com/chinas-military-might-is-much-closer-to-the-us-than-you-probably-think-124487
World military expenditure passes $2 trillion for first time - SIPRI - sipri.org/media/press-release/2022/world-military-expenditure-passes-2-trillion-first-time#:~:text=China%2C%20the%20world's%20second%20largest,grown%20for%2027%20consecutive%20years.
Measuring Hard Power: China’s Economic Growth
and Military Capacity - Robertson & Sin - ideas.repec.org/a/taf/defpea/v28y2017i1p91-111.html
China Naval Modernization: Implications for
U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress - CRS -
sgp.fas.org/crs/row/RL33153.pdf
OECD PPP Data (retrieved week of 15/08) -
data.oecd.org/conversion/purchasing-power-parities-ppp.htm
The known unknowns of China’s defence budget - Frederico Bartels -
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-known-unknowns-of-chinas-defence-budget/
I think it's fair to say that the days of Moscow being the hub of the world's second most powerful conventional military are at an end. Now, that power rests in Beijing.
The PLA's budget is vastly larger than Russia's but a mere fraction of what the US spends. Despite that, China has gone through an incredibly rapid military modernisation over the last two decades, building new platforms and fielding new technologies so quickly that the gap between its capabilities and the USA has narrowed significantly.
How?
Today I look at the Chinese military budget, industry, and the wonders of purchasing power parity.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Timestamps:
00:00 -- Opening Words
00:07 -- Russia Stronk?
00:41 -- What about the PRC?
01:07 -- Where is all this coming from?
01:39 -- Capability Revolution
02:11 -- What Am I Covering?
03:45 -- Caveats
04:20 -- History
04:23 -- A Revolutionary Army
05:45 -- Contraction and Expansion
07:06 -- Force In Transition
08:21 -- Three Milestones
10:05 -- What's in a Budget?
10:12 -- Inclusions and Exclusions
11:27 -- The Paramilitary Factors
12:23 -- Meet the 中国人民武装警察部队
12:59 -- Chinese Paramilitaries
15:43 -- Inclusions and Exclusions
16:55 -- Building a better budget - IISS method
18:27 -- Getting Closer?
19:12 -- What's a Dollar Worth
22:04 -- Problems with PPP for Military Spending
23:26 -- Creating A defence PPP Index
25:13 -- The Global Picture
27:44 -- Industry
31:10 -- The SOE Problem
33:39 -- Black Holes and Questions
35:47 -- Progress & Momentum
36:06 -- The Spending Balance
37:44 -- Legacy Systems
39:56 -- The Buildup Benefits
41:18 -- Catching up is a curve
42:40 -- Does the line go up forever?
46:53 -- The Closing Picture
47:59 -- Conclusions
49:35 -- Channel Update
50:34 -- Scam Warning
Caveats:
At one point I mention that China was the second nation to field a 5th generation fighter with its J-20. That's lazy wording on my part as the F-35 is a multinational project. I hope my intention in that statement was clear.
As always - this video was produced on the basis of imperfect information, though the sources relied on or discussed are largely captured in the source list below.
This video has been produced to help explain the pace of Chinese military modernisation and give some context to how it has managed to rapidly catch up with other powers. It is my hope that it is taken in the spirit in which it is intended.
I accept that this video, out of necessity, simplifies a range of elements, ranging from the interaction between SOEs in the PRC to the specific budgetary arrangements that are in place in China.
In this video I reference a range of methodologies to try and more accurately compare the value of the PRC defence budget with others (such as Russia or the USA). These examples should be considered approximate, and use methodologies set out in the sources below - I do not personally endorse any given method - they are used to illustrate the concepts involved.
Sources:
PRC 2019 defence white paper:
https://english.www.gov.cn/archive/whitepaper/201907/24/content_WS5d3941ddc6d08408f502283d.html
Assessing Chinese defence spending: proposals for new methodologies (IISS) - iiss.org/blogs/research-paper/2020/03/assessing-chinese-defence-spending
China’s Military: The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) - CRS
sgp.fas.org/crs/row/R46808.pdf
Understanding China’s 2021 Defense Budget - CSIS
csis.org/analysis/understanding-chinas-2021-defense-budget
Debating defence budgets: Why military purchasing power parity matters - Peter Robertson - cepr.org/voxeu/columns/debating-defence-budgets-why-military-purchasing-power-parity-matters#:~:text=It%20can%20be%20seen%20that,the%20market%20exchange%20rate%20figure.
A NEW ESTIMATE OF CHINA’S MILITARY EXPENDITURE - SIPRI
sipri.org/sites/default/files/2021-01/2101_sipri_report_a_new_estimate_of_chinas_military_expenditure.pdf
China’s military might is much closer to the US than you probably think- theconversation.com/chinas-military-might-is-much-closer-to-the-us-than-you-probably-think-124487
World military expenditure passes $2 trillion for first time - SIPRI - sipri.org/media/press-release/2022/world-military-expenditure-passes-2-trillion-first-time#:~:text=China%2C%20the%20world's%20second%20largest,grown%20for%2027%20consecutive%20years.
Measuring Hard Power: China’s Economic Growth
and Military Capacity - Robertson & Sin - ideas.repec.org/a/taf/defpea/v28y2017i1p91-111.html
China Naval Modernization: Implications for
U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress - CRS -
sgp.fas.org/crs/row/RL33153.pdf
OECD PPP Data (retrieved week of 15/08) -
data.oecd.org/conversion/purchasing-power-parities-ppp.htm
The known unknowns of China’s defence budget - Frederico Bartels -
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-known-unknowns-of-chinas-defence-budget/
