Uploaded August 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago

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이란•호르무즈 해협 합의 전망… 유가•경제 영향은

Welcome to Within The Frame, where we bring the most pressing issues across the globe into focus. I'm Kim Mok-yeon.
Global markets are facing fresh uncertainty on several fronts.
At Jackson Hole, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled that more action may be needed if inflation fails to move quickly enough toward the Fed’s 2 percent target, putting a possible September rate hike in focus.
Meanwhile, hopes of reopening the Strait of Hormuz had helped bring oil prices down, which then surged again after the latest U.S. military strikes on Iran, raising fresh concerns over energy supplies and inflation.
For Korea, these pressures come alongside a weaker won and difficult choices over monetary and fiscal policy.

So, how could these shifting risks shape the Korean economy in the months ahead?

For more on this, we connect with Kim Yong-Jin, Professor at Sogang Business School. Welcome.

Also joining us is William Brown, Former member of the Board of Directors at Korea Economic Institute of America & Principal of Northeast Asia Economics and Intelligence Advisory. Good to see you.


1. (KIM) Let’s start with the Fed. After Kevin Warsh’s comments at Jackson Hole, should we take a September rate hike as a real possibility?

2. (BROWN) And with inflation still well above the Fed’s target and U.S. jobs data due this week, how likely is another rate hike at this point?

3. (BROWN) If the Fed does hike, that would clash directly with President Trump’s calls for lower rates.
With the midterms approaching, how much could that tension add to market and policy uncertainty?

4. (KIM) Let’s bring this back to Korea. The won has weakened again following Warsh’s hawkish comments.
If U.S. jobs data comes in strong, could the exchange rate break above 1,400 won again?

5. (KIM) And what about the Bank of Korea? Governor Shin says Korea doesn’t have to follow U.S. rate moves.
Given inflation, the exchange rate and household debt, how much room does the BOK really have to chart its own course?

6. (BROWN) Now let’s turn to oil.
Oil prices had fallen on hopes of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but have surged again following the latest U.S. strikes on Iran.
Where do you see oil prices heading from here, and what will be the biggest factor driving them?

7. (KIM) As for Korea, an oil shock from the Middle East could also feed through to inflation and the exchange rate.
If the U.S.-Iran conflict drags on and high oil prices persist, what would be the biggest risk to the Korean economy, and how should Korea respond?



That's where we'll leave our discussion tonight, Mr.Brown and Prof Kim, thank you both for joining me this evening and sharing your insights.

#UnitedStates #Iran #Strait_of_Hormuz #Economy #Oil_Prices #KimYongJin #WilliamBrown #미국 #이란 #호르무즈해협 #경제 #유가 #Arirang_News #아리랑뉴스

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2026-08-31, 20:30 (KST)