Uploaded April 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
How Ocean Stratification is Accelerating Global Warming
I discuss the excellent article written by Tom Harris and Jan Umsonst, who really know what they are talking (writing) about!!
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
References and Links
Climate Uncovered Blog:
The Great Decoupling 1: How Ocean Stratification is Boosting Global Warming
As ocean layers decouple, a record-breaking 2025 heat pulse prepares to collide with a 2026 El Niño, supercharging global weather and accelerating non-linear warming.
Tom Harris and Jan Umsonst
Mar 11, 2026
drtomharris.substack.com/p/the-great-decoupling-how-ocean-stratification
Climate Uncovered Blog:
The Great Decoupling 2: Changes in Ocean Biochemistry Driven by Strengthening Stratification
As the ocean carbon sink flattens, new research reveals how the biochemical impacts of warming and stratification are fundamentally compromising the sea’s ability to sustain life and regulate climate.
Tom Harris and Jan Umsonst
Mar 25, 2026
drtomharris.substack.com/p/the-great-decoupling-2-changes-in
YouTube video by Paul Beckwith: Link: youtube.com/watch?v=JxE6XFKOaRM
Science of Superforecasting - Global Warming Rise: we blew past 1.5C, how about 2C, 2.5C, to 4C?
7,074 views posted Jan 5, 2026
It looks like global average temperature has already blown past 1.5C. When will we cross 2.0? 2.5? 3.0?, 3.5? and even 4.0?
I chat about what 5 different prestigious climate groups think? I summarize the spread, and the aggregate mean, and then give the Beckwith Superforecast:)
What do you think? Are you a superforecaster, or do you just think that you are?
We already passed 1.5C - happened, in last few years
When do we pass 2.0C. Group spread is 2034 to 2039 with mean of 2037. Beckwith guess 2033.
How about 2.5C. Group spread is 2044 to 2052 with mean of 2048. Beckwith guess is 2041.
OK, what about passing 3.0C. Group spread is 2054 to 2065 with mean of 2060. Beckwith superforecast is 2050.
Anybody for 3.5C. Group spread is 2065 to 2077 with mean of 2072. Beckwith guess is 2058.
Finally, when will we cross 4.0C. Group spread is 2075 to 2090 with mean of 2084. Beckwith guess is 2066.
Of course, a supervolcano (natural or induced:) will negate all this since humanity likes to eat food...
Links:
Table of crossing dates:
https://www.facebook.com/messenger_me...
Article: Global Warming has Accelerated Significantly
https://www.permalogica.com/post/glob...
Preprint of Scientific Paper: Global Warming has Accelerated Significantly
Abstract.
Recent record-hot years have caused a discussion whether global warming has accelerated, but previous analysis found that acceleration has not yet reached a 95% confidence level given the natural temperature variability. Here we account for the influence of three main natural variability
factors: El Niño, volcanism, and solar variation. The resulting adjusted data show that after 2015, global temperature rose significantly faster than in any previous 10-year period since 1945.
Link: https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/...
Perplexity.ai query: Tell me all about superforecasting
https://www.perplexity.ai/search/tell...
Good Judgement Research Group: The Science of Superforecasting
https://goodjudgment.com/about/the-sc...
Polymarket.com betting site: polymarket.com
Polymarket.com climate and science questions; Tech Questions
Polymarket Climate Bet:
Question: Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Present odds (check updates yourself)
First hottest year ever: 11% chance
Second hottest year: 37% chance
Third hottest year: 6.7% chance
Fourth hottest year: 45% chance
https://polymarket.com/event/where-wi...
Live long and prosper. Or at least survive... Paul Beckwith, Jan 5th, 2026
Year end - Year start GoFundMe: https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-paul-...
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
How Ocean Stratification is Accelerating Global Warming
I discuss the excellent article written by Tom Harris and Jan Umsonst, who really know what they are talking (writing) about!!
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
References and Links
Climate Uncovered Blog:
The Great Decoupling 1: How Ocean Stratification is Boosting Global Warming
As ocean layers decouple, a record-breaking 2025 heat pulse prepares to collide with a 2026 El Niño, supercharging global weather and accelerating non-linear warming.
Tom Harris and Jan Umsonst
Mar 11, 2026
drtomharris.substack.com/p/the-great-decoupling-how-ocean-stratification
Climate Uncovered Blog:
The Great Decoupling 2: Changes in Ocean Biochemistry Driven by Strengthening Stratification
As the ocean carbon sink flattens, new research reveals how the biochemical impacts of warming and stratification are fundamentally compromising the sea’s ability to sustain life and regulate climate.
Tom Harris and Jan Umsonst
Mar 25, 2026
drtomharris.substack.com/p/the-great-decoupling-2-changes-in
YouTube video by Paul Beckwith: Link: youtube.com/watch?v=JxE6XFKOaRM
Science of Superforecasting - Global Warming Rise: we blew past 1.5C, how about 2C, 2.5C, to 4C?
7,074 views posted Jan 5, 2026
It looks like global average temperature has already blown past 1.5C. When will we cross 2.0? 2.5? 3.0?, 3.5? and even 4.0?
I chat about what 5 different prestigious climate groups think? I summarize the spread, and the aggregate mean, and then give the Beckwith Superforecast:)
What do you think? Are you a superforecaster, or do you just think that you are?
We already passed 1.5C - happened, in last few years
When do we pass 2.0C. Group spread is 2034 to 2039 with mean of 2037. Beckwith guess 2033.
How about 2.5C. Group spread is 2044 to 2052 with mean of 2048. Beckwith guess is 2041.
OK, what about passing 3.0C. Group spread is 2054 to 2065 with mean of 2060. Beckwith superforecast is 2050.
Anybody for 3.5C. Group spread is 2065 to 2077 with mean of 2072. Beckwith guess is 2058.
Finally, when will we cross 4.0C. Group spread is 2075 to 2090 with mean of 2084. Beckwith guess is 2066.
Of course, a supervolcano (natural or induced:) will negate all this since humanity likes to eat food...
Links:
Table of crossing dates:
https://www.facebook.com/messenger_me...
Article: Global Warming has Accelerated Significantly
https://www.permalogica.com/post/glob...
Preprint of Scientific Paper: Global Warming has Accelerated Significantly
Abstract.
Recent record-hot years have caused a discussion whether global warming has accelerated, but previous analysis found that acceleration has not yet reached a 95% confidence level given the natural temperature variability. Here we account for the influence of three main natural variability
factors: El Niño, volcanism, and solar variation. The resulting adjusted data show that after 2015, global temperature rose significantly faster than in any previous 10-year period since 1945.
Link: https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/...
Perplexity.ai query: Tell me all about superforecasting
https://www.perplexity.ai/search/tell...
Good Judgement Research Group: The Science of Superforecasting
https://goodjudgment.com/about/the-sc...
Polymarket.com betting site: polymarket.com
Polymarket.com climate and science questions; Tech Questions
Polymarket Climate Bet:
Question: Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Present odds (check updates yourself)
First hottest year ever: 11% chance
Second hottest year: 37% chance
Third hottest year: 6.7% chance
Fourth hottest year: 45% chance
https://polymarket.com/event/where-wi...
Live long and prosper. Or at least survive... Paul Beckwith, Jan 5th, 2026
Year end - Year start GoFundMe: https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-paul-...
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
