Uploaded April 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
NEW: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation - AMOC to Weaken by 51% (Uncertainty 8%) by 2100
A few years ago, a paper analyzing results from many climate models (best at the time) argued that the chance of the AMOC )Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) slowing and stopping by 2100 was 32% (uncertainty a whopping 37%) with 90% certainty.
The newest findings in the new, just published peer reviewed scientific paper that I chat about in this video are 51% (with uncertainty a much smaller 8%).
Not good.
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References
Guardian article: Critical Atlantic current significantly more likely to collapse than thought
Scientists say finding is ‘very concerning’ as collapse would be catastrophic for Europe, Africa and the Americas
theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/15/critical-atlantic-current-significantly-more-likely-to-collapse-than-thought
Peer-reviewed paper in Science Advances journal: C L I M AT O L O G Y
Title: Observational constraints project a ~50% AMOC weakening by the end of this century
Authors: Valentin Portmann, Didier Swingedouw, Omar Khattab, Marie Chavent
Abstract
Climate models show considerable discrepancies in their future projections around the Atlantic, mainly due to uncertainties in the fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Climate models suggest a re-duction in AMOC strength of 32 ± 37% by 2100 (90% probability, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-4.5 scenario, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6). To refine this estimate and reduce its uncertainty, we use four different observational constraint methods. The best one, which provides the lowest leave-one-out error, integrates a large set of observable variables using ridge-regularized linear regression—a method unusual in climate science. It gives an estimate of the AMOC slowdown of 51 ± 8% (90% probability), i.e., a weakening ∼ 60% stronger than suggested by the multi-model mean. This refinement mainly results from correcting a bias in South Atlantic surface salinity, consistent with recent studies emphasizing its role in the proximity to an AMOC tipping point. This more substantial AMOC weakening has key implications for future adaptation strategies.
Direct link to free open-source peer reviewed scientific paper:
science.org/doi/epdf/10.1126/sciadv.adx4298
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
GoFundMe: gofundme.com/f/help-paul-continue-his-climate-emergency-research
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
NEW: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation - AMOC to Weaken by 51% (Uncertainty 8%) by 2100
A few years ago, a paper analyzing results from many climate models (best at the time) argued that the chance of the AMOC )Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) slowing and stopping by 2100 was 32% (uncertainty a whopping 37%) with 90% certainty.
The newest findings in the new, just published peer reviewed scientific paper that I chat about in this video are 51% (with uncertainty a much smaller 8%).
Not good.
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
GoFundMe: gofundme.com/f/help-paul-continue-his-climate-emergency-research
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
References
Guardian article: Critical Atlantic current significantly more likely to collapse than thought
Scientists say finding is ‘very concerning’ as collapse would be catastrophic for Europe, Africa and the Americas
theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/15/critical-atlantic-current-significantly-more-likely-to-collapse-than-thought
Peer-reviewed paper in Science Advances journal: C L I M AT O L O G Y
Title: Observational constraints project a ~50% AMOC weakening by the end of this century
Authors: Valentin Portmann, Didier Swingedouw, Omar Khattab, Marie Chavent
Abstract
Climate models show considerable discrepancies in their future projections around the Atlantic, mainly due to uncertainties in the fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Climate models suggest a re-duction in AMOC strength of 32 ± 37% by 2100 (90% probability, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-4.5 scenario, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6). To refine this estimate and reduce its uncertainty, we use four different observational constraint methods. The best one, which provides the lowest leave-one-out error, integrates a large set of observable variables using ridge-regularized linear regression—a method unusual in climate science. It gives an estimate of the AMOC slowdown of 51 ± 8% (90% probability), i.e., a weakening ∼ 60% stronger than suggested by the multi-model mean. This refinement mainly results from correcting a bias in South Atlantic surface salinity, consistent with recent studies emphasizing its role in the proximity to an AMOC tipping point. This more substantial AMOC weakening has key implications for future adaptation strategies.
Direct link to free open-source peer reviewed scientific paper:
science.org/doi/epdf/10.1126/sciadv.adx4298
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
GoFundMe: gofundme.com/f/help-paul-continue-his-climate-emergency-research
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
