Uploaded March 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
AMOC Updates - Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Measurements, Modelling, Theory and More
A new peer-reviewed scientific journal paper on the AMOC was just published online in the last few days. It is a great review of the latest scientific knowledge on what we know about the risks of an AMOC severe shutdown or collapse.
Essentially, the paper concludes that there is AMOC - Multi-Stability (MS), or in plain English it determines that there are essentially two quasi-stationary states: namely what we have now (AMOC-on) and what we could tip over to (AMOC-off). Each of these worlds is quite different.
The paper also discusses the various ways in which we can go from one state to the other, and the idea of hysteresis. Basically, if we pass the tipping point and move to the AMOC-off state even reversing temperature to back off the threshold for tipping may not bring us back to the AMOC-on state for decades to centuries or even longer.
Also discussed are the in-situ direct observations of ocean currents at various latitudes, what we can determine from climate reanalysis of data sets, what the various models over the years can show, and what the physics says about the AMOC.
A complicated paper, for sure, but a very important one that I have tried to bring some understanding too.
Cheers,
Paul
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
References and Links:
Stefan Rahmstorf post in X:
https://x.com/rahmstorf/status/2038640202294477264?sort_replies=recency
Stefan Rahmstorf post in Bluesky:
https://bsky.app/profile/rahmstorf.bsky.social/post/3mibxw35jqs2y
Peer-reviewed scientific paper posted in Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
(free, open-source)
Title: Multi-Stability of the Present-Day Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Link: wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/wcc.70049
ABSTRACT
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a key role in the climate system, especially in the global meridional heat transport. Historical reconstructions indicate that the AMOC has weakened by about 15% since the mid-20th century. Paleoclimate records, ocean theory, as well as a hierarchy of climate models suggest that the AMOC is a tipping element, sensitive to changes in buoyancy fluxes at the air-sea interface, and could transition into a substantially weaker or fully collapsed state. Such a transition would have significant climate impacts on decadal to centennial timescales, potentially exceeding societal adaptability. Assessing the probability of such a transition, particularly before 2100, requires evaluating whether a collapsed AMOC state is possible under current forcing conditions. While conceptual and intermediate-complexity models have long identified collapsed states, comprehensive global climate models have only recently done so. Based on integrating model diagnostics with observations and current AMOC theory this review article critically evaluates the current arguments for and against the evidence of a multi-stable AMOC regime. We conclude that the evidence base in favor of such a regime has broadened over the last years and that the present-day AMOC is in such a regime.
Image of Key AMOC ocean currents: researchgate.net/figure/Schematic-of-key-AMOC-related-components-of-the-North-Atlantic-Ocean-modified-from_fig2_335091674
Wikipedia map of AMOC: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_meridional_overturning_circulation#/media/File:OCP07_Fig-6.jpg
Wikipedia on Dansgaard - Oeschger Oscillations:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dansgaard%E2%80%93Oeschger_event
Query: How does AMOC slowing change the ITCZ?
perplexity.ai/search/how-does-amoc-slowing-change-t-o61EMobFT9Omm.u0vmR77A
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
AMOC Updates - Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Measurements, Modelling, Theory and More
A new peer-reviewed scientific journal paper on the AMOC was just published online in the last few days. It is a great review of the latest scientific knowledge on what we know about the risks of an AMOC severe shutdown or collapse.
Essentially, the paper concludes that there is AMOC - Multi-Stability (MS), or in plain English it determines that there are essentially two quasi-stationary states: namely what we have now (AMOC-on) and what we could tip over to (AMOC-off). Each of these worlds is quite different.
The paper also discusses the various ways in which we can go from one state to the other, and the idea of hysteresis. Basically, if we pass the tipping point and move to the AMOC-off state even reversing temperature to back off the threshold for tipping may not bring us back to the AMOC-on state for decades to centuries or even longer.
Also discussed are the in-situ direct observations of ocean currents at various latitudes, what we can determine from climate reanalysis of data sets, what the various models over the years can show, and what the physics says about the AMOC.
A complicated paper, for sure, but a very important one that I have tried to bring some understanding too.
Cheers,
Paul
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
References and Links:
Stefan Rahmstorf post in X:
https://x.com/rahmstorf/status/2038640202294477264?sort_replies=recency
Stefan Rahmstorf post in Bluesky:
https://bsky.app/profile/rahmstorf.bsky.social/post/3mibxw35jqs2y
Peer-reviewed scientific paper posted in Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
(free, open-source)
Title: Multi-Stability of the Present-Day Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Link: wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/wcc.70049
ABSTRACT
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a key role in the climate system, especially in the global meridional heat transport. Historical reconstructions indicate that the AMOC has weakened by about 15% since the mid-20th century. Paleoclimate records, ocean theory, as well as a hierarchy of climate models suggest that the AMOC is a tipping element, sensitive to changes in buoyancy fluxes at the air-sea interface, and could transition into a substantially weaker or fully collapsed state. Such a transition would have significant climate impacts on decadal to centennial timescales, potentially exceeding societal adaptability. Assessing the probability of such a transition, particularly before 2100, requires evaluating whether a collapsed AMOC state is possible under current forcing conditions. While conceptual and intermediate-complexity models have long identified collapsed states, comprehensive global climate models have only recently done so. Based on integrating model diagnostics with observations and current AMOC theory this review article critically evaluates the current arguments for and against the evidence of a multi-stable AMOC regime. We conclude that the evidence base in favor of such a regime has broadened over the last years and that the present-day AMOC is in such a regime.
Image of Key AMOC ocean currents: researchgate.net/figure/Schematic-of-key-AMOC-related-components-of-the-North-Atlantic-Ocean-modified-from_fig2_335091674
Wikipedia map of AMOC: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_meridional_overturning_circulation#/media/File:OCP07_Fig-6.jpg
Wikipedia on Dansgaard - Oeschger Oscillations:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dansgaard%E2%80%93Oeschger_event
Query: How does AMOC slowing change the ITCZ?
perplexity.ai/search/how-does-amoc-slowing-change-t-o61EMobFT9Omm.u0vmR77A
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
