Uploaded August 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
Heatwaves Around the Planet are Killing Millions of People - We Use Two Methods to Determine Numbers
Like all extreme weather events, heatwaves around the planet are increasing in frequency, severity, and duration, and are occurring in regions where they did not occur before.
Over many years, I have explained how the increasing waviness of the jet stream from climate change disruption is the root cause.
It is very important for us to know how many people are killed by these heat waves. It is very rare that a death certificate lists the cause of the death as a heat wave. So how do we count heat wave deaths?
Scientists use two different, independent methods to determine this.
(1) The first is simply to count Excess-Mortality. You take the total number of deaths during the heatwave and subtract the baseline number of deaths for that time of year without any heatwave. The difference is the Excess-Mortality.
(2) The second method is to use the Temperature Exposure method. For a given temperature rise during previous heatwaves you determine the number of mortalities. Then, with this statistical method, the next time there is a heatwave and you know the expected temperature rise of the heatwave you can estimate the number of heatwave deaths that you expect.
In the case of UK mortalities during heatwaves in the spring of this year, those two methods yielded numbers that were very close in agreement.
If you are in a heatwave, stay well hydrated, get plenty of rest, and seek cooler indoor spaces.
Sincerely,
Paul
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
GoFundMe: gofundme.com/f/help-paul-continue-his-climate-emergency-research
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
References and Links:
Nature Article:
Heatwaves have killed millions. Here’s how scientists tally lives lost
Two very different methods are used to estimate the human toll of heatwaves such as those now hitting parts of Asia and Europe.
Link: nature.com/articles/d41586-026-02430-7
Nature Article:
Extreme heat harms health — what is the human body’s limit?
As deadly heatwaves become more common, researchers are studying what people can tolerate.
Link: nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02482-z
Nature Article:
Extreme heatwaves: surprising lessons from the record warmth
Unprecedented temperatures are coming faster and more furiously than researchers expected, raising questions about what to anticipate in the future.
Link: nature.com/articles/d41586-022-02114-y
Nature Article:
Even moderate heat strains the human heart
People can experience cardiovascular strain — a progressive increase in heart rate — before their internal temperatures are affected.
Link: nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02233-0
UK Government Article:
UKHSA report shows 2,877 excess deaths caused by May and June heatwaves
The 2,877 excess deaths represents a significant increase on the 1,504 excess deaths observed in summer 2025.
Link: gov.uk/government/news/ukhsa-report-shows-2877-excess-deaths-caused-by-may-and-june-heatwaves
UK Health Security Agency Report: pdf - 82 page report
Adverse Weather and Health Plan Protecting Health from Weather Related Harm
2026 to 2027
Link: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69cbbd2b024cdf09254f3f57/Adverse_Weather_and_Health_Plan_2026_2027.pdf
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
GoFundMe: gofundme.com/f/help-paul-continue-his-climate-emergency-research
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
Heatwaves Around the Planet are Killing Millions of People - We Use Two Methods to Determine Numbers
Like all extreme weather events, heatwaves around the planet are increasing in frequency, severity, and duration, and are occurring in regions where they did not occur before.
Over many years, I have explained how the increasing waviness of the jet stream from climate change disruption is the root cause.
It is very important for us to know how many people are killed by these heat waves. It is very rare that a death certificate lists the cause of the death as a heat wave. So how do we count heat wave deaths?
Scientists use two different, independent methods to determine this.
(1) The first is simply to count Excess-Mortality. You take the total number of deaths during the heatwave and subtract the baseline number of deaths for that time of year without any heatwave. The difference is the Excess-Mortality.
(2) The second method is to use the Temperature Exposure method. For a given temperature rise during previous heatwaves you determine the number of mortalities. Then, with this statistical method, the next time there is a heatwave and you know the expected temperature rise of the heatwave you can estimate the number of heatwave deaths that you expect.
In the case of UK mortalities during heatwaves in the spring of this year, those two methods yielded numbers that were very close in agreement.
If you are in a heatwave, stay well hydrated, get plenty of rest, and seek cooler indoor spaces.
Sincerely,
Paul
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
GoFundMe: gofundme.com/f/help-paul-continue-his-climate-emergency-research
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
References and Links:
Nature Article:
Heatwaves have killed millions. Here’s how scientists tally lives lost
Two very different methods are used to estimate the human toll of heatwaves such as those now hitting parts of Asia and Europe.
Link: nature.com/articles/d41586-026-02430-7
Nature Article:
Extreme heat harms health — what is the human body’s limit?
As deadly heatwaves become more common, researchers are studying what people can tolerate.
Link: nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02482-z
Nature Article:
Extreme heatwaves: surprising lessons from the record warmth
Unprecedented temperatures are coming faster and more furiously than researchers expected, raising questions about what to anticipate in the future.
Link: nature.com/articles/d41586-022-02114-y
Nature Article:
Even moderate heat strains the human heart
People can experience cardiovascular strain — a progressive increase in heart rate — before their internal temperatures are affected.
Link: nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02233-0
UK Government Article:
UKHSA report shows 2,877 excess deaths caused by May and June heatwaves
The 2,877 excess deaths represents a significant increase on the 1,504 excess deaths observed in summer 2025.
Link: gov.uk/government/news/ukhsa-report-shows-2877-excess-deaths-caused-by-may-and-june-heatwaves
UK Health Security Agency Report: pdf - 82 page report
Adverse Weather and Health Plan Protecting Health from Weather Related Harm
2026 to 2027
Link: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69cbbd2b024cdf09254f3f57/Adverse_Weather_and_Health_Plan_2026_2027.pdf
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
GoFundMe: gofundme.com/f/help-paul-continue-his-climate-emergency-research
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
