Uploaded November 2025 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
First Emergence of Unprecedented Global Water Scarcity in Anthropocene: Megacity Tehran Under Threat
We are very close to completely running out of water in a global megacity. Very close...
2025 Tehran, Iran, 20 million people in area, is only one month away from zero water (taps running dry), reservoirs 5% capacity, sixth year of worst drought in 60 years, may force move of capital
2024 Mexico City, Mexico: mega-city came very close to running out of water. What will 22 million people do when taps run dry?
2019 Chennai, India home to 10 million people faced crisis as reservoirs ran dry
2018 Cape Town, South Africa came within a few days of 'Day Zero' where the water supply of the city would be completely empty, one in 384 year drought, Study concluded that "climate change made this event five to six times more likely relative to the early 20th century"
2015, Sao Paulo, Brazil, 21 million people in area, reservoirs 6% capacity, worst drought in 80 years, lack of water from Amazon Rainforest
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Links:
BNE Intellinews article: evacuating Tehran??
Day zero approaches Tehran as water reserves drop below 5%
"Tehran will face water rationing from December if rainfall does not arrive, with the possibility of evacuating the capital if drought conditions persist, President Masoud Pezeshkian warned on November 6 to startled audiences."
intellinews.com/day-zero-aproaches-tehran-as-water-reserves-drop-below-5-410347/?source=Iran
BNE Intellinews article:
TEHRAN BLOG: 200 days without rain
"The capital, home to more than 8mn people, hasn't seen meaningful rainfall for 200 days. The last proper rain fell in early May. With over 40 autumn days elapsed and still no downpours, local meteorologists are warning that significant rainfall is unlikely before December. This is probably a new record, and not a good one."
intellinews.com/tehran-blog-200-days-without-rain-409562/?source=iran
Maps of Iran:
worldatlas.com/maps/iran
britannica.com/place/Iran
BlueSky link to water drought in megacities post:
https://bsky.app/profile/thierryaaron.bsky.social/post/3m564qsjqm227
WWF article:
Cities across the globe face an alarming rise in water risks and must urgently invest in enhanced resilience, according to new WWF scenario analysis
- 100 cities facing the greatest rise in water risks by 2050 are home to 350 million people
- Almost half the cities are in China, with other hotspots in South Asia, Middle East, South America and Africa
- India dominates both current and future lists of cities with the highest overall water risk
wwfindia.org/?19602/Cities-across-the-globe-face-an-alarming-rise-in-water-risks
WWF risk filters for biodiversity and for water:
riskfilter.org
WWF risk filter for water:
riskfilter.org/water/home
Peer reviewed scientific article in journal Nature Communications: Open Source (free access)
The first emergence of unprecedented global water scarcity in the Anthropocene
nature.com/articles/s41467-025-63784-6
Abstract
Access to water is crucial for all aspects of life. Anthropogenic global warming is projected to disrupt the hydrological cycle, leading to water scarcity. However, the timing and hotspot regions of unprecedented water scarcity are unknown. Here, we estimate the Time of First Emergence (ToFE) of drought driven water scarcity events, referred to as “Day Zero Drought” (DZD), which arises from hydrological compound extremes, including prolonged rainfall deficits, reduced river flow, and increasing water consumption. Using a probabilistic framework and a large ensemble of climate simulations, we attribute the timing and likelihood of DZD events to human influence. Many
regions, including major reservoirs, may face high risk of DZD by the 2020s and 2030s. Despite model and scenario uncertainties, consistent DZD hotspots emerge across the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and parts of North America. Urban populations are particularly vulnerable at the 1.5 °C warming level. The length of time between successive DZD events is shorter than the duration of DZD, limiting recovery periods and exacerbating water scarcity risks. Therefore, more proactive water strategies are urgently needed to avoid severe societal impacts of DZD.
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
First Emergence of Unprecedented Global Water Scarcity in Anthropocene: Megacity Tehran Under Threat
We are very close to completely running out of water in a global megacity. Very close...
2025 Tehran, Iran, 20 million people in area, is only one month away from zero water (taps running dry), reservoirs 5% capacity, sixth year of worst drought in 60 years, may force move of capital
2024 Mexico City, Mexico: mega-city came very close to running out of water. What will 22 million people do when taps run dry?
2019 Chennai, India home to 10 million people faced crisis as reservoirs ran dry
2018 Cape Town, South Africa came within a few days of 'Day Zero' where the water supply of the city would be completely empty, one in 384 year drought, Study concluded that "climate change made this event five to six times more likely relative to the early 20th century"
2015, Sao Paulo, Brazil, 21 million people in area, reservoirs 6% capacity, worst drought in 80 years, lack of water from Amazon Rainforest
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Links:
BNE Intellinews article: evacuating Tehran??
Day zero approaches Tehran as water reserves drop below 5%
"Tehran will face water rationing from December if rainfall does not arrive, with the possibility of evacuating the capital if drought conditions persist, President Masoud Pezeshkian warned on November 6 to startled audiences."
intellinews.com/day-zero-aproaches-tehran-as-water-reserves-drop-below-5-410347/?source=Iran
BNE Intellinews article:
TEHRAN BLOG: 200 days without rain
"The capital, home to more than 8mn people, hasn't seen meaningful rainfall for 200 days. The last proper rain fell in early May. With over 40 autumn days elapsed and still no downpours, local meteorologists are warning that significant rainfall is unlikely before December. This is probably a new record, and not a good one."
intellinews.com/tehran-blog-200-days-without-rain-409562/?source=iran
Maps of Iran:
worldatlas.com/maps/iran
britannica.com/place/Iran
BlueSky link to water drought in megacities post:
https://bsky.app/profile/thierryaaron.bsky.social/post/3m564qsjqm227
WWF article:
Cities across the globe face an alarming rise in water risks and must urgently invest in enhanced resilience, according to new WWF scenario analysis
- 100 cities facing the greatest rise in water risks by 2050 are home to 350 million people
- Almost half the cities are in China, with other hotspots in South Asia, Middle East, South America and Africa
- India dominates both current and future lists of cities with the highest overall water risk
wwfindia.org/?19602/Cities-across-the-globe-face-an-alarming-rise-in-water-risks
WWF risk filters for biodiversity and for water:
riskfilter.org
WWF risk filter for water:
riskfilter.org/water/home
Peer reviewed scientific article in journal Nature Communications: Open Source (free access)
The first emergence of unprecedented global water scarcity in the Anthropocene
nature.com/articles/s41467-025-63784-6
Abstract
Access to water is crucial for all aspects of life. Anthropogenic global warming is projected to disrupt the hydrological cycle, leading to water scarcity. However, the timing and hotspot regions of unprecedented water scarcity are unknown. Here, we estimate the Time of First Emergence (ToFE) of drought driven water scarcity events, referred to as “Day Zero Drought” (DZD), which arises from hydrological compound extremes, including prolonged rainfall deficits, reduced river flow, and increasing water consumption. Using a probabilistic framework and a large ensemble of climate simulations, we attribute the timing and likelihood of DZD events to human influence. Many
regions, including major reservoirs, may face high risk of DZD by the 2020s and 2030s. Despite model and scenario uncertainties, consistent DZD hotspots emerge across the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and parts of North America. Urban populations are particularly vulnerable at the 1.5 °C warming level. The length of time between successive DZD events is shorter than the duration of DZD, limiting recovery periods and exacerbating water scarcity risks. Therefore, more proactive water strategies are urgently needed to avoid severe societal impacts of DZD.
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
