Uploaded October 2014 | Updated September 2026, 1 week ago
All studies cited…
New study reviewed
Kashcheev et al. (2014). Incidence and mortality of solid cancer among emergency workers of the Chernobyl accident: assessment of radiation risks for the follow-up period of 1992-2009. Radiation and Environmental Biophysics. Oct 15. pubmed.gov/25315643
Meta-analyses of radiation-worker studies cited @ 1:56
Jacob et al. (2009). Is cancer risk of radiation workers larger than expected? Occupational and Environmental Medicine, 66(12):789–96. pubmed.gov/19570756
Relevant quote of Jacob: "The ICRP and BEIR VII base their DDREFs mainly on radiobiological results including animal data, which, in their majority, suggest a characteristically low risk for low-dose-rate exposures. It remains an open question as to why this characteristic is apparently not reflected in the human epidemiological data."
Cardis et al. (2007). The 15-Country Collaborative Study of Cancer Risk among Radiation Workers in the Nuclear Industry: estimates of radiation-related cancer risks. Radiation Research, 167(4):396-416. pubmed.gov/17388693
Relevant quote of Cardis: "Risk estimates per unit dose from this study are statistically compatible with estimates that serve as the basis for current radiation protection standards. They range from values lower than the BEIR VII estimates up to values that exceed these estimates by a factor of about six for both solid cancers and leukemia. This is the largest analytical epidemiological study of the effects of low-dose protracted exposures to ionizing radiation to date."
So the radiation-worker epidemiology (involving slow-dose rates) match or exceed the risk of BEIR VII, which is based on the atomic-bomb cohort (involving a fast-dose rate). So it seems dubious that slow dose rates are less harmful, and Kashcheev (2014) adds to that impression.
Other Chernobyl worker solid-cancer studies cited @ 2:05
Rahu et al. (2013). Site-specific cancer risk in the Baltic cohort of Chernobyl cleanup workers, 1986-2007. Eur J Cancer. 2013 Sep;49(13):2926-33. pubmed.gov/23683549
Prysyazhnyuk et al. (2007). Twenty years after the Chernobyl accident: solid cancer incidence in various groups of the Ukrainian population. Radiat Environ Biophys. 46(1):43-51. pubmed.gov/17279359
Ivanov (2007). Late cancer and noncancer risks among Chernobyl emergency workers of Russia. Health Phys. 93(5):470-9. pubmed.gov/18049223
Ivanov et at. (2004). Solid cancer incidence among the Chernobyl emergency workers residing in Russia: estimation of radiation risks. Radiat Environ Biophys. 43(1):35-42. pubmed.gov/14762668
Graph of A-bomb solid-cancer latency @ 2:31 derived from
Douple et al. (2011). Long-term radiation-related health effects in a unique human population: lessons learned from the atomic bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Disaster Med Public Health Prep, 5 Suppl 1:S122-33. pubmed.gov/21402804
Historic insights into A-bomb cohort @ 2:54
Beebe et al. (1971). Studies of the Mortality of A-Bomb Survivors 4. Mortality and radiation dose, 1950-1966. Radiation Research, 48(3):613-649. pubmed.gov/5137468
Graph & chart on required sample size @ 5:21 & 6:29
Brenner et al. (2003). Cancer risks attributable to low doses of ionizing radiation: Assessing what we really know. PNAS, 100(24):13761–66.
pnas.org/content/100/24/13761.full.pdf
National Research Council (1995). Radiation Dose Reconstruction for Epidemiologic Uses. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, p. 73. http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=4760&page=73
Estimate of Chernobyl death tolls @ 8:11 from
European Environmental Agency (2013). Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation. EEA Report 1/2013, Chap 18, p. 435, European Environmental Agency, Copenhagen. http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/late-lessons-2
.
All studies cited…
New study reviewed
Kashcheev et al. (2014). Incidence and mortality of solid cancer among emergency workers of the Chernobyl accident: assessment of radiation risks for the follow-up period of 1992-2009. Radiation and Environmental Biophysics. Oct 15. pubmed.gov/25315643
Meta-analyses of radiation-worker studies cited @ 1:56
Jacob et al. (2009). Is cancer risk of radiation workers larger than expected? Occupational and Environmental Medicine, 66(12):789–96. pubmed.gov/19570756
Relevant quote of Jacob: "The ICRP and BEIR VII base their DDREFs mainly on radiobiological results including animal data, which, in their majority, suggest a characteristically low risk for low-dose-rate exposures. It remains an open question as to why this characteristic is apparently not reflected in the human epidemiological data."
Cardis et al. (2007). The 15-Country Collaborative Study of Cancer Risk among Radiation Workers in the Nuclear Industry: estimates of radiation-related cancer risks. Radiation Research, 167(4):396-416. pubmed.gov/17388693
Relevant quote of Cardis: "Risk estimates per unit dose from this study are statistically compatible with estimates that serve as the basis for current radiation protection standards. They range from values lower than the BEIR VII estimates up to values that exceed these estimates by a factor of about six for both solid cancers and leukemia. This is the largest analytical epidemiological study of the effects of low-dose protracted exposures to ionizing radiation to date."
So the radiation-worker epidemiology (involving slow-dose rates) match or exceed the risk of BEIR VII, which is based on the atomic-bomb cohort (involving a fast-dose rate). So it seems dubious that slow dose rates are less harmful, and Kashcheev (2014) adds to that impression.
Other Chernobyl worker solid-cancer studies cited @ 2:05
Rahu et al. (2013). Site-specific cancer risk in the Baltic cohort of Chernobyl cleanup workers, 1986-2007. Eur J Cancer. 2013 Sep;49(13):2926-33. pubmed.gov/23683549
Prysyazhnyuk et al. (2007). Twenty years after the Chernobyl accident: solid cancer incidence in various groups of the Ukrainian population. Radiat Environ Biophys. 46(1):43-51. pubmed.gov/17279359
Ivanov (2007). Late cancer and noncancer risks among Chernobyl emergency workers of Russia. Health Phys. 93(5):470-9. pubmed.gov/18049223
Ivanov et at. (2004). Solid cancer incidence among the Chernobyl emergency workers residing in Russia: estimation of radiation risks. Radiat Environ Biophys. 43(1):35-42. pubmed.gov/14762668
Graph of A-bomb solid-cancer latency @ 2:31 derived from
Douple et al. (2011). Long-term radiation-related health effects in a unique human population: lessons learned from the atomic bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Disaster Med Public Health Prep, 5 Suppl 1:S122-33. pubmed.gov/21402804
Historic insights into A-bomb cohort @ 2:54
Beebe et al. (1971). Studies of the Mortality of A-Bomb Survivors 4. Mortality and radiation dose, 1950-1966. Radiation Research, 48(3):613-649. pubmed.gov/5137468
Graph & chart on required sample size @ 5:21 & 6:29
Brenner et al. (2003). Cancer risks attributable to low doses of ionizing radiation: Assessing what we really know. PNAS, 100(24):13761–66.
pnas.org/content/100/24/13761.full.pdf
National Research Council (1995). Radiation Dose Reconstruction for Epidemiologic Uses. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, p. 73. http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=4760&page=73
Estimate of Chernobyl death tolls @ 8:11 from
European Environmental Agency (2013). Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation. EEA Report 1/2013, Chap 18, p. 435, European Environmental Agency, Copenhagen. http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/late-lessons-2
.



![Lockdowns Work According to Science
Peer-review studies of Covid-19 lockdowns cited...
Taghrir et al (2020), Efficacy of Mass Quarantine as Leverage of Health System Governance During COVID-19 Outbreak: A Mini Policy Review: “We found good quality evidence for the effectiveness of mass quarantine during the current stage of COVID-19 pandemic, and these strategies seem to have been highly effective in controlling the spread of the disease.” https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32271600/
Tobías (2020), Evaluation of the Lockdowns for the SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic in Italy and Spain After One Month Follow Up: “Lockdown, including restricted social contact and keeping open only those businesses essential to the country’s supply chains, has had a beneficial effect in both countries. The trend slopes were considerably reduced for all the outcomes.” https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32304973/
Lau et al (2020), The Positive Impact of Lockdown in Wuhan on Containing the COVID-19 Outbreak in China: “A significantly decreased growth rate and increased doubling time of cases was observed, which is most likely due to Chinese lockdown measures. A more stringent confinement of people in high risk areas seem to have a potential to slow down the spread of COVID-19.” https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32181488/
Signorelli et al (2020), COVID-19 in Italy: Impact of Containment Measures and Prevalence Estimates of Infection in the General Population: “Data shows that, among these measures, the lockdown implemented as of 9 March had a positive impact, in particular the central and southern regions of Italy, while other actions appeared to be less effective.” https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32275287/
Ji et al (2020), Lockdown Contained the Spread of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease in Huangshi City, China: Early Epidemiological Findings: “Lockdown and nonpharmaceutical interventions effectively contained the progression of COVID-19 in Huangshi city, China. Feb 1 (day 9 of lockdown) was identified as the ‘turning point’ as the epidemic faded soon.” https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32255183/
Modeling studies of lockdowns for Covid-19
Chatterjee et al (2020), Healthcare Impact of COVID-19 Epidemic in India: A Stochastic Mathematical Model: “The impact of Non-Pharmacological Interventions (NPI) including social distancing and lockdown on checking the epidemic was estimated […] immediate institution of NPIs, total cases, hospitalizations, ICU requirements and deaths can be reduced by almost 90%.” https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32292232/
Zhang et al (2020), Predicting Turning Point, Duration and Attack Rate of COVID-19 Outbreaks in Major Western Countries: “if there were no major enforcement actions on control strategies such as lockdowns, social distancing, stay-home-advises/orders, then the COVID-19 would have spread exponentially. For example, the total confirmed cases in the USA would have passed 1,000,000 on April 05, 2020.” https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32313405/
Bonus Studies! Pre-press (ie, not yet peer-reviewed) studies on lockdown efficacy I did not cite in the video:
Roques et al (2020), Effect of a one-month lockdown on the epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 in France: “We estimate the effect of the lockdown in France on the contact rate and the effective reproduction number Re of the COVID-19. We obtain a reduction by a factor 7 (Re=0.47, 95%-CI: 0.45-0.50), compared to the estimates carried out in France at the early stage of the epidemic.” https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.21.20074054v1
Hyafil & Morina (2020), Analysis of the impact of lockdown on the evolution Covid-19 epidemics in Spain: “being able to implement interventions at the earliest stage is crucial to minimise the impact of a potential infectious threat.” https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.18.20070862v1
Alfano & Ercolano (2020), Shut it down: a cross country panel analysis on the efficacy of lockdown measures: “The large differences found in the speed of propagation of the disease show us that being able to implement interventions at the earliest stage is crucial to minimise the impact of a potential infectious threat.” https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.12.20062695v1
Spanish flu of 1918 studies
@ 1:34 Markel et al (2007) Nonpharmaceutical Interventions
Implemented by US Cities
During the 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17684187/
Yu et al, (2017): https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5507503/pdf/pone.0180545.pdf
Hatchett et al (2020): https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/104/18/7582.full.pdf
@ 4:04 My forecast that came to pass based on listening to field-specific scientists @ https://youtu.be/7SXIzVinKB0?t=616 Lockdowns Work According to Science](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/YniDz6638xA/mqdefault.jpg)






