Uploaded May 2020 | Updated September 2026, 1 week ago
Peer-review studies of Covid-19 lockdowns cited...
Taghrir et al (2020), Efficacy of Mass Quarantine as Leverage of Health System Governance During COVID-19 Outbreak: A Mini Policy Review: “We found good quality evidence for the effectiveness of mass quarantine during the current stage of COVID-19 pandemic, and these strategies seem to have been highly effective in controlling the spread of the disease.” pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32271600
Tobías (2020), Evaluation of the Lockdowns for the SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic in Italy and Spain After One Month Follow Up: “Lockdown, including restricted social contact and keeping open only those businesses essential to the country’s supply chains, has had a beneficial effect in both countries. The trend slopes were considerably reduced for all the outcomes.” pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32304973
Lau et al (2020), The Positive Impact of Lockdown in Wuhan on Containing the COVID-19 Outbreak in China: “A significantly decreased growth rate and increased doubling time of cases was observed, which is most likely due to Chinese lockdown measures. A more stringent confinement of people in high risk areas seem to have a potential to slow down the spread of COVID-19.” pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32181488
Signorelli et al (2020), COVID-19 in Italy: Impact of Containment Measures and Prevalence Estimates of Infection in the General Population: “Data shows that, among these measures, the lockdown implemented as of 9 March had a positive impact, in particular the central and southern regions of Italy, while other actions appeared to be less effective.” pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32275287
Ji et al (2020), Lockdown Contained the Spread of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease in Huangshi City, China: Early Epidemiological Findings: “Lockdown and nonpharmaceutical interventions effectively contained the progression of COVID-19 in Huangshi city, China. Feb 1 (day 9 of lockdown) was identified as the ‘turning point’ as the epidemic faded soon.” pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32255183
Modeling studies of lockdowns for Covid-19
Chatterjee et al (2020), Healthcare Impact of COVID-19 Epidemic in India: A Stochastic Mathematical Model: “The impact of Non-Pharmacological Interventions (NPI) including social distancing and lockdown on checking the epidemic was estimated […] immediate institution of NPIs, total cases, hospitalizations, ICU requirements and deaths can be reduced by almost 90%.” pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32292232
Zhang et al (2020), Predicting Turning Point, Duration and Attack Rate of COVID-19 Outbreaks in Major Western Countries: “if there were no major enforcement actions on control strategies such as lockdowns, social distancing, stay-home-advises/orders, then the COVID-19 would have spread exponentially. For example, the total confirmed cases in the USA would have passed 1,000,000 on April 05, 2020.” pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32313405
Bonus Studies! Pre-press (ie, not yet peer-reviewed) studies on lockdown efficacy I did not cite in the video:
Roques et al (2020), Effect of a one-month lockdown on the epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 in France: “We estimate the effect of the lockdown in France on the contact rate and the effective reproduction number Re of the COVID-19. We obtain a reduction by a factor 7 (Re=0.47, 95%-CI: 0.45-0.50), compared to the estimates carried out in France at the early stage of the epidemic.” medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.21.20074054v1
Hyafil & Morina (2020), Analysis of the impact of lockdown on the evolution Covid-19 epidemics in Spain: “being able to implement interventions at the earliest stage is crucial to minimise the impact of a potential infectious threat.” medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.18.20070862v1
Alfano & Ercolano (2020), Shut it down: a cross country panel analysis on the efficacy of lockdown measures: “The large differences found in the speed of propagation of the disease show us that being able to implement interventions at the earliest stage is crucial to minimise the impact of a potential infectious threat.” medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.12.20062695v1
Spanish flu of 1918 studies
@ 1:34 Markel et al (2007) Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Implemented by US Cities During the 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17684187
Yu et al, (2017): ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5507503/pdf/pone.0180545.pdf
Hatchett et al (2020): pnas.org/content/pnas/104/18/7582.full.pdf
@ 4:04 My forecast that came to pass based on listening to field-specific scientists @ youtu.be/7SXIzVinKB0?t=616
Peer-review studies of Covid-19 lockdowns cited...
Taghrir et al (2020), Efficacy of Mass Quarantine as Leverage of Health System Governance During COVID-19 Outbreak: A Mini Policy Review: “We found good quality evidence for the effectiveness of mass quarantine during the current stage of COVID-19 pandemic, and these strategies seem to have been highly effective in controlling the spread of the disease.” pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32271600
Tobías (2020), Evaluation of the Lockdowns for the SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic in Italy and Spain After One Month Follow Up: “Lockdown, including restricted social contact and keeping open only those businesses essential to the country’s supply chains, has had a beneficial effect in both countries. The trend slopes were considerably reduced for all the outcomes.” pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32304973
Lau et al (2020), The Positive Impact of Lockdown in Wuhan on Containing the COVID-19 Outbreak in China: “A significantly decreased growth rate and increased doubling time of cases was observed, which is most likely due to Chinese lockdown measures. A more stringent confinement of people in high risk areas seem to have a potential to slow down the spread of COVID-19.” pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32181488
Signorelli et al (2020), COVID-19 in Italy: Impact of Containment Measures and Prevalence Estimates of Infection in the General Population: “Data shows that, among these measures, the lockdown implemented as of 9 March had a positive impact, in particular the central and southern regions of Italy, while other actions appeared to be less effective.” pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32275287
Ji et al (2020), Lockdown Contained the Spread of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease in Huangshi City, China: Early Epidemiological Findings: “Lockdown and nonpharmaceutical interventions effectively contained the progression of COVID-19 in Huangshi city, China. Feb 1 (day 9 of lockdown) was identified as the ‘turning point’ as the epidemic faded soon.” pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32255183
Modeling studies of lockdowns for Covid-19
Chatterjee et al (2020), Healthcare Impact of COVID-19 Epidemic in India: A Stochastic Mathematical Model: “The impact of Non-Pharmacological Interventions (NPI) including social distancing and lockdown on checking the epidemic was estimated […] immediate institution of NPIs, total cases, hospitalizations, ICU requirements and deaths can be reduced by almost 90%.” pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32292232
Zhang et al (2020), Predicting Turning Point, Duration and Attack Rate of COVID-19 Outbreaks in Major Western Countries: “if there were no major enforcement actions on control strategies such as lockdowns, social distancing, stay-home-advises/orders, then the COVID-19 would have spread exponentially. For example, the total confirmed cases in the USA would have passed 1,000,000 on April 05, 2020.” pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32313405
Bonus Studies! Pre-press (ie, not yet peer-reviewed) studies on lockdown efficacy I did not cite in the video:
Roques et al (2020), Effect of a one-month lockdown on the epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 in France: “We estimate the effect of the lockdown in France on the contact rate and the effective reproduction number Re of the COVID-19. We obtain a reduction by a factor 7 (Re=0.47, 95%-CI: 0.45-0.50), compared to the estimates carried out in France at the early stage of the epidemic.” medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.21.20074054v1
Hyafil & Morina (2020), Analysis of the impact of lockdown on the evolution Covid-19 epidemics in Spain: “being able to implement interventions at the earliest stage is crucial to minimise the impact of a potential infectious threat.” medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.18.20070862v1
Alfano & Ercolano (2020), Shut it down: a cross country panel analysis on the efficacy of lockdown measures: “The large differences found in the speed of propagation of the disease show us that being able to implement interventions at the earliest stage is crucial to minimise the impact of a potential infectious threat.” medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.12.20062695v1
Spanish flu of 1918 studies
@ 1:34 Markel et al (2007) Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Implemented by US Cities During the 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17684187
Yu et al, (2017): ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5507503/pdf/pone.0180545.pdf
Hatchett et al (2020): pnas.org/content/pnas/104/18/7582.full.pdf
@ 4:04 My forecast that came to pass based on listening to field-specific scientists @ youtu.be/7SXIzVinKB0?t=616
