Uploaded June 2025 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
In this episode, Nik is joined by TBL's lead statistician Augustine Carrasco for a walkthrough of the latest TBL chart pack, covering the key macro and on-chain dynamics shaping Bitcoin’s current structure. They explore long-term holding returns through the lens of Unchained’s HODL Cave, analyze ETF flows and realized cap trends, and introduce quarterly cycles in the TBL Liquidity Index that may offer timing signals. The discussion also touches on dealer behavior in money markets, financial conditions, and the relationship between macro volatility, inflation expectations, and Bitcoin’s path forward.
📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
🔓 The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial services. Unchained empowers you to take full control of your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys, and benefit from a Bitcoin security partner. Purchase Bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk. Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys. Don’t pay more taxes than you have to. Talk to us today.
Visit thebitcoinlayer.com/unchained and use code TBL for $100 off when you create an account.
🕊️ The Human Rights Foundation promotes freedom through Bitcoin by supporting developers, educating activists, and defending civil liberties worldwide.
Join thousands of readers who care about human rights, sound money, and financial sovereignty — subscribe for free at financialfreedomreport.org.
📡 Blockstream delivers cutting-edge Bitcoin infrastructure. Discover the top-rated Blockstream Jade hardware wallet for secure offline storage, and explore the Blockstream Satellite for a seamless offline Bitcoin node experience — all available at the Blockstream Store. Visit: store.blockstream.com/discount/TBL for 10% off entire order.
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe
🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.
📱 Follow TBL on X: twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer
📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial
🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch
⛓️ ₿lock Height 902556
⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg
Nik Bhatia's Twitter: twitter.com/timevalueofbtc
Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: twitter.com/matthewrball
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB
❗ The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Chapters:
00:00:00 Introduction to the Bitcoin Layer Chart Pack
00:06:07 Bitcoin's Performance in Market: A Comparison
00:17:07 Understanding Bitcoin's Performance Strategy
00:23:05 Understanding Financial Market Volatility
00:29:06 Understanding Market Maker Dynamics
00:34:59 Understanding Cash Settlements in Bond Trading
00:40:49 Understanding Reverse Repo and Treasury Bills
00:46:55 Understanding Yield Components and Charting Strategy
00:52:27 Insights in Bitcoin Quantitative Analysis
In this episode, Nik is joined by TBL's lead statistician Augustine Carrasco for a walkthrough of the latest TBL chart pack, covering the key macro and on-chain dynamics shaping Bitcoin’s current structure. They explore long-term holding returns through the lens of Unchained’s HODL Cave, analyze ETF flows and realized cap trends, and introduce quarterly cycles in the TBL Liquidity Index that may offer timing signals. The discussion also touches on dealer behavior in money markets, financial conditions, and the relationship between macro volatility, inflation expectations, and Bitcoin’s path forward.
📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
🔓 The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial services. Unchained empowers you to take full control of your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys, and benefit from a Bitcoin security partner. Purchase Bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk. Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys. Don’t pay more taxes than you have to. Talk to us today.
Visit thebitcoinlayer.com/unchained and use code TBL for $100 off when you create an account.
🕊️ The Human Rights Foundation promotes freedom through Bitcoin by supporting developers, educating activists, and defending civil liberties worldwide.
Join thousands of readers who care about human rights, sound money, and financial sovereignty — subscribe for free at financialfreedomreport.org.
📡 Blockstream delivers cutting-edge Bitcoin infrastructure. Discover the top-rated Blockstream Jade hardware wallet for secure offline storage, and explore the Blockstream Satellite for a seamless offline Bitcoin node experience — all available at the Blockstream Store. Visit: store.blockstream.com/discount/TBL for 10% off entire order.
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe
🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.
📱 Follow TBL on X: twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer
📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial
🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch
⛓️ ₿lock Height 902556
⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg
Nik Bhatia's Twitter: twitter.com/timevalueofbtc
Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: twitter.com/matthewrball
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB
❗ The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Chapters:
00:00:00 Introduction to the Bitcoin Layer Chart Pack
00:06:07 Bitcoin's Performance in Market: A Comparison
00:17:07 Understanding Bitcoin's Performance Strategy
00:23:05 Understanding Financial Market Volatility
00:29:06 Understanding Market Maker Dynamics
00:34:59 Understanding Cash Settlements in Bond Trading
00:40:49 Understanding Reverse Repo and Treasury Bills
00:46:55 Understanding Yield Components and Charting Strategy
00:52:27 Insights in Bitcoin Quantitative Analysis
