Uploaded July 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
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In this episode, Nik welcomes back Matt Dines to lay out his thesis that the global order built after World War Two is being reset. Matt walks through the signals he is watching: the Kuwaiti pipeline deal with Blackstone, KKR, and Brookfield that reroutes energy toward Europe, the US-China rare earths truce and its expiring clock, and the chokepoints from Hormuz to the Red Sea. He connects rising real yields, a flattening curve, and dollar strength to that same reconfiguration, then turns to the Paramount and Warner Brothers fight over Oracle bonds and why he believes the November elections will resolve much of it.
Get Nik's weekly bitcoin and macro research: thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe
The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by SOUND HSA. A Health Savings Account is the most tax-advantaged account in the US tax code: contributions are tax-deductible, growth is tax-free, and withdrawals for qualified healthcare expenses are tax-free too. But most people leave their HSA sitting in cash, losing purchasing power year after year. SOUND HSA lets you hold real bitcoin inside your HSA instead. Not an ETF, not a paper claim, but real bitcoin secured in multi-institutional, multi-signature cold storage. Use code TBL to waive the fifty-dollar setup fee. Transfer an existing HSA or open a new one today: soundhsa.com
The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Club Orange. One of the best parts of bitcoin is the people, and some of the strongest friendships and opportunities come from meeting other bitcoiners. Club Orange makes that easy. Whether you're at home or traveling for a conference, you can find local bitcoiners, discover the next meetup, and locate merchants that accept bitcoin, all in one app. Every city has an incredible bitcoin community; you just need a way to find it. Learn more at cluborange.org/thebitcoinlayer, or download Club Orange on the App Store or Google Play. When you join, send Nik a DM.
Timestamps:
00:00 Rising Treasury yields and Nik's macro setup
04:48 Why bitcoin is a sideshow for the next few months
06:00 The Kuwait pipeline deal as the signal in the noise
09:36 The US-China rare earths truce and its expiring clock
12:00 The election interference speech and who got fingered
14:24 Rerouting energy overland to Europe, around the chokepoints
18:00 Tighter money markets and the exogenous bond selloff
21:20 Kuwait, Hormuz, and why the old sea routes are blocked
45:00 Verticalizing media: Paramount, Warner Brothers, and Oracle
1:04:10 Why November decides the Paramount-Warner fight
1:06:41 How the election could turn credit markets on a dime
1:09:25 The largest dollar debt workout in history is coming
1:09:56 Where to find Matt
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
🎙 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.
🐦 Follow TBL on X: /thebitcoinlayer
Nik Bhatia's Twitter: /timevalueofbtc
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB
🚨 CHECK OUT TBL PULSE: research.thebitcoinlayer.com
In this episode, Nik welcomes back Matt Dines to lay out his thesis that the global order built after World War Two is being reset. Matt walks through the signals he is watching: the Kuwaiti pipeline deal with Blackstone, KKR, and Brookfield that reroutes energy toward Europe, the US-China rare earths truce and its expiring clock, and the chokepoints from Hormuz to the Red Sea. He connects rising real yields, a flattening curve, and dollar strength to that same reconfiguration, then turns to the Paramount and Warner Brothers fight over Oracle bonds and why he believes the November elections will resolve much of it.
Get Nik's weekly bitcoin and macro research: thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe
The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by SOUND HSA. A Health Savings Account is the most tax-advantaged account in the US tax code: contributions are tax-deductible, growth is tax-free, and withdrawals for qualified healthcare expenses are tax-free too. But most people leave their HSA sitting in cash, losing purchasing power year after year. SOUND HSA lets you hold real bitcoin inside your HSA instead. Not an ETF, not a paper claim, but real bitcoin secured in multi-institutional, multi-signature cold storage. Use code TBL to waive the fifty-dollar setup fee. Transfer an existing HSA or open a new one today: soundhsa.com
The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Club Orange. One of the best parts of bitcoin is the people, and some of the strongest friendships and opportunities come from meeting other bitcoiners. Club Orange makes that easy. Whether you're at home or traveling for a conference, you can find local bitcoiners, discover the next meetup, and locate merchants that accept bitcoin, all in one app. Every city has an incredible bitcoin community; you just need a way to find it. Learn more at cluborange.org/thebitcoinlayer, or download Club Orange on the App Store or Google Play. When you join, send Nik a DM.
Timestamps:
00:00 Rising Treasury yields and Nik's macro setup
04:48 Why bitcoin is a sideshow for the next few months
06:00 The Kuwait pipeline deal as the signal in the noise
09:36 The US-China rare earths truce and its expiring clock
12:00 The election interference speech and who got fingered
14:24 Rerouting energy overland to Europe, around the chokepoints
18:00 Tighter money markets and the exogenous bond selloff
21:20 Kuwait, Hormuz, and why the old sea routes are blocked
45:00 Verticalizing media: Paramount, Warner Brothers, and Oracle
1:04:10 Why November decides the Paramount-Warner fight
1:06:41 How the election could turn credit markets on a dime
1:09:25 The largest dollar debt workout in history is coming
1:09:56 Where to find Matt
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
🎙 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.
🐦 Follow TBL on X: /thebitcoinlayer
Nik Bhatia's Twitter: /timevalueofbtc
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB
