Uploaded December 2025 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
In this episode, Nik breaks down why Bitcoin remains resilient despite year-to-date weakness by applying the TBL Liquidity framework. He walks through inflation expectations, energy prices, Treasury yields, and housing costs to explain how policy choices around oil production, affordability, and fiscal math shape liquidity conditions. Nik shows why lower inflation is the key driver for lower yields, how energy prices feed directly into CPI, and what calmer bond markets could mean for Bitcoin heading into 2026.
Episode links:
- tcw.com/-/media/Downloads/com/Insights/2025/251006-IPO-or-IOU.PDF?rev=9a6fd213f53d4bbc87c5767890483fcb&sc_lang=en
- theepochtimes.com/us/speaker-johnson-has-a-health-care-plan-heres-whats-in-it-5958410
- finance.yahoo.com/news/sovereign-wealth-funds-were-buyers-173202044.html
- Polymarket: https://poly.market/YCSQFCv
📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
🔓 The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial services. Unchained empowers you to take full control of your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys, and benefit from a Bitcoin security partner. Purchase Bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk. Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys. Don’t pay more taxes than you have to. Talk to us today.
Visit unchained.com/tbl and use the code TBL10 for a 10% credit towards your first year's account fees.
📡 Blockstream delivers cutting-edge Bitcoin infrastructure. Discover the top-rated Blockstream Jade hardware wallet for secure offline storage, and explore the Blockstream Satellite for a seamless offline Bitcoin node experience — all available at the Blockstream Store.
- Visit: store.blockstream.com/discount/TBL for 10% off entire order.
- blog.blockstream.com/jade-security-disclosure
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe
🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.
📱 Follow TBL on X: twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer
📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial
🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch
⛓️ ₿lock Height 928343
⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg
Nik Bhatia's Twitter: twitter.com/timevalueofbtc
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB
❗ The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Chapters:
00:00 Intro: Mastering Bitcoin FUD & Frameworks
00:19 Frameworks and Macro Drivers for Bitcoin
01:20 TBL Liquidity Model & Market Influences
02:52 Major Narratives: Bitcoin and Macro
04:04 December News & Institutional Bitcoin Moves
06:11 Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac IPO: Background
09:04 Capital Shortfalls and IPO Challenges
13:16 Mortgage Guarantees & System Impacts
17:05 How the Mortgage System Functions
20:33 The TBA Market & Mortgage Standardization
24:01 US Administration, Affordability & Policy
28:16 Energy: Oil Prices, Inflation & Policy Moves
36:44 US Oil Production, Exports, and Market Effects
41:54 Fixed Income, Treasury Yields, and Policy Needs
45:34 Rent, CPI & Path for Lower Inflation
47:00 The Administration's Strategy: Rolling Debt
49:32 Healthcare Costs, Legislation & Affordability
51:28 US Trade Deficit: Policy and Global Dynamics
54:33 Trade, Ownership, and Security Implications
55:36 Bitcoin, Macroeconomics, and Looking Ahead
In this episode, Nik breaks down why Bitcoin remains resilient despite year-to-date weakness by applying the TBL Liquidity framework. He walks through inflation expectations, energy prices, Treasury yields, and housing costs to explain how policy choices around oil production, affordability, and fiscal math shape liquidity conditions. Nik shows why lower inflation is the key driver for lower yields, how energy prices feed directly into CPI, and what calmer bond markets could mean for Bitcoin heading into 2026.
Episode links:
- tcw.com/-/media/Downloads/com/Insights/2025/251006-IPO-or-IOU.PDF?rev=9a6fd213f53d4bbc87c5767890483fcb&sc_lang=en
- theepochtimes.com/us/speaker-johnson-has-a-health-care-plan-heres-whats-in-it-5958410
- finance.yahoo.com/news/sovereign-wealth-funds-were-buyers-173202044.html
- Polymarket: https://poly.market/YCSQFCv
📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
🔓 The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial services. Unchained empowers you to take full control of your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys, and benefit from a Bitcoin security partner. Purchase Bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk. Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys. Don’t pay more taxes than you have to. Talk to us today.
Visit unchained.com/tbl and use the code TBL10 for a 10% credit towards your first year's account fees.
📡 Blockstream delivers cutting-edge Bitcoin infrastructure. Discover the top-rated Blockstream Jade hardware wallet for secure offline storage, and explore the Blockstream Satellite for a seamless offline Bitcoin node experience — all available at the Blockstream Store.
- Visit: store.blockstream.com/discount/TBL for 10% off entire order.
- blog.blockstream.com/jade-security-disclosure
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe
🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.
📱 Follow TBL on X: twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer
📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial
🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch
⛓️ ₿lock Height 928343
⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg
Nik Bhatia's Twitter: twitter.com/timevalueofbtc
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB
❗ The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Chapters:
00:00 Intro: Mastering Bitcoin FUD & Frameworks
00:19 Frameworks and Macro Drivers for Bitcoin
01:20 TBL Liquidity Model & Market Influences
02:52 Major Narratives: Bitcoin and Macro
04:04 December News & Institutional Bitcoin Moves
06:11 Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac IPO: Background
09:04 Capital Shortfalls and IPO Challenges
13:16 Mortgage Guarantees & System Impacts
17:05 How the Mortgage System Functions
20:33 The TBA Market & Mortgage Standardization
24:01 US Administration, Affordability & Policy
28:16 Energy: Oil Prices, Inflation & Policy Moves
36:44 US Oil Production, Exports, and Market Effects
41:54 Fixed Income, Treasury Yields, and Policy Needs
45:34 Rent, CPI & Path for Lower Inflation
47:00 The Administration's Strategy: Rolling Debt
49:32 Healthcare Costs, Legislation & Affordability
51:28 US Trade Deficit: Policy and Global Dynamics
54:33 Trade, Ownership, and Security Implications
55:36 Bitcoin, Macroeconomics, and Looking Ahead
