Are We Headed Toward Stagflation? @TheJuliaLaRocheShow

The Julia La Roche Show | Are We Headed Toward Stagflation? @TheJuliaLaRocheShow | Uploaded September 2023 | Updated October 2024, 9 hours ago.
Larry McDonald (@convertbond), author of the New York Times bestseller “A Colossal Failure of Common Sense: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers,” and founder of The Bear Traps Report, a weekly independent macro research platform focusing on global political and systemic risk with actionable trade ideas, joins Julia La Roche on episode 101.

Links:
thebeartrapsreport.com
twitter.com/Convertbond

0:00 Welcome Larry to the show
1:00 Macro picture
2:15 The probability of sustained stagflation near-term is rising
3:12 What people are getting wrong about inflation
5:32 Stagflation
9:20 One-year breakevens
10:25 Nvidia, and playing AI
14:20 Idiotic dislocations in the market
18:40 Indexing creating a bubble
23:15 Regional bank risks
27:25 Buy into capitulation selling
29:17 Economic picture today
34:00 Short high yield, long MBS trade
37:20 Companies sitting on cash are seeing stocks hold up (for now)
39:34 Zombies
42:00 What will drive 2-3 trillion out of growth and into value
47:00 Shift into stagflation
50:30 Exciting trade of our lives

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$What The Huge Downward Revision In The Jobs Data Means For The Economy | Dr. Lacy Hunt Legendary economist Dr. Lacy Hunt joins Julia La Roche on episode 192 for a wide-ranging discussion on the deteriorating economy. ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨ In this episode, Dr. Hunt explains that non-farm payrolls overshot by five standard errors, making it the worst miss since a 9 standard one for 2009, during the GFC recession, and marking another bureaucratic failure. According to Dr. Hunt, the reported overshoot of 818,000 was based on an internal seasonally adjusted series, but based on the nonseasonal adjusted data, the overshoot was actually 915,000. Dr. Hunt explains that the non-farm job miss means that productivity will be revised up while unit labor costs will be revised down. Personal income and Gross Domestic Income will be revised downward, and the personal saving rate will be reduced from its already very depressed level of 3.5%. Dr. Hunt is an internationally known and award-winning economist. He received the Abramson Award from the National Association for Business Economics for outstanding contributions in the field of business economics. Dr. Hunt is Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company (HIMCO). This is the 55th year in Dr. Hunts career. He served as a Senior Economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. When he entered the Fed, William Martin was chair and was grappling with severe inflation and when Dr. Hunt left the Fed, Arthur Burns was chair and also trying to contain rampant price increases. Dr. Hunt served 23 years on the Board of Trustees at Temple University where he received his PhD in 1969, and is an honorary life trustee as well. ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account. ✨ Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨ Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome Dr. Lacy Hunt 1:16 Macro picture 3:37 Downward revision in non-farm payrolls is significant 5:45 The 818,000 error is actually 915,000, according to Dr. Hunts model 9:00 The economy is deteriorating 15:24 Net national saving shows we have a problem 21:40 The seriousness of negative net national savings 25:00 Decline in the standard of living 34:50 Possible solutions, shared sacrifice 40:00 Fiscal dominance is a very real possibility 45:40 Fed is behind the curve 47:37 Where are we in the economic lifecycle 49:44 The global economy$