@TheJuliaLaRocheShow

@TheJuliaLaRocheShow

The Julia La Roche Show | Jason Trennert: If You're Playing The Odds Expect A Recession In The Next 6-12 Months @TheJuliaLaRocheShow | Uploaded July 2023 | Updated October 2024, 11 hours ago.
Jason Trennert, co-founder and CEO of Strategas Research Partners, joins Julia La Roche for a wide-ranging conversation on the macro picture.
Strategas has been voted the top independent macro research provider by Institutional Investor for six consecutive years. Trennert discusses the major macro themes that will shape the investment climate for the foreseeable future.

0:00 Intro
1:06 Quite cautious on the markets/economy
2:40 Chances are good that you’re going to get a recession
4:33 The magnificent seven
6:06 40% of the Russell 2000 has not had profits in the last 12 months
7:10 Inflation
9:00 Long way away from the Fed easing
10:25 Not buying stocks at reasonable prices right now
12:30 Opportunities, energy sector
15:30 Thoughts on AI
17:50 Themes
18:40 The end of globalization
22:11 Labor market
24:17 Hard or soft landing
26:00 Regional banks
27:48 Energy sector
32:50 Lobbying ETF (policy opportunities)
37:24 TINA
40:30 Fair value of S&P is probably between 3500-4100
42:00 Career in financial markets

#recession #stockmarket #investing

Jason Trennert: If Youre Playing The Odds Expect A Recession In The Next 6-12 Months

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$What The Huge Downward Revision In The Jobs Data Means For The Economy | Dr. Lacy Hunt Legendary economist Dr. Lacy Hunt joins Julia La Roche on episode 192 for a wide-ranging discussion on the deteriorating economy. ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨ In this episode, Dr. Hunt explains that non-farm payrolls overshot by five standard errors, making it the worst miss since a 9 standard one for 2009, during the GFC recession, and marking another bureaucratic failure. According to Dr. Hunt, the reported overshoot of 818,000 was based on an internal seasonally adjusted series, but based on the nonseasonal adjusted data, the overshoot was actually 915,000. Dr. Hunt explains that the non-farm job miss means that productivity will be revised up while unit labor costs will be revised down. Personal income and Gross Domestic Income will be revised downward, and the personal saving rate will be reduced from its already very depressed level of 3.5%. Dr. Hunt is an internationally known and award-winning economist. He received the Abramson Award from the National Association for Business Economics for outstanding contributions in the field of business economics. Dr. Hunt is Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company (HIMCO). This is the 55th year in Dr. Hunts career. He served as a Senior Economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. When he entered the Fed, William Martin was chair and was grappling with severe inflation and when Dr. Hunt left the Fed, Arthur Burns was chair and also trying to contain rampant price increases. Dr. Hunt served 23 years on the Board of Trustees at Temple University where he received his PhD in 1969, and is an honorary life trustee as well. ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account. ✨ Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨ Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome Dr. Lacy Hunt 1:16 Macro picture 3:37 Downward revision in non-farm payrolls is significant 5:45 The 818,000 error is actually 915,000, according to Dr. Hunts model 9:00 The economy is deteriorating 15:24 Net national saving shows we have a problem 21:40 The seriousness of negative net national savings 25:00 Decline in the standard of living 34:50 Possible solutions, shared sacrifice 40:00 Fiscal dominance is a very real possibility 45:40 Fed is behind the curve 47:37 Where are we in the economic lifecycle 49:44 The global economy$

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$David Rosenberg On The Current Economic Illusion And The Stock Market Bubble In episode 203, David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, joined Julia to discuss the current economic landscape and his outlook for the future. ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account. In this episode, Rosenberg challenged the prevailing optimism about the U.S. economy, arguing that the apparent strength in GDP numbers is largely due to unsustainable government spending. He highlighted discrepancies between official data and other economic indicators, suggesting that the economy may be weaker than it appears. Rosenberg expressed concern about the stock markets high valuations, drawing parallels to previous market bubbles. He warned of potential risks, including a possible recession in 2025, and discussed the dangers of excessive exposure to equities, particularly among older investors. Rosenberg advocated for a more defensive investment strategy, recommending an increased allocation to bonds and gold, while maintaining a cautious approach to equities. Throughout the conversation, he emphasized the importance of understanding historical patterns and the risks of new era thinking in financial markets. Links: https://rosenbergresearch.com/ https://x.com/EconguyRosie Timestamps: 00:23 Introduction and overview of current economic situation 01:03 Discussion on GDP growth and survey data divergence 02:57 Analysis of the Feds Beige Book and economic indicators 05:19 Impact of government spending on GDP numbers 08:18 Discussion on fiscal policy and upcoming election 10:49 Analysis of government employment data and labor market 13:31 Long-term effects of fiscal policy 15:15 Lack of capital spending cycle and global economic slowdown 17:37 Diffusion analysis of the US economy 19:54 Potential fiscal policy changes after the election 21:10 Discussion on potential recession and historical comparisons 25:15 Analysis of interest rates and debt service costs 27:43 Lags in economic policy effects 31:35 Job report revisions and data reliability issues 35:43 Stock market valuation and earnings growth 39:21 Risks in current stock market valuations 42:26 Discussion on portfolio rebalancing and asset allocation 46:40 Concerns about passive index investing 50:01 Potential impact of stock market decline on the economy 54:15 Investment strategy and portfolio allocation 57:22 Approach to investing in bonds 01:00:45 Total return expectations for bonds 01:02:27 Parting thoughts$

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Jason Trennert: If You're Playing The Odds Expect A Recession In The Next 6-12 Months @TheJuliaLaRocheShow