Recession Is The New Bull Story On Wall Street | Jim Bianco @TheJuliaLaRocheShow

The Julia La Roche Show | Recession Is The New Bull Story On Wall Street | Jim Bianco @TheJuliaLaRocheShow | Uploaded December 2022 | Updated October 2024, 11 hours ago.
Macro researcher Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch), founder and president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 41.

In this episode, Bianco makes the case that we've entered a different market era from 2009 to 2021 and why he doesn't expect the Fed to cut rates or pivot anytime soon. He also breakdowns this paradox where for the first time, most Wall Street strategists expect a decline in the stock market in 2023, which wasn't the case during the Great Recession or after 9/11. He explains that a recession has become their bull story where the Fed will cut rates and the market will rise.

Bianco also outlines how we've entered a post-pandemic economy marking the end of an era of cheap goods, labor, and energy. As such, he makes a case for why inflation won't return to 2%.

Bianco notes that the market going forward will turn into a stock picker's market versus buying indexes and ETFs and relying on the Fed put. He also outlines opportunities in fixed income, what he's watching for in equities, and his thoughts on gold. Finally, Bianco weighs in on the FTX fiasco and explains why he's still a big fan of cryptocurrencies and what's needed for the space.

0:00 Macro view
0:31 2023 starting off with a divergence
1:10 A different era of persistent inflation
2:14 Market is a liquidity junkie
3:36 Paradox of wanting a recession
5:01 A recession is the bull story
5:35 Bianco’s view on a recession
7:05 What the Fed is hoping for
10:35 Inflation
12:41 Why we won’t get back to 2%
13:11 Watch what the MTA is doing with subway service
14:40 Giant shift in workforce attitude
15:42 China is a disaster right now
18:02 Era of cheap goods, labor, and energy is over
20:30 The path 2% requires killing the economy
23:00 Energy
27:48 What folks are missing on the China reopening story
33:10 Bank of Japan expands trading band for 10-year Japanese government bonds
35:58 Japan has an inflation problem
37:00 There’s a developed world inflation problem
38:22 More implications from the BOJ’s surprise move
40:29 It’s now a stock picker’s market
42:26 George Noble
43:33 Fixed income is becoming interesting
45:35 Equities
47:00 More on fixed income
50:45 Thoughts on gold
52:20 GLD
58:09 Thoughts on crypto in the wake of FTX/SBF
1:01:01 Crypto turned into a casino
1:02:48 Banking system is inherently unstable
1:05:37 Impacts of FTX on the crypto industry
1:11:40 Book recommendation

#investing #inflation #macro

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$What The Huge Downward Revision In The Jobs Data Means For The Economy | Dr. Lacy Hunt Legendary economist Dr. Lacy Hunt joins Julia La Roche on episode 192 for a wide-ranging discussion on the deteriorating economy. ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨ In this episode, Dr. Hunt explains that non-farm payrolls overshot by five standard errors, making it the worst miss since a 9 standard one for 2009, during the GFC recession, and marking another bureaucratic failure. According to Dr. Hunt, the reported overshoot of 818,000 was based on an internal seasonally adjusted series, but based on the nonseasonal adjusted data, the overshoot was actually 915,000. Dr. Hunt explains that the non-farm job miss means that productivity will be revised up while unit labor costs will be revised down. Personal income and Gross Domestic Income will be revised downward, and the personal saving rate will be reduced from its already very depressed level of 3.5%. Dr. Hunt is an internationally known and award-winning economist. He received the Abramson Award from the National Association for Business Economics for outstanding contributions in the field of business economics. Dr. Hunt is Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company (HIMCO). This is the 55th year in Dr. Hunts career. He served as a Senior Economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. When he entered the Fed, William Martin was chair and was grappling with severe inflation and when Dr. Hunt left the Fed, Arthur Burns was chair and also trying to contain rampant price increases. Dr. Hunt served 23 years on the Board of Trustees at Temple University where he received his PhD in 1969, and is an honorary life trustee as well. ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account. ✨ Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨ Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome Dr. Lacy Hunt 1:16 Macro picture 3:37 Downward revision in non-farm payrolls is significant 5:45 The 818,000 error is actually 915,000, according to Dr. Hunts model 9:00 The economy is deteriorating 15:24 Net national saving shows we have a problem 21:40 The seriousness of negative net national savings 25:00 Decline in the standard of living 34:50 Possible solutions, shared sacrifice 40:00 Fiscal dominance is a very real possibility 45:40 Fed is behind the curve 47:37 Where are we in the economic lifecycle 49:44 The global economy$

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