Uploaded August 2025 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex Collapse Greatly Increased Monsoonal Rainfall in South China
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A new peer-reviewed paper shows how changes in the upper atmosphere over the Arctic can propagate to lower latitudes and lower altitudes and greatly amplify torrential rains in other parts of the world the next month.
We really do live in a highly connected world.
Links:
New Peer=reviewed paper:
Arctic stratospheric polar vortex collapse amplified South China extreme rainfall in April 2024
Abstract
In March 2024, the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex (ASPV) collapsed dramatically. The following April, extreme precipitation in South China (SCP) caused severe floods and economic damage. Whether and how they are connected is crucial yet unclear. Through observations and model simulations, we demonstrate that the ASPV collapse in March amplified extreme SCP in April 2024. As stratospheric anomalies persistently propagated downward, March ASPV had a pronounced impact on the North Atlantic tropospheric circulation in April, exciting eastward-propagating Rossby waves. The resulting lower-tropospheric cyclonic anomaly over South China enhanced vertical motion and moisture transport, with vertical ascent dominating the extreme precipitation. The ASPV’s influence on SCP ranked just behind that of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and together they improved SCP predictability to 52%. A weakened March ASPV increased extreme April SCP occurrence by 45%. This finding reveals a robust polar−low-latitude teleconnection, highlighting the Arctic stratospheric signal as a crucial predictor in SCP and even low-latitude climate, further aiding in impact mitigation.
Link:
nature.com/articles/s41612-025-01107-8?fbclid=IwY2xjawMQiRNleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHuMxj_oZj6g0As5VrpcjS_E_c7XwmpI7R-AZBjTsnOldK0lZZhaNfpgr7Apd_aem_0p5i29W2o4xvnPQAdD3Ing
Observed and Forecasted Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex winds:
climate.gov/media/15989
China water resources article:
Beijiang River experiences the first flood of 2024. Water conservancy departments are making every effort to prepare for various disasters.
https://www.chinawater.com.cn/yw/202404/t20240407_1040462.html
China water resources article:
Beijiang River Flood No. 2 of 2024 occurred, and the water conservancy department responded scientifically and orderly
https://www.chinawater.com.cn/yw/202404/t20240420_1041098.html
Office of the National Disaster Prevention, Reduction and Relief Committee Ministry of Emergency Management
Release of the national natural disaster situation in April 2024
https://www.mem.gov.cn/xw/yjglbgzdt/202405/t20240517_488741.shtml
Perplexity.ai searches:
Please discuss the Stratospheric Polar Vortex, and how climate change affects it?
What role does ozone depletion play in altering the polar vortex dynamics?
What are the potential climate implications of a weakened polar vortex in upcoming winters?
What are the latest 2025 peer-reviewed scientific papers on the Stratospheric Polar Vortex?
perplexity.ai/search/please-discuss-the-stratospher-yYx7kJGPRdmaTnjF5qi4_A
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex Collapse Greatly Increased Monsoonal Rainfall in South China
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
A new peer-reviewed paper shows how changes in the upper atmosphere over the Arctic can propagate to lower latitudes and lower altitudes and greatly amplify torrential rains in other parts of the world the next month.
We really do live in a highly connected world.
Links:
New Peer=reviewed paper:
Arctic stratospheric polar vortex collapse amplified South China extreme rainfall in April 2024
Abstract
In March 2024, the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex (ASPV) collapsed dramatically. The following April, extreme precipitation in South China (SCP) caused severe floods and economic damage. Whether and how they are connected is crucial yet unclear. Through observations and model simulations, we demonstrate that the ASPV collapse in March amplified extreme SCP in April 2024. As stratospheric anomalies persistently propagated downward, March ASPV had a pronounced impact on the North Atlantic tropospheric circulation in April, exciting eastward-propagating Rossby waves. The resulting lower-tropospheric cyclonic anomaly over South China enhanced vertical motion and moisture transport, with vertical ascent dominating the extreme precipitation. The ASPV’s influence on SCP ranked just behind that of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and together they improved SCP predictability to 52%. A weakened March ASPV increased extreme April SCP occurrence by 45%. This finding reveals a robust polar−low-latitude teleconnection, highlighting the Arctic stratospheric signal as a crucial predictor in SCP and even low-latitude climate, further aiding in impact mitigation.
Link:
nature.com/articles/s41612-025-01107-8?fbclid=IwY2xjawMQiRNleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHuMxj_oZj6g0As5VrpcjS_E_c7XwmpI7R-AZBjTsnOldK0lZZhaNfpgr7Apd_aem_0p5i29W2o4xvnPQAdD3Ing
Observed and Forecasted Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex winds:
climate.gov/media/15989
China water resources article:
Beijiang River experiences the first flood of 2024. Water conservancy departments are making every effort to prepare for various disasters.
https://www.chinawater.com.cn/yw/202404/t20240407_1040462.html
China water resources article:
Beijiang River Flood No. 2 of 2024 occurred, and the water conservancy department responded scientifically and orderly
https://www.chinawater.com.cn/yw/202404/t20240420_1041098.html
Office of the National Disaster Prevention, Reduction and Relief Committee Ministry of Emergency Management
Release of the national natural disaster situation in April 2024
https://www.mem.gov.cn/xw/yjglbgzdt/202405/t20240517_488741.shtml
Perplexity.ai searches:
Please discuss the Stratospheric Polar Vortex, and how climate change affects it?
What role does ozone depletion play in altering the polar vortex dynamics?
What are the potential climate implications of a weakened polar vortex in upcoming winters?
What are the latest 2025 peer-reviewed scientific papers on the Stratospheric Polar Vortex?
perplexity.ai/search/please-discuss-the-stratospher-yYx7kJGPRdmaTnjF5qi4_A
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
