Why Great Powers Intervene in Revolutionary Civil Wars: Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, and Ukraine @weareceu
Why Great Powers Intervene in Revolutionary Civil Wars: Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, and Ukraine  @weareceu
Uploaded March 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
This is a recording of a public event organized by the CEU Department of International Relations at CEU Vienna, February 25, 2026.

For three decades, Western foreign policy has oscillated between liberal idealism and realist retrenchment. Today, as Washington and Beijing drift toward strategic confrontation, many assume the age of Western liberal interventions — US and NATO engagements in the Balkans, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya — has ended. Yet a closer look at patterns of great power behavior suggests something more enduring. For all the talk of a new, chaotic world order, the logics of great power intervention have barely changed.

Drawing on forty years of intervention data and four historical cases, the authors of the “Clients. Rivals, and Rogues: Why Great Powers Intervene in Revolutionary Civil Wars” book show that when the United States, Soviet Union, Russia, France, UK or China intervened abroad, they did so not to spread ideology or enforce norms but to defend clients and preserve hierarchies of influence. Moreover, they do so using a highly predictable set of discursive frames.

During this event, Erin K. Jenne, Professor and Head of the International Relations Department at CEU, presents the main ideas of the “Clients, Rivals, and Rogues: Why Great Powers Intervene in Revolutionary Civil Wars” book, which she co-authored with Milos Popovic and David S. Siroky. Erin K. Jenne specializes in ethnic conflict, minority politics, nationalism, populism, foreign policy analysis, and qualitative and mixed methods.

She is joined by
* Markus Kornprobst - Professor and the Chair in International Relations at the Diplomatische Akademie Wien - Vienna School of International Studies
* Anatoly Reshetnikov - Assistant Professor of International Relations at Webster Vienna Private University

View more from the Department of International Relations at CEU:
https://www.ceu.edu/departments/international-relations

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Timestamps
00:00 Introduction
05:56 – The Research Questions: Why great powers intervene and how they choose between government or opposition
07:44 – The Impact: Data showing how great power involvement doubles battle deaths and lengthens wars
09:41 – Defining Great Powers: Why the P5 (US, Russia, China, UK, France) are the focus of the study
13:28 – Debunking Myths: Explanation of why ideology, oil, and human rights abuses are not significant predictors
14:48 – Security Hierarchies: The central finding that arms transfers are the primary indicator of intervention
16:52 – Role Theory: Applying sociological "front stage/backstage" concepts to international diplomacy
22:12 – The Data: A 40-year comparison of intervention frequency (US vs. other powers)

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Why Great Powers Intervene in Revolutionary Civil Wars: Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, and Ukraine

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