Uploaded July 2025 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago

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Full conversation: nonzero.org/p/why-china-wont-invade-taiwan-nonzero

0:00 Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is so unlikely
3:36 Taiwan’s terrain: A defender’s dream, an invader’s nightmare
10:30 Why Taipei might be the hardest city in the world to conquer
12:20 Dan: China would need nearly 5 million soldiers to have a chance
13:53 The 2027 invasion theory—and why it doesn’t hold up
16:12 Is China trying to bankrupt the US military?
18:58 A cheaper, smarter way to defend Taiwan
22:17 Submarines: A deterrent with a message
27:22 Comparing a Taiwan invasion to D-Day
31:02 China's long game
35:07 Why a blockade might be worse than an invasion

Discussed in Overtime:
The $1 trillion question: Why Washington needs a threat.
How to build a better military.
Dan breaks down a $100 billion boondoggle.

Recorded July 18, 2025.

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