Uploaded May 2026 | Updated September 2026, 3 weeks ago
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🌪️ SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK – Monday, May 18, 2026 (11:25AM CDT Update)
SPC Risk Level: MODERATE (Level 4 of 5)
Valid through May 18, 2026 7:00 PM CDT Monday
📍 Major Cities in Risk Zones
🔴 MODERATE Risk: Topeka, KS, Lincoln, NE, St. Joseph, MO, Council Bluffs, IA
🟡 SLIGHT Risk: Wichita, KS, Kansas City, MO, Des Moines, IA, Omaha, NE
🟢 MARGINAL Risk: Oklahoma City, OK, Tulsa, OK, Fort Wayne, IN, Grand Rapids, MI
🌪️ Tornado Risk Zones
🔴 30% Tornado Risk (discrete supercells with strong to intense tornado potential): Topeka, KS, Lincoln, NE, St. Joseph, MO, Council Bluffs, IA
🟡 10% Tornado Risk (scattered tornadoes possible with supercells): Wichita, KS, Kansas City, MO, Des Moines, IA, Omaha, NE
What the Percentages Mean
A 30% tornado risk means there is a 1 in 3 chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. This area is most concerning for intense supercells capable of producing multiple strong to intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and damaging winds.
📝 Overview
A potent shortwave trough is moving across the central Rockies into western Kansas, supporting a strong surface boundary extending from western Iowa into central Kansas. An outflow boundary from overnight convection is lifting northward, allowing a very moist and extremely unstable air mass to spread into eastern Kansas, northwest Missouri, extreme southeast Nebraska, and southwest Iowa. This region is the primary focus for intense supercells later today.
Storm initiation is expected by early afternoon near the triple point of the retreating outflow boundary and cold front. These storms will track northeastward through the afternoon and early evening in a strongly sheared environment favorable for tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. While storm interactions may impact discrete supercell mode, strong tornadoes remain a significant concern.
Farther southwest, storms developing near the cold front across south-central Kansas may be more linear and slightly anafrontal, reducing tornado risk but maintaining threats for very large hail and damaging winds. In western Oklahoma and northwest Texas, isolated storms are expected along the dryline with risks of large hail and damaging winds, though weak forcing may limit intensity and duration.
⛈️ Hazards Include
🧊 Very large to giant hail (possible with supercells)
🌪️ Multiple strong to intense tornadoes (most likely in eastern KS, southeast NE, northwest MO, southwest IA)
💨 Damaging wind gusts (including within linear storm modes)
🕓 Timeline
12 PM–3 PM CDT: Storm initiation near triple point and cold front in central KS and western IA
3 PM–7 PM CDT: Peak severe threat with supercells tracking northeastward across eastern KS, southeast NE, northwest MO, and southwest IA
7 PM–12 AM CDT: Storms diminish and transition eastward into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region
📌 Regional Notes
🔴 Eastern Kansas/Southeast Nebraska → Intense supercells with strong tornado and giant hail potential
🟡 South-central Kansas → Large hail and damaging winds expected with somewhat reduced tornado threat
🟢 Western Oklahoma/Northwest Texas → Isolated storms with hail and wind threats, limited intensity
⚠️ Stay Weather-Aware
Residents in eastern Kansas, southeast Nebraska, northwest Missouri, and southwest Iowa should remain alert this afternoon and evening for rapidly developing supercells capable of producing strong to intense tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. Monitor updates closely and be prepared to take shelter if warnings are issued.
———————————
In-Vehicle
Driver, Man-of-Action - @ReedTimmerWx
Navigator, Man-of-Music - @localmanweatherofficial
Engineer, Man-of-Iron - @willclay25
Studio
Guy in the corner - @brianvotoole, but he doesn't really post anything. he's just laying in the cut, you know?
Thanks United Cajun Navy - unitedcajunnavy.org
BETA TEST THE APP! - noteforms.com/forms/radar-app-beta-sign-up-3wmohh
Check out our data - domlabs.io
🌪️ SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK – Monday, May 18, 2026 (11:25AM CDT Update)
SPC Risk Level: MODERATE (Level 4 of 5)
Valid through May 18, 2026 7:00 PM CDT Monday
📍 Major Cities in Risk Zones
🔴 MODERATE Risk: Topeka, KS, Lincoln, NE, St. Joseph, MO, Council Bluffs, IA
🟡 SLIGHT Risk: Wichita, KS, Kansas City, MO, Des Moines, IA, Omaha, NE
🟢 MARGINAL Risk: Oklahoma City, OK, Tulsa, OK, Fort Wayne, IN, Grand Rapids, MI
🌪️ Tornado Risk Zones
🔴 30% Tornado Risk (discrete supercells with strong to intense tornado potential): Topeka, KS, Lincoln, NE, St. Joseph, MO, Council Bluffs, IA
🟡 10% Tornado Risk (scattered tornadoes possible with supercells): Wichita, KS, Kansas City, MO, Des Moines, IA, Omaha, NE
What the Percentages Mean
A 30% tornado risk means there is a 1 in 3 chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. This area is most concerning for intense supercells capable of producing multiple strong to intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and damaging winds.
📝 Overview
A potent shortwave trough is moving across the central Rockies into western Kansas, supporting a strong surface boundary extending from western Iowa into central Kansas. An outflow boundary from overnight convection is lifting northward, allowing a very moist and extremely unstable air mass to spread into eastern Kansas, northwest Missouri, extreme southeast Nebraska, and southwest Iowa. This region is the primary focus for intense supercells later today.
Storm initiation is expected by early afternoon near the triple point of the retreating outflow boundary and cold front. These storms will track northeastward through the afternoon and early evening in a strongly sheared environment favorable for tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. While storm interactions may impact discrete supercell mode, strong tornadoes remain a significant concern.
Farther southwest, storms developing near the cold front across south-central Kansas may be more linear and slightly anafrontal, reducing tornado risk but maintaining threats for very large hail and damaging winds. In western Oklahoma and northwest Texas, isolated storms are expected along the dryline with risks of large hail and damaging winds, though weak forcing may limit intensity and duration.
⛈️ Hazards Include
🧊 Very large to giant hail (possible with supercells)
🌪️ Multiple strong to intense tornadoes (most likely in eastern KS, southeast NE, northwest MO, southwest IA)
💨 Damaging wind gusts (including within linear storm modes)
🕓 Timeline
12 PM–3 PM CDT: Storm initiation near triple point and cold front in central KS and western IA
3 PM–7 PM CDT: Peak severe threat with supercells tracking northeastward across eastern KS, southeast NE, northwest MO, and southwest IA
7 PM–12 AM CDT: Storms diminish and transition eastward into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region
📌 Regional Notes
🔴 Eastern Kansas/Southeast Nebraska → Intense supercells with strong tornado and giant hail potential
🟡 South-central Kansas → Large hail and damaging winds expected with somewhat reduced tornado threat
🟢 Western Oklahoma/Northwest Texas → Isolated storms with hail and wind threats, limited intensity
⚠️ Stay Weather-Aware
Residents in eastern Kansas, southeast Nebraska, northwest Missouri, and southwest Iowa should remain alert this afternoon and evening for rapidly developing supercells capable of producing strong to intense tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. Monitor updates closely and be prepared to take shelter if warnings are issued.
———————————
In-Vehicle
Driver, Man-of-Action - @ReedTimmerWx
Navigator, Man-of-Music - @localmanweatherofficial
Engineer, Man-of-Iron - @willclay25
Studio
Guy in the corner - @brianvotoole, but he doesn't really post anything. he's just laying in the cut, you know?
Thanks United Cajun Navy - unitedcajunnavy.org
