Uploaded June 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
We dig into some predictive fire spread models to look at how the Cottonwood Fire, in Utah, might behave over the next several days or weeks. We also talk about the art and science of wildfire modeling, and the serious limitations of current wildfire science to accurately predict how large fires will burn under extreme conditions.
Regardless of what the models do or don't say, this fire will be extinguished by the weather, or by running out of available fuels.
Since this broadcast we've gotten some maps of a recent (2024) fire to the west of Marysvale that decrease the likelihood (due to educed fuels within this fire scar) of this fire reaching Marysvale.
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We dig into some predictive fire spread models to look at how the Cottonwood Fire, in Utah, might behave over the next several days or weeks. We also talk about the art and science of wildfire modeling, and the serious limitations of current wildfire science to accurately predict how large fires will burn under extreme conditions.
Regardless of what the models do or don't say, this fire will be extinguished by the weather, or by running out of available fuels.
Since this broadcast we've gotten some maps of a recent (2024) fire to the west of Marysvale that decrease the likelihood (due to educed fuels within this fire scar) of this fire reaching Marysvale.
Thanks to our sustaining sponsors:
Deer Creek Resources - deercreekgis.com
FYREBX - fyrebx.com
WATERAX - waterax.com
Wildfire Safety Systems - wildfiresafetysystems.com
QTAC--qtacfire.com - Use checkout code 'The Lookout' for a free draft hose kit with any UTV or Pickup skid order!
Join our Patreon for extra content!
patreon.com/cw/TheLookout1
For Lookout Merch: ko-fi.com/thelookout/shop
We are viewer-supported. You can become a monthly Patreon or PayPal subscriber or make a one-time donation on our website: the-lookout.org
