Uploaded September 2025 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
Unprecedented Suppression of Panama’s Pacific Ocean Upwelling in 2025: ITCZ and the Mayan Collapse
For the satellite period over the last 40 years, without fail northerly winds (blowing from the north to the south) have crossed the Isthmus of Panama from January through March, blown surface water in the Pacific side southward, allowing cold, nutrient rich ocean water to upwell from the deep to replace the pushed water.
This year, it never happened. I chat about why. Hint: it involves trade winds and the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone).
By the way, when the ITCZ went wacky at times in the past, it is believed to have caused the collapse of the Mayan Civilization.
Please watch this video to see how, and why. Please share this knowledge far and wide...
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
Links:
Peer-reviewed scientific paper in PNAS (open-source):
Unprecedented suppression of Panama’s Pacific upwelling in 2025
Link: pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.2512056122
Abstract
The Gulf of Panama’s (GOP) seasonal upwelling system has consistently delivered cool, nutrient-rich waters via northerly trade winds every January–April for at least 40 y. Here, we document the failure of this normally highly predictable phenomenon in 2025. Data suggest that the cause was a reduction in Panama wind-jet frequency, duration, and strength, possibly related to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) position during the 2024–2025 La Niña, though the mechanisms remain
unclear. Nevertheless, the consequences are likely significant, including decreases in fisheries productivity and exacerbated thermal stress on corals that typically benefit from upwelling’s cooling. This event underscores how climate disruption can threaten wind-driven tropical upwelling systems, which remain poorly monitored and studied despite their importance to ecology and coastal economies.
Peer-reviewed paper: Historical ecology of the southern Central American Pacific coast
royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.2024.0042
Earth Nullschool: Isthmus of Panama winds
earth.nullschool.net/#2025/01/12/1300Z/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-75.72,7.17,1954/loc=-79.512,7.660
Wikipedia: Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intertropical_Convergence_Zone
NOAA government page on ITCZ
noaa.gov/jetstream/tropical/convergence-zone
Images of ITCZ variation over Isthmus of Panama
researchgate.net/figure/Seasonal-variations-in-the-mean-position-of-the-ITCZ-over-Mesoamerica-and-northern-South_fig1_10855144
Peer-reviewed Science paper:
Climate and the Collapse of Maya Civilization
Gerald H. Haug, Detlef Gunther, Larry C. Peterson,
Daniel M. Sigman, Konrad A. Hughen, Beat Aeschlimann
Linkto open-source scientific journal paper: researchgate.net/publication/10855144_Climate_and_the_Collapse_of_Maya_Civilization
Abstract
In the anoxic Cariaco Basin of the southern Caribbean, the bulk titanium content of undisturbed sediment reflects variations in riverine input and the hydrological cycle over northern tropical South America. A seasonally resolved record of titanium shows that the collapse of Maya civilization in the Terminal Classic Period occurred during an extended regional dry period, punctuated by more
intense multiyear droughts centered at approximately 810, 860, and 910 A.D. These new data suggest that a century-scale decline in rainfall put a general strain on resources in the region, which was then exacerbated by abrupt drought events, contributing to the social stresses that led to the Maya demise.
Please watch this video to see how, and why. Please share this knowledge far and wide...
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
Unprecedented Suppression of Panama’s Pacific Ocean Upwelling in 2025: ITCZ and the Mayan Collapse
For the satellite period over the last 40 years, without fail northerly winds (blowing from the north to the south) have crossed the Isthmus of Panama from January through March, blown surface water in the Pacific side southward, allowing cold, nutrient rich ocean water to upwell from the deep to replace the pushed water.
This year, it never happened. I chat about why. Hint: it involves trade winds and the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone).
By the way, when the ITCZ went wacky at times in the past, it is believed to have caused the collapse of the Mayan Civilization.
Please watch this video to see how, and why. Please share this knowledge far and wide...
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
Links:
Peer-reviewed scientific paper in PNAS (open-source):
Unprecedented suppression of Panama’s Pacific upwelling in 2025
Link: pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.2512056122
Abstract
The Gulf of Panama’s (GOP) seasonal upwelling system has consistently delivered cool, nutrient-rich waters via northerly trade winds every January–April for at least 40 y. Here, we document the failure of this normally highly predictable phenomenon in 2025. Data suggest that the cause was a reduction in Panama wind-jet frequency, duration, and strength, possibly related to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) position during the 2024–2025 La Niña, though the mechanisms remain
unclear. Nevertheless, the consequences are likely significant, including decreases in fisheries productivity and exacerbated thermal stress on corals that typically benefit from upwelling’s cooling. This event underscores how climate disruption can threaten wind-driven tropical upwelling systems, which remain poorly monitored and studied despite their importance to ecology and coastal economies.
Peer-reviewed paper: Historical ecology of the southern Central American Pacific coast
royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.2024.0042
Earth Nullschool: Isthmus of Panama winds
earth.nullschool.net/#2025/01/12/1300Z/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-75.72,7.17,1954/loc=-79.512,7.660
Wikipedia: Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intertropical_Convergence_Zone
NOAA government page on ITCZ
noaa.gov/jetstream/tropical/convergence-zone
Images of ITCZ variation over Isthmus of Panama
researchgate.net/figure/Seasonal-variations-in-the-mean-position-of-the-ITCZ-over-Mesoamerica-and-northern-South_fig1_10855144
Peer-reviewed Science paper:
Climate and the Collapse of Maya Civilization
Gerald H. Haug, Detlef Gunther, Larry C. Peterson,
Daniel M. Sigman, Konrad A. Hughen, Beat Aeschlimann
Linkto open-source scientific journal paper: researchgate.net/publication/10855144_Climate_and_the_Collapse_of_Maya_Civilization
Abstract
In the anoxic Cariaco Basin of the southern Caribbean, the bulk titanium content of undisturbed sediment reflects variations in riverine input and the hydrological cycle over northern tropical South America. A seasonally resolved record of titanium shows that the collapse of Maya civilization in the Terminal Classic Period occurred during an extended regional dry period, punctuated by more
intense multiyear droughts centered at approximately 810, 860, and 910 A.D. These new data suggest that a century-scale decline in rainfall put a general strain on resources in the region, which was then exacerbated by abrupt drought events, contributing to the social stresses that led to the Maya demise.
Please watch this video to see how, and why. Please share this knowledge far and wide...
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
