Perun | Ukraine's Kherson Campaign - Lessons & Implications of the Southern counterattack @PerunAU | Uploaded November 2022 | Updated October 2024, 6 days ago.
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Description:
While much of the narrative around the early stages of Russia's 2022 invasion centre on the battle for Kyiv and the reverses Russia suffered there, in the South, the Russian invasion was altogether more successful in its opening moves.
Advancing from Crimea, the Russians rapidly secured a number of critical positions in the South of the country, including a regional capital on the right bank of the Dnipro, the city of Kherson.
The fighting to take back Kherson would be some of the hardest for Ukrainian forces. They would face a number of high quality Russian units who were heavily dug in, and they would do it over unfavourable ground.
The fighting would take months and claim many lines before the final Russian withdrawal in November.
This is the story of that campaign - from the city's fall to its liberation, along with some of the lessons and observations that we can (with admittedly low confidence levels) make using the data available so far.
Caveats:
Data quality and certainty will always vary video to video. In the case of this video, the topic in question is battlefield movements and the conduct of operations. As such, there is a considerably lower level of confidence than there are over major economic patterns for example.
I expect that at least some of this analysis will be refuted or augmented by later discoveries or data releases - at which point I will prepare an update. But given the implications of this campaign, I thought it best to try and tell the story now, with the best information we currently have available.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Further Reading/Sources:
Several maps used credit of the Institute for the Study of War, eg.
understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-28-2022
Visually confirmed loss statistics as per Oryx:
oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html (and Ukr equivalent)
RE: Russian media statements - special credit to the work of people like Julia Davis & Wartranslated
twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
twitter.com/wartranslated?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Telegram extracts from both the Russian MoD and Russia's Kherson administration are used - as always I do not link directly to these but they are credited here
Regarding the Antonovski campaign - the best thread documenting strikes and inadvertent BDA is maintained by the Twitter User Special Kherson Cat
mobile.twitter.com/bayraktar_1love
twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1558720653347487745?lang=en
Graphics from the videos of Kings and Generals Included:
youtu.be/yBZPE9o2gHU
And as always thanks to other OSINT channels and aggregators, including Ukraine Weapons Tracker twitter.com/UAWeapons?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
....and to all those interviewed or questioned directly in preparation for this video.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:02:36 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:18 — SPONSOR: GROUND NEWS
00:04:29 — The Fall of Kherson
00:07:20 — Victory at Mykolaiv
00:09:34 — Steady Transition
00:10:19 — The Shaping Campaign
00:12:06 — Telegraphing the Offensive
00:14:25 — The Himars Campaign
00:16:51 — The Crimean Dimension
00:17:51 — Concentrating Capability
00:20:00 — The Campaign Begins
00:21:44 — The Attack Goes In
00:22:42 — Russia Claim Victory
00:24:52 — Announcing Victory
00:26:04 — Continuing Pressure
00:27:21 — Supply, Attrition, Corrosion
00:28:05 — The Story of a Bridge
00:29:33 — Back and Forth
00:31:45 — Final Days
00:32:55 — The End
00:33:04 — The First Cracks
00:34:42 — The Withdrawal
00:39:03 — Reclamation
00:40:09 — Losses and Military Observations
00:44:39 — New Capabilities...
00:46:06 — ... And Old Ones
00:47:10 — The Cost of Victory...
00:47:52 — ... And of Defeat
00:49:10 — Interrogating Losses
00:50:48 — Some Very Old Stuff...
00:53:33 — Reactions & Significance
00:53:52 — Ukrainian Elation?
00:55:35 — Russia - Confusion and Anger
00:57:39 — International Community
00:58:55 — Discrediting "Annexation"
01:01:00 — What Next?
01:01:12 — Reading the Terrain
01:03:55 — Redeployment Opportunities
01:05:23 — Towards a Winter Campaign
01:07:24 — Conclusions
01:10:19 — Channel Update
Sponsored by Ground News:
Compare news coverage. Spot media bias. Avoid algorithms. Be well informed. Download the free Ground News app at: https://www.ground.news/perun
Description:
While much of the narrative around the early stages of Russia's 2022 invasion centre on the battle for Kyiv and the reverses Russia suffered there, in the South, the Russian invasion was altogether more successful in its opening moves.
Advancing from Crimea, the Russians rapidly secured a number of critical positions in the South of the country, including a regional capital on the right bank of the Dnipro, the city of Kherson.
The fighting to take back Kherson would be some of the hardest for Ukrainian forces. They would face a number of high quality Russian units who were heavily dug in, and they would do it over unfavourable ground.
The fighting would take months and claim many lines before the final Russian withdrawal in November.
This is the story of that campaign - from the city's fall to its liberation, along with some of the lessons and observations that we can (with admittedly low confidence levels) make using the data available so far.
Caveats:
Data quality and certainty will always vary video to video. In the case of this video, the topic in question is battlefield movements and the conduct of operations. As such, there is a considerably lower level of confidence than there are over major economic patterns for example.
I expect that at least some of this analysis will be refuted or augmented by later discoveries or data releases - at which point I will prepare an update. But given the implications of this campaign, I thought it best to try and tell the story now, with the best information we currently have available.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Further Reading/Sources:
Several maps used credit of the Institute for the Study of War, eg.
understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-28-2022
Visually confirmed loss statistics as per Oryx:
oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html (and Ukr equivalent)
RE: Russian media statements - special credit to the work of people like Julia Davis & Wartranslated
twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
twitter.com/wartranslated?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Telegram extracts from both the Russian MoD and Russia's Kherson administration are used - as always I do not link directly to these but they are credited here
Regarding the Antonovski campaign - the best thread documenting strikes and inadvertent BDA is maintained by the Twitter User Special Kherson Cat
mobile.twitter.com/bayraktar_1love
twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1558720653347487745?lang=en
Graphics from the videos of Kings and Generals Included:
youtu.be/yBZPE9o2gHU
And as always thanks to other OSINT channels and aggregators, including Ukraine Weapons Tracker twitter.com/UAWeapons?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
....and to all those interviewed or questioned directly in preparation for this video.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:02:36 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:18 — SPONSOR: GROUND NEWS
00:04:29 — The Fall of Kherson
00:07:20 — Victory at Mykolaiv
00:09:34 — Steady Transition
00:10:19 — The Shaping Campaign
00:12:06 — Telegraphing the Offensive
00:14:25 — The Himars Campaign
00:16:51 — The Crimean Dimension
00:17:51 — Concentrating Capability
00:20:00 — The Campaign Begins
00:21:44 — The Attack Goes In
00:22:42 — Russia Claim Victory
00:24:52 — Announcing Victory
00:26:04 — Continuing Pressure
00:27:21 — Supply, Attrition, Corrosion
00:28:05 — The Story of a Bridge
00:29:33 — Back and Forth
00:31:45 — Final Days
00:32:55 — The End
00:33:04 — The First Cracks
00:34:42 — The Withdrawal
00:39:03 — Reclamation
00:40:09 — Losses and Military Observations
00:44:39 — New Capabilities...
00:46:06 — ... And Old Ones
00:47:10 — The Cost of Victory...
00:47:52 — ... And of Defeat
00:49:10 — Interrogating Losses
00:50:48 — Some Very Old Stuff...
00:53:33 — Reactions & Significance
00:53:52 — Ukrainian Elation?
00:55:35 — Russia - Confusion and Anger
00:57:39 — International Community
00:58:55 — Discrediting "Annexation"
01:01:00 — What Next?
01:01:12 — Reading the Terrain
01:03:55 — Redeployment Opportunities
01:05:23 — Towards a Winter Campaign
01:07:24 — Conclusions
01:10:19 — Channel Update
