Uploaded April 2025 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
Lemonade (LMND) stock is down 50% from its highs, but weâre not sweating itâin fact, weâre doubling down. In this clip from last weekâs Tuesday Livestream, Matt and Bradford break down whatâs really going on under the hood of Lemonade and why we still think it's wildly misunderstood.
Wall Street sees losses.
We see predictable gross margins, cash flow, and a path to scale that most analysts are completely missing.
đ Timestamps to jump around:
[00:00] LMND is downâwhatâs going on?
[00:15] The gross margin story and fixed cost leverage
[01:10] Lemonadeâs high beta and volatility potential
[01:48] Is LMND insulated from macro shocks like tariffs?
[02:20] Two years to GAAP profitability? Hereâs why thatâs fine
[02:39] Losses â failure: understanding the marketing spend
[03:02] Response to legacy insurance critiques
[04:07] Tesla vs. Lemonade: the CapEx accounting analogy
[05:12] Modeling customer cohorts and long-term value
[05:47] âBoringâ business, unsexy alpha
[06:25] We trimmed near the peakânow weâre hungry at $25
[06:56] Slight model tweak, same fundamental thesis
[07:10] The case for being long LMND
đş This is a segment from our Tuesday Livestream â catch us live every Tuesday at 4PM EDT to hear our takes in real time.
đ Subscribe to Rebellionaire for more deep dives on misunderstood stocks and high-conviction investing.
Rebellionaire is a brand of Halter Ferguson Financial. hffinancial.com/disclaimer
As of April 14th, 2025, clients and employees of our firm Halter Ferguson Financial own Lemonade, Inc. stock and/or options and thereby stand to materially benefit from a rise in the share price. Past performance is no assurance of future results. Halter Ferguson Financial, Inc. (âHalter Ferguson Financialâ) is a registered investment adviser with its principal place of business in the State of Indiana. A complete list of all recommendations will be provided if requested for the preceding period of not less than one year. It should not be assumed that recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities in this list. Opinions expressed are those of Halter Ferguson Financial, Inc. and are subject to change, not guaranteed and should not be considered recommendations to buy or sell any security.
Halter Ferguson Financial is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Registration as an investment advisor does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the advisor has attained a particular level of skill or ability.
Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the author/presenter as of the date of publication and are subject to change and do not constitute personalized investment advice. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the strategies presented. No content should be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein.
Halter Ferguson Financial does not represent, warranty, or imply that the services or methods of analysis employed by the Firm can or will predict future results, successfully identify market tops or bottoms, or insulate clients from losses due to market corrections or declines.
Investments are subject to market risks and potential loss of principal invested, and all investment strategies likewise have the potential for profit or loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or profitable for a client's portfolio. There are also no assurances that any portfolio will match or outperform any particular benchmark.
Lemonade (LMND) stock is down 50% from its highs, but weâre not sweating itâin fact, weâre doubling down. In this clip from last weekâs Tuesday Livestream, Matt and Bradford break down whatâs really going on under the hood of Lemonade and why we still think it's wildly misunderstood.
Wall Street sees losses.
We see predictable gross margins, cash flow, and a path to scale that most analysts are completely missing.
đ Timestamps to jump around:
[00:00] LMND is downâwhatâs going on?
[00:15] The gross margin story and fixed cost leverage
[01:10] Lemonadeâs high beta and volatility potential
[01:48] Is LMND insulated from macro shocks like tariffs?
[02:20] Two years to GAAP profitability? Hereâs why thatâs fine
[02:39] Losses â failure: understanding the marketing spend
[03:02] Response to legacy insurance critiques
[04:07] Tesla vs. Lemonade: the CapEx accounting analogy
[05:12] Modeling customer cohorts and long-term value
[05:47] âBoringâ business, unsexy alpha
[06:25] We trimmed near the peakânow weâre hungry at $25
[06:56] Slight model tweak, same fundamental thesis
[07:10] The case for being long LMND
đş This is a segment from our Tuesday Livestream â catch us live every Tuesday at 4PM EDT to hear our takes in real time.
đ Subscribe to Rebellionaire for more deep dives on misunderstood stocks and high-conviction investing.
Rebellionaire is a brand of Halter Ferguson Financial. hffinancial.com/disclaimer
As of April 14th, 2025, clients and employees of our firm Halter Ferguson Financial own Lemonade, Inc. stock and/or options and thereby stand to materially benefit from a rise in the share price. Past performance is no assurance of future results. Halter Ferguson Financial, Inc. (âHalter Ferguson Financialâ) is a registered investment adviser with its principal place of business in the State of Indiana. A complete list of all recommendations will be provided if requested for the preceding period of not less than one year. It should not be assumed that recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities in this list. Opinions expressed are those of Halter Ferguson Financial, Inc. and are subject to change, not guaranteed and should not be considered recommendations to buy or sell any security.
Halter Ferguson Financial is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Registration as an investment advisor does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the advisor has attained a particular level of skill or ability.
Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the author/presenter as of the date of publication and are subject to change and do not constitute personalized investment advice. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the strategies presented. No content should be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein.
Halter Ferguson Financial does not represent, warranty, or imply that the services or methods of analysis employed by the Firm can or will predict future results, successfully identify market tops or bottoms, or insulate clients from losses due to market corrections or declines.
Investments are subject to market risks and potential loss of principal invested, and all investment strategies likewise have the potential for profit or loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or profitable for a client's portfolio. There are also no assurances that any portfolio will match or outperform any particular benchmark.
