Uploaded August 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
Learn more at rebellionaire.com
Lemonade Just Lost 25% of Its Market Cap — Here's What the Chart They STOPPED Showing Tells Us 🍋📉
Lemonade's Q2 earnings beat our internal model on the top AND bottom line… so why did the stock crater the next day?
Matt Smith of Rebellionaire digs into the one thing that spooked the market: the famous "in-force premium up, operating expenses flat" chart — the bull thesis in a single picture — has quietly disappeared from Lemonade's reporting. In this video, Matt rebuilds the missing numbers himself and walks through exactly where the expense growth is coming from.
In this video:
🍋 The iconic operating-leverage chart Lemonade showed for years — and why it vanished
📊 Tech development up 34% YoY: stock-based comp, new hires, and rising AI token spend
🔍 G&A up a scary-looking 85% — but Matt's waterfall shows "core" G&A only grew $1.5M once you strip out one-time items, stock comp, and interest expense
💸 Why interest expense from the synthetic agents program deserves its own line item
🏆 The genuinely great news: industry-leading loss adjustment expense, compounding gross profit, and a still-intact 3X+ LTV/CAC
🎯 Updated DCF: our present value moves from ~$180-190 to ~$152 — but with the stock under $50, the upside is actually BIGGER than before
We're still huge fans and still large holders (check our 13F under Halter Ferguson Financial — yes, we're talking our book). Management's story is intact; we just wish they'd shown their work.
Shoutout to Paperbag, Domian, and the Lemonade community for their great coverage — and keep an eye out for CEO Daniel Schreiber's upcoming appearance on Paperbag's channel.
⚠️ Not investment advice. Do your own research. This video reflects the opinions of Matt Smith and Rebellionaire / Halter Ferguson Financial, who hold positions in Lemonade (LMND).
Rebellionaire is a brand of Halter Ferguson Financial. hffinancial.com/disclaimer
As of July 31st, 2026, clients and employees of our firm Halter Ferguson Financial own Lemonade stock and/or options and thereby stand to materially benefit from a rise in the share price. Past performance is no assurance of future results. Halter Ferguson Financial, Inc. (“Halter Ferguson Financial”) is a registered investment adviser with its principal place of business in the State of Indiana. A complete list of all recommendations will be provided if requested for the preceding period of not less than one year. It should not be assumed that recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities in this list. Opinions expressed are those of Halter Ferguson Financial, Inc. and are subject to change, not guaranteed and should not be considered recommendations to buy or sell any security.
Halter Ferguson Financial is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Registration as an investment advisor does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the advisor has attained a particular level of skill or ability.
Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the author/presenter as of the date of publication and are subject to change and do not constitute personalized investment advice. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the strategies presented. No content should be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein.
Halter Ferguson Financial does not represent, warranty, or imply that the services or methods of analysis employed by the Firm can or will predict future results, successfully identify market tops or bottoms, or insulate clients from losses due to market corrections or declines.
Investments are subject to market risks and potential loss of principal invested, and all investment strategies likewise have the potential for profit or loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or profitable for a client's portfolio. There are also no assurances that any portfolio will match or outperform any particular benchmark.
Learn more at rebellionaire.com
Lemonade Just Lost 25% of Its Market Cap — Here's What the Chart They STOPPED Showing Tells Us 🍋📉
Lemonade's Q2 earnings beat our internal model on the top AND bottom line… so why did the stock crater the next day?
Matt Smith of Rebellionaire digs into the one thing that spooked the market: the famous "in-force premium up, operating expenses flat" chart — the bull thesis in a single picture — has quietly disappeared from Lemonade's reporting. In this video, Matt rebuilds the missing numbers himself and walks through exactly where the expense growth is coming from.
In this video:
🍋 The iconic operating-leverage chart Lemonade showed for years — and why it vanished
📊 Tech development up 34% YoY: stock-based comp, new hires, and rising AI token spend
🔍 G&A up a scary-looking 85% — but Matt's waterfall shows "core" G&A only grew $1.5M once you strip out one-time items, stock comp, and interest expense
💸 Why interest expense from the synthetic agents program deserves its own line item
🏆 The genuinely great news: industry-leading loss adjustment expense, compounding gross profit, and a still-intact 3X+ LTV/CAC
🎯 Updated DCF: our present value moves from ~$180-190 to ~$152 — but with the stock under $50, the upside is actually BIGGER than before
We're still huge fans and still large holders (check our 13F under Halter Ferguson Financial — yes, we're talking our book). Management's story is intact; we just wish they'd shown their work.
Shoutout to Paperbag, Domian, and the Lemonade community for their great coverage — and keep an eye out for CEO Daniel Schreiber's upcoming appearance on Paperbag's channel.
⚠️ Not investment advice. Do your own research. This video reflects the opinions of Matt Smith and Rebellionaire / Halter Ferguson Financial, who hold positions in Lemonade (LMND).
Rebellionaire is a brand of Halter Ferguson Financial. hffinancial.com/disclaimer
As of July 31st, 2026, clients and employees of our firm Halter Ferguson Financial own Lemonade stock and/or options and thereby stand to materially benefit from a rise in the share price. Past performance is no assurance of future results. Halter Ferguson Financial, Inc. (“Halter Ferguson Financial”) is a registered investment adviser with its principal place of business in the State of Indiana. A complete list of all recommendations will be provided if requested for the preceding period of not less than one year. It should not be assumed that recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities in this list. Opinions expressed are those of Halter Ferguson Financial, Inc. and are subject to change, not guaranteed and should not be considered recommendations to buy or sell any security.
Halter Ferguson Financial is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Registration as an investment advisor does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the advisor has attained a particular level of skill or ability.
Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the author/presenter as of the date of publication and are subject to change and do not constitute personalized investment advice. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the strategies presented. No content should be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein.
Halter Ferguson Financial does not represent, warranty, or imply that the services or methods of analysis employed by the Firm can or will predict future results, successfully identify market tops or bottoms, or insulate clients from losses due to market corrections or declines.
Investments are subject to market risks and potential loss of principal invested, and all investment strategies likewise have the potential for profit or loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or profitable for a client's portfolio. There are also no assurances that any portfolio will match or outperform any particular benchmark.
