Uploaded July 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
The conflict in the Middle East is testing the resilience of the global economy.
The outlook is surrounded by high uncertainty and reflects the interaction of two opposing forces:
- On the upside, growth is supported by strong momentum in technology-related investment and production, lower tariff rates than previously assumed, and carry-over from robust outcomes in 2025.
- On the downside, the halt in shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and the closure and damage of some energy infrastructure has generated a surge in energy prices and disrupted the global supply of energy and other important commodities, such as fertilisers. This is raising costs, weighing on demand and adding to inflationary pressures.
Read more in our latest Interim oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-march-2026_d4623013-en.html
To learn more about the OECD, our global reach, and how to join us, go to oecd.org/about/.
To keep up with the latest at the OECD, visit oecd.org/.
Chapters
00:01 - 00:30 Introduction to the event
00:30 – 01:06 Welcome address by the OECD Secretary General Mathias Cormann
01:06 – 02:27 Global economy: A new energy supply shock
04:40 – 05:17 Growth in industrial and technology sector
05:18 – 06:05 The effects of global tariffs
06:06 – 10:03 GDP Growth and inflation projections
10:03 – 11:20 Risks: Inflation trends and upward Revisions
11:21 – 12:34 Risks: Energy, Food, and Fertiliser Markets
12:35 – 16:44 Risks: Financial markets, global debt, monetary policy
16:45 – 27:45 Risks: Trade tensions
17:41 - 18:00 Reducing reliance on fossil fuel imports
18:04 –18:39 Summary for strengthening resilience
18:40 – 19:05 Questions with Åsa Johansson, Director of the Policy Studies Research Branch at the OECD Economics Department
19:06 – 21:58 Q&A 1 If energy prices, particularly LNG, stay higher for longer than assumed, how much downside risk would this pose to your global growth forecast?
22:00 – 22:54 Q&A Are the major economies more resilient to price increases than in the past?
22:56 – 23:46 Q&A 3 You call for central banks to remain vigilant. Should the focus be more on inflation, or risks to growth?
23:48 – 24:52 Q&A 4 How quickly could growth be recovered if hostilities ceased?
24:54 – 26:25 Q&A 5 Can you explain why the Outlook for the European countries has been revised downward for 2026 while the opposite is true for the United States?
26:27 – 27:25 Q&A 6 hat's your main message to Italy today?
27:17 – 28:06 Q&A 7 Why was the UK getting the biggest downgrade in your forecast?
28:09 – 29:09 Q&A 8 Are there countries disproportionately exposed to the current energy shock, and are there countries that are less exposed?
29:10 – 29-29 Closing remarks
#economicoutlook #oecd #ocde #globaleconomy #energycrisis
The conflict in the Middle East is testing the resilience of the global economy.
The outlook is surrounded by high uncertainty and reflects the interaction of two opposing forces:
- On the upside, growth is supported by strong momentum in technology-related investment and production, lower tariff rates than previously assumed, and carry-over from robust outcomes in 2025.
- On the downside, the halt in shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and the closure and damage of some energy infrastructure has generated a surge in energy prices and disrupted the global supply of energy and other important commodities, such as fertilisers. This is raising costs, weighing on demand and adding to inflationary pressures.
Read more in our latest Interim oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-march-2026_d4623013-en.html
To learn more about the OECD, our global reach, and how to join us, go to oecd.org/about/.
To keep up with the latest at the OECD, visit oecd.org/.
Chapters
00:01 - 00:30 Introduction to the event
00:30 – 01:06 Welcome address by the OECD Secretary General Mathias Cormann
01:06 – 02:27 Global economy: A new energy supply shock
04:40 – 05:17 Growth in industrial and technology sector
05:18 – 06:05 The effects of global tariffs
06:06 – 10:03 GDP Growth and inflation projections
10:03 – 11:20 Risks: Inflation trends and upward Revisions
11:21 – 12:34 Risks: Energy, Food, and Fertiliser Markets
12:35 – 16:44 Risks: Financial markets, global debt, monetary policy
16:45 – 27:45 Risks: Trade tensions
17:41 - 18:00 Reducing reliance on fossil fuel imports
18:04 –18:39 Summary for strengthening resilience
18:40 – 19:05 Questions with Åsa Johansson, Director of the Policy Studies Research Branch at the OECD Economics Department
19:06 – 21:58 Q&A 1 If energy prices, particularly LNG, stay higher for longer than assumed, how much downside risk would this pose to your global growth forecast?
22:00 – 22:54 Q&A Are the major economies more resilient to price increases than in the past?
22:56 – 23:46 Q&A 3 You call for central banks to remain vigilant. Should the focus be more on inflation, or risks to growth?
23:48 – 24:52 Q&A 4 How quickly could growth be recovered if hostilities ceased?
24:54 – 26:25 Q&A 5 Can you explain why the Outlook for the European countries has been revised downward for 2026 while the opposite is true for the United States?
26:27 – 27:25 Q&A 6 hat's your main message to Italy today?
27:17 – 28:06 Q&A 7 Why was the UK getting the biggest downgrade in your forecast?
28:09 – 29:09 Q&A 8 Are there countries disproportionately exposed to the current energy shock, and are there countries that are less exposed?
29:10 – 29-29 Closing remarks
#economicoutlook #oecd #ocde #globaleconomy #energycrisis
