Uploaded January 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
Policymakers, analysts, and the intelligence community frequently confront complex, emerging challenges that test their best analytical techniques. However, individual experts often struggle when it comes to predicting future events - one political psychologist has suggested that, on average, their accuracy is comparable to chance. Crowdsourced forecasting offers an innovative approach to government foresight. Crowdsourced forecasting is the practice of aggregating quantitative predictions about future events or trends from large groups of people. It represents a substantive improvement in predictive work because multiple perspectives help mitigate the impact of cognitive biases and individuals can be trained to produce better forecasts. In this masterclass, Dr. Christopher Dictus from the RAND Forecasting Initiative provided an introduction to crowdsourced forecasting: demonstrating how the process works and how it can be integrated with other foresight methods.
ABOUT THE OECD
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is an international organisation established in 1960 that works collaboratively to build better policies for better lives. Our goal is to shape policies that foster prosperity, equality, opportunity and well-being for all. Together with governments, policy makers, policy shapers, and citizens, we work on establishing evidence-based international standards and finding solutions to a range of social, economic and environmental challenges. From improving economic performance and creating jobs to fostering strong education and fighting international tax evasion, we provide a unique forum and knowledge hub for data and analysis, exchange of experiences, best-practice sharing, and advice on public policies and international standard-setting.
To learn more about the OECD, our global reach, and how to join us, go to oecd.org/about/.
To keep up with the latest at the OECD, visit oecd.org/.
Policymakers, analysts, and the intelligence community frequently confront complex, emerging challenges that test their best analytical techniques. However, individual experts often struggle when it comes to predicting future events - one political psychologist has suggested that, on average, their accuracy is comparable to chance. Crowdsourced forecasting offers an innovative approach to government foresight. Crowdsourced forecasting is the practice of aggregating quantitative predictions about future events or trends from large groups of people. It represents a substantive improvement in predictive work because multiple perspectives help mitigate the impact of cognitive biases and individuals can be trained to produce better forecasts. In this masterclass, Dr. Christopher Dictus from the RAND Forecasting Initiative provided an introduction to crowdsourced forecasting: demonstrating how the process works and how it can be integrated with other foresight methods.
ABOUT THE OECD
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is an international organisation established in 1960 that works collaboratively to build better policies for better lives. Our goal is to shape policies that foster prosperity, equality, opportunity and well-being for all. Together with governments, policy makers, policy shapers, and citizens, we work on establishing evidence-based international standards and finding solutions to a range of social, economic and environmental challenges. From improving economic performance and creating jobs to fostering strong education and fighting international tax evasion, we provide a unique forum and knowledge hub for data and analysis, exchange of experiences, best-practice sharing, and advice on public policies and international standard-setting.
To learn more about the OECD, our global reach, and how to join us, go to oecd.org/about/.
To keep up with the latest at the OECD, visit oecd.org/.
