Uploaded March 2026 | Updated September 2026, 1 week ago
In this session, we begin by classifying non-financial indicators that have been used to time markets into three groups: spurious indicators that are correlated the market but have no economic relationship, feel good indicators that try to measure investor optimism and often work better as contemporaneous rather than leading indicators of stock prices and hype indicators that attempt to measure the fad factor in stock prices, with the assumption that hype goes before a fall. With technical indicators, we note that past market price movements have generally not been good indicators of future movements but that trading volume and volatility shifts may provide more timing promise.
Playlist for class (Intro + 42 sessions): youtube.com/playlist?list=PLUkh9m2BorqnZGADa8cTzeJblmrZY_SqP&si=zI2pk17pJeld4nWR
Slides: https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/invphilslides25/session31.pdf
Post-class test: https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/invphilcertificate/postclass/session31test.pdf
Post-class solution: https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/invphilcertificate/postclass/session31soln.pdf
In this session, we begin by classifying non-financial indicators that have been used to time markets into three groups: spurious indicators that are correlated the market but have no economic relationship, feel good indicators that try to measure investor optimism and often work better as contemporaneous rather than leading indicators of stock prices and hype indicators that attempt to measure the fad factor in stock prices, with the assumption that hype goes before a fall. With technical indicators, we note that past market price movements have generally not been good indicators of future movements but that trading volume and volatility shifts may provide more timing promise.
Playlist for class (Intro + 42 sessions): youtube.com/playlist?list=PLUkh9m2BorqnZGADa8cTzeJblmrZY_SqP&si=zI2pk17pJeld4nWR
Slides: https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/invphilslides25/session31.pdf
Post-class test: https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/invphilcertificate/postclass/session31test.pdf
Post-class solution: https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/invphilcertificate/postclass/session31soln.pdf
