Uploaded August 2026 | Updated September 2026, 9 hours ago

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🎙️NEXTPredict Podcast #1 with Robin Hanson, Assoc. Professor, Economics at George Mason University

Robin Hanson has been arguing we should "bet on what's true" since the late 1980s — decades before Kalshi and Polymarket turned prediction markets into a billion-dollar industry. A physicist-turned-economist who helped invent the market-making math running under today's biggest betting platforms, Hanson joins the show to explain why prediction markets are having their moment now, what's next for the space, and why he thinks the real prize isn't sports betting. It's "decision markets" that could change how governments, companies, and the Fed make decisions?

⏰ Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro: who is Robin Hanson
01:40 - What is a prediction market?
04:06 - Why now: the regulatory shift behind the boom
06:32 - Decision markets: paying for better information
13:50 - Governments, the Fed, and antitrust by market
17:40 - Diverse perspectives and trader bias
21:50 - Insider trading and the "Rounders" problem
26:54 - Gambling addiction and who should regulate prediction markets
30:54 - Wisdom of crowds vs. first principles: the Nokia/iPhone test
34:55 - Futarchy: replacing shareholder votes with markets
35:43 - Where is this space heading in three years?
38:35 - Final thoughts: keeping companies honest
40:11 - Sign-off


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