Uploaded August 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago

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Nonfarm payrolls turned negative when a gain was expected, pulling the two-year Treasury yield lower and steepening the curve.

Shriya Samarth, StoneX Head of Rates, EMEA, breaks down how a negative payrolls print did more than miss expectations, it reset how far the Federal Reserve is expected to move in 2026. With revisions clouding the data and forward guidance fading, the market is left to price the rate path largely on its own.

View her full report in the related video.