Uploaded October 2025 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
#taiwan #uschina #onechinapolicy #uschinarelations
Despite uncertainty in the Trump administration’s China policy, dangerous trends across the Taiwan Strait continue to raise the chance of crisis. Tensions are deepening in the overall U.S.–China relationship, and the credibility of Washington’s One China policy and Beijing’s support for peaceful unification is mutually eroding. While China continues to expand its military capabilities and intimidate Taiwan, the U.S. is keen to mobilize its regional alliances to enhance warfighting against China.
These developments raise the question of whether the longstanding U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity, which contains the possibility of U.S. military intervention to defend Taiwan against China, remains the best approach to preventing war over the island.
Quincy Institute senior research fellow Michael Swaine recently published two policy briefs arguing that Taiwan is not a sufficiently vital interest for the United States to go to war over. He contends that Washington should begin transitioning to a policy beyond strategic ambiguity — a new approach that seeks to enhance support for Taiwan but rules out the possibility of joining a war over the island.
To discuss the advantages and disadvantages of such a significant change in policy, the Quincy Institute held a webinar featuring Swaine, Eric Heginbotham, principal research scientist at MIT’s Security Studies Program, and Bonnie Glaser, managing director of German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific Program. Jake Werner, director of Quincy Institute’s East Asia Program, moderated.
* Download the full webinar transcript here*:
quincyinst.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/22134917/Preventing-Taiwan-War_-Is-Strategic-Ambiguity-Still-Working_.docx.pdf
Quincy Institute is an independent, nonprofit think tank. To support our work:
Help fund our research: quincyinst.org/donations
Read our reporting: ResponsibleStatecraft.org
TikTok: / quincyinst
Twitter: https://x.com/QuincyInst
Facebook: / quincyinst
Instagram: / quincyinst
Website: quincyinst.org
#taiwan #uschina #onechinapolicy #uschinarelations
Despite uncertainty in the Trump administration’s China policy, dangerous trends across the Taiwan Strait continue to raise the chance of crisis. Tensions are deepening in the overall U.S.–China relationship, and the credibility of Washington’s One China policy and Beijing’s support for peaceful unification is mutually eroding. While China continues to expand its military capabilities and intimidate Taiwan, the U.S. is keen to mobilize its regional alliances to enhance warfighting against China.
These developments raise the question of whether the longstanding U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity, which contains the possibility of U.S. military intervention to defend Taiwan against China, remains the best approach to preventing war over the island.
Quincy Institute senior research fellow Michael Swaine recently published two policy briefs arguing that Taiwan is not a sufficiently vital interest for the United States to go to war over. He contends that Washington should begin transitioning to a policy beyond strategic ambiguity — a new approach that seeks to enhance support for Taiwan but rules out the possibility of joining a war over the island.
To discuss the advantages and disadvantages of such a significant change in policy, the Quincy Institute held a webinar featuring Swaine, Eric Heginbotham, principal research scientist at MIT’s Security Studies Program, and Bonnie Glaser, managing director of German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific Program. Jake Werner, director of Quincy Institute’s East Asia Program, moderated.
* Download the full webinar transcript here*:
quincyinst.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/22134917/Preventing-Taiwan-War_-Is-Strategic-Ambiguity-Still-Working_.docx.pdf
Quincy Institute is an independent, nonprofit think tank. To support our work:
Help fund our research: quincyinst.org/donations
Read our reporting: ResponsibleStatecraft.org
TikTok: / quincyinst
Twitter: https://x.com/QuincyInst
Facebook: / quincyinst
Instagram: / quincyinst
Website: quincyinst.org
