Uploaded August 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago

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더 높아진 성장 눈높이… 주요 기관, 한은 3.3% 웃돌아

Korea's economic outlook is getting brighter as quite a number of major institutions believe its expansion this year will surpass the Bank of Korea's 3-point-3 percent projection.
Our correspondent Kim Jun-hong explains.

Growth forecasts for Korea are being pushed higher, as robust chip exports and recovering domestic demand brighten the economic outlook.
The Bank of Korea last week raised its growth forecast by 0-point-7 percentage points, from 2-point-6 to 3-point-3 percent.
But many institutions at home and abroad expect growth to rise even higher.

Bloomberg data show a sharp shift in growth expectations over the past two months.
The number of institutions forecasting growth of 3 percent or more jumped from 11 in June to 29 in August, nearly 70 percent of the 42 surveyed.
Among them, 14 now expect growth of at least 3-point-5 percent, more than double the six in June.

Capital Economics and ING Financial Markets were the most bullish, both forecasting 4 percent growth.
ING, in particular, raised its forecast by a full percentage point in just two months.

Views on next year's growth, however, are more divided.
The BOK raised next year's growth forecast by 0-point-8 percentage points to 2-point-9 percent, expecting the chip upcycle to spread to other sectors in the economy.
But the median forecast among the 42 institutions stands lower, at 2-point-3 percent.

Such a sharp upgrade by the central bank is seen as unusual amid rising interest rates.
The BOK delivered a second straight rate hike last Thursday, bringing the interest rate to 3 percent, while signaling further monetary tightening over the next six months.
Higher rates typically weigh on growth by slowing consumption and investment, yet experts say exceptionally strong chip demand is offsetting that drag.

"But perhaps the two interest increases we have now may not be enough because the semiconductor demand is so strong that they do not seem to be affected by the rise in interest rates, and partially because of that, the two interest rate increases may not have that much effect on reducing the household debt "

The broader impact of the chip boom has yet to fully materialize this year.
Analysts see its spread to other industries as key to sustaining solid growth into next year.

Kim Jun-hong, Arirang News.

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2026-08-31, 17:00 (KST)