Uploaded July 2026 | Updated September 2026, 1 week ago
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In this Global Macro Update, Nik covers today's FOMC decision and Kevin Warsh's press conference, where the new Fed chair reaffirmed the 2% inflation target as a firm goal and made clear he is steering the Fed away from forward guidance. Nik explains why Warsh took credit for the recent rise in Treasury yields, calling it healthy price discovery, and why Warsh now says the Fed will look to the Treasury market for signal rather than telling markets what it will do. He also covers the yield curve steepening on the day, the Nasdaq correction and Korea's stock market crash, and why he thinks Treasury yields have left their four-year anchor for good.
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The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Club Orange. One of the best parts of bitcoin is the people, and some of the strongest friendships and opportunities come from meeting other bitcoiners. Club Orange makes that easy. Whether you're at home or traveling for a conference, you can find local bitcoiners, discover the next meetup, and locate merchants that accept bitcoin, all in one app. Every city has an incredible bitcoin community; you just need a way to find it. Learn more at cluborange.org/thebitcoinlayer, or download Club Orange on the App Store or Google Play. When you join, send Nik a DM.
Timestamps:
00:00 FOMC holds, and the Warsh press conference that moved markets
00:35 Warsh on the 2% inflation target: firm goal, not a range
02:24 What the Treasury market is pricing in
03:00 The part that made Nik hit pause: Warsh takes credit for the sell-off
04:50 Fifteen years of Fed watching and the end of forward guidance
05:30 Why the 2008 playbook is being retired
08:00 Rates lead the Fed: Warsh says they'll watch the Treasury market
23:00 Korea's crash, leveraged ETFs, and the blame game
24:00 Samsung, SK Hynix, and the dollar offering pulling capital
25:00 Why the AI trade still isn't over
25:40 TBL liquidity and a month of negative liquidity
26:39 Two-year vs. ten-year: yields making new highs
29:28 The dollar sells off, and why that's good news
31:26 The bullish takeaway from the curve steepening
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
🎙 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.
🐦 Follow TBL on X: /thebitcoinlayer
Nik Bhatia's Twitter: /timevalueofbtc
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB
🚨 CHECK OUT TBL PULSE: research.thebitcoinlayer.com
In this Global Macro Update, Nik covers today's FOMC decision and Kevin Warsh's press conference, where the new Fed chair reaffirmed the 2% inflation target as a firm goal and made clear he is steering the Fed away from forward guidance. Nik explains why Warsh took credit for the recent rise in Treasury yields, calling it healthy price discovery, and why Warsh now says the Fed will look to the Treasury market for signal rather than telling markets what it will do. He also covers the yield curve steepening on the day, the Nasdaq correction and Korea's stock market crash, and why he thinks Treasury yields have left their four-year anchor for good.
Get Nik's weekly bitcoin and macro research: thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe
The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by SOUND HSA. A Health Savings Account is the most tax-advantaged account in the US tax code: contributions are tax-deductible, growth is tax-free, and withdrawals for qualified healthcare expenses are tax-free too. But most people leave their HSA sitting in cash, losing purchasing power year after year. SOUND HSA lets you hold real bitcoin inside your HSA instead. Not an ETF, not a paper claim, but real bitcoin secured in multi-institutional, multi-signature cold storage. Use code TBL to waive the fifty-dollar setup fee. Transfer an existing HSA or open a new one today: soundhsa.com
The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Club Orange. One of the best parts of bitcoin is the people, and some of the strongest friendships and opportunities come from meeting other bitcoiners. Club Orange makes that easy. Whether you're at home or traveling for a conference, you can find local bitcoiners, discover the next meetup, and locate merchants that accept bitcoin, all in one app. Every city has an incredible bitcoin community; you just need a way to find it. Learn more at cluborange.org/thebitcoinlayer, or download Club Orange on the App Store or Google Play. When you join, send Nik a DM.
Timestamps:
00:00 FOMC holds, and the Warsh press conference that moved markets
00:35 Warsh on the 2% inflation target: firm goal, not a range
02:24 What the Treasury market is pricing in
03:00 The part that made Nik hit pause: Warsh takes credit for the sell-off
04:50 Fifteen years of Fed watching and the end of forward guidance
05:30 Why the 2008 playbook is being retired
08:00 Rates lead the Fed: Warsh says they'll watch the Treasury market
23:00 Korea's crash, leveraged ETFs, and the blame game
24:00 Samsung, SK Hynix, and the dollar offering pulling capital
25:00 Why the AI trade still isn't over
25:40 TBL liquidity and a month of negative liquidity
26:39 Two-year vs. ten-year: yields making new highs
29:28 The dollar sells off, and why that's good news
31:26 The bullish takeaway from the curve steepening
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
🎙 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.
🐦 Follow TBL on X: /thebitcoinlayer
Nik Bhatia's Twitter: /timevalueofbtc
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB
