Uploaded November 2025 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
In this episode, Nik breaks down Bitcoin’s drop below $100,000, why key trend lines matter, and how TBL Liquidity flipped negative ahead of the move. He covers the failed $108,000 level, the critical support zones near $96.000 and $87,000, the rise in bond volatility, and tightness in the repo market as SOFR hits the ceiling. Nik also explains how the government reopening and TGA spend down may affect reserves, liquidity, and Bitcoin’s path from here.
📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
🔓 The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial services. Unchained empowers you to take full control of your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys, and benefit from a Bitcoin security partner. Purchase Bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk. Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys. Don’t pay more taxes than you have to. Talk to us today.
Visit unchained.com/tbl and use the code TBL10 for a 10% credit towards your first year's account fees.
📡 Blockstream delivers cutting-edge Bitcoin infrastructure. Discover the top-rated Blockstream Jade hardware wallet for secure offline storage, and explore the Blockstream Satellite for a seamless offline Bitcoin node experience — all available at the Blockstream Store. Visit: store.blockstream.com/discount/TBL for 10% off entire order.
🏡 Arch Lending is the Bitcoin-native solution for unlocking liquidity without selling your Bitcoin. Secure a loan using your Bitcoin as collateral, with zero rehypothecation and institutional-grade custody. Whether you're buying a home or investing in your business, Arch Lending helps you access capital while staying long BTC. Learn more at: archlending.com
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe
🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.
📱 Follow TBL on X: twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer
📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial
🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch
⛓️ ₿lock Height 923634
⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg
Nik Bhatia's Twitter: twitter.com/timevalueofbtc
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB
❗ The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Chapters:
00:00 Is the Bitcoin Bull Market Over?
00:13 Breaking Down Bitcoin Price Trends
00:59 Key Support Levels: Orange and Green Trend Lines
03:13 The Importance of the 108,000 Level
03:49 Significance of the Green Trend Line
04:51 Bull Market at Risk? Critical Support Discussion
05:41 Sponsor Messages: Inheritance & Lending
06:54 Bullish Divergence Nullified: Recent Signals
07:32 Oversold? RSI and Market Bottom Outlook
08:04 Proprietary TBL Liquidity Indicator Explained
09:45 Bitcoin Price Action and Liquidity Momentum
10:16 Bond Volatility and Market Effects
10:47 Repo Market Tightness and Impact
12:00 Interest Rate Corridor and Repo Updates
13:43 Government Shutdown, TGA, and Market Outlook
14:33 Thanksgiving Week & Final Thoughts
In this episode, Nik breaks down Bitcoin’s drop below $100,000, why key trend lines matter, and how TBL Liquidity flipped negative ahead of the move. He covers the failed $108,000 level, the critical support zones near $96.000 and $87,000, the rise in bond volatility, and tightness in the repo market as SOFR hits the ceiling. Nik also explains how the government reopening and TGA spend down may affect reserves, liquidity, and Bitcoin’s path from here.
📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
🔓 The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial services. Unchained empowers you to take full control of your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys, and benefit from a Bitcoin security partner. Purchase Bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk. Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys. Don’t pay more taxes than you have to. Talk to us today.
Visit unchained.com/tbl and use the code TBL10 for a 10% credit towards your first year's account fees.
📡 Blockstream delivers cutting-edge Bitcoin infrastructure. Discover the top-rated Blockstream Jade hardware wallet for secure offline storage, and explore the Blockstream Satellite for a seamless offline Bitcoin node experience — all available at the Blockstream Store. Visit: store.blockstream.com/discount/TBL for 10% off entire order.
🏡 Arch Lending is the Bitcoin-native solution for unlocking liquidity without selling your Bitcoin. Secure a loan using your Bitcoin as collateral, with zero rehypothecation and institutional-grade custody. Whether you're buying a home or investing in your business, Arch Lending helps you access capital while staying long BTC. Learn more at: archlending.com
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe
🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.
📱 Follow TBL on X: twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer
📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial
🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch
⛓️ ₿lock Height 923634
⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg
Nik Bhatia's Twitter: twitter.com/timevalueofbtc
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB
❗ The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Chapters:
00:00 Is the Bitcoin Bull Market Over?
00:13 Breaking Down Bitcoin Price Trends
00:59 Key Support Levels: Orange and Green Trend Lines
03:13 The Importance of the 108,000 Level
03:49 Significance of the Green Trend Line
04:51 Bull Market at Risk? Critical Support Discussion
05:41 Sponsor Messages: Inheritance & Lending
06:54 Bullish Divergence Nullified: Recent Signals
07:32 Oversold? RSI and Market Bottom Outlook
08:04 Proprietary TBL Liquidity Indicator Explained
09:45 Bitcoin Price Action and Liquidity Momentum
10:16 Bond Volatility and Market Effects
10:47 Repo Market Tightness and Impact
12:00 Interest Rate Corridor and Repo Updates
13:43 Government Shutdown, TGA, and Market Outlook
14:33 Thanksgiving Week & Final Thoughts
