Uploaded January 2024 | Updated September 2026, 1 week ago
Every discussion of climate change seems to come with talk about the 1.5 degree target. But with the pace of climate change and the inaction of political leaders it seems inevitable that we will blow through this crucial target and into dangerous territory.
So, is it time to give up on 1.5C ?
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Contents
00:00 - Intro
01:01 - 1.5 aint SMART
02:19 - What does 1.5 actually mean?
03:13 - How do we know?
04:44 - Can we do it?
05:31 - What's at stake
07:00 - 1.5 by when?
08:04 - Shall we give up on 1.5?
09:17 - 1.5 is slipping out of reach
#ClimateChange #ClimateAction
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Thanks to my Patreon subscribers, including my Patreon Saints:
Steven Cowling, Eliot Bryant, Baerbel Winkler, Patrick Hillberg, Michael Unterweger, James Harley Gorrell & Lucien Mansell.
Join them here: patreon.com/dr_gilbz
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Additional footage:
UNFCCC
Copernicus Climate Change Service
Sky News
Channel 5 News
Carbon Brief
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References & resources
Two great videos on this topic:
youtube.com/watch?v=pshSE78rmvo&ab_channel=ClimateAdam
youtube.com/watch?v=hTtR_WaLHnY&ab_channel=HeatGeek
Scientific literature:
Betts et al. (2023) nature.com/articles/d41586-023-03775-z
Forster et all. (2023) essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/2295/2023
IPCC SR1.5 (2019) https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/
Lamboll et al (2023) nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01848-5
Sanderson (2023) nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01846-7
UNEP EGR (2023) unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2023
General articles:
interactive.carbonbrief.org/one-point-five-pathways/index.html
interactive.carbonbrief.org/impacts-climate-change-one-point-five-degrees-two-degrees
https://www.carbonbrieforg/state-of-the-climate-2023-smashes-records-for-surface-temperature-and-ocean-heat/
https://10insightsclimate.science/year-2023/1-overshooting-fast-becoming-inevitable
bbc.com/future/article/20231130-climate-crisis-the-15c-global-warming-threshold-explained
carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-do-scientists-measure-global-temperature
bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-66857354
Every discussion of climate change seems to come with talk about the 1.5 degree target. But with the pace of climate change and the inaction of political leaders it seems inevitable that we will blow through this crucial target and into dangerous territory.
So, is it time to give up on 1.5C ?
##################################################
Contents
00:00 - Intro
01:01 - 1.5 aint SMART
02:19 - What does 1.5 actually mean?
03:13 - How do we know?
04:44 - Can we do it?
05:31 - What's at stake
07:00 - 1.5 by when?
08:04 - Shall we give up on 1.5?
09:17 - 1.5 is slipping out of reach
#ClimateChange #ClimateAction
##################################################
Thanks to my Patreon subscribers, including my Patreon Saints:
Steven Cowling, Eliot Bryant, Baerbel Winkler, Patrick Hillberg, Michael Unterweger, James Harley Gorrell & Lucien Mansell.
Join them here: patreon.com/dr_gilbz
##################################################
Additional footage:
UNFCCC
Copernicus Climate Change Service
Sky News
Channel 5 News
Carbon Brief
##################################################
References & resources
Two great videos on this topic:
youtube.com/watch?v=pshSE78rmvo&ab_channel=ClimateAdam
youtube.com/watch?v=hTtR_WaLHnY&ab_channel=HeatGeek
Scientific literature:
Betts et al. (2023) nature.com/articles/d41586-023-03775-z
Forster et all. (2023) essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/2295/2023
IPCC SR1.5 (2019) https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/
Lamboll et al (2023) nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01848-5
Sanderson (2023) nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01846-7
UNEP EGR (2023) unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2023
General articles:
interactive.carbonbrief.org/one-point-five-pathways/index.html
interactive.carbonbrief.org/impacts-climate-change-one-point-five-degrees-two-degrees
https://www.carbonbrieforg/state-of-the-climate-2023-smashes-records-for-surface-temperature-and-ocean-heat/
https://10insightsclimate.science/year-2023/1-overshooting-fast-becoming-inevitable
bbc.com/future/article/20231130-climate-crisis-the-15c-global-warming-threshold-explained
carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-do-scientists-measure-global-temperature
bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-66857354









![Heres what you need to know about climate change.
To celebrate hitting 10k subs (thank you!) I have put together a video showing the ten biggest themes to watch out for in climate science. Watch out for these!
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Contents
00:00 – Intro
00:45 – Oceans
03:05 – Climate Models
06:15 – Uncertainty
07:57 – Clouds
09:35 – Climate Sensitivity
11:45 – Commitments
15:00 – Tipping Points
16:50 – False Solutions
20:30 – Bad Actors
23:45 – Activism
#ClimateChange #Science
##################################################
Thanks to my Patreon subscribers, including my Patreon Saints:
Steven Cowling, Eliot Bryant, Baerbel Winkler, Patrick Hillberg, Michael Unterweger, James Harley Gorrell & Lucien Mansell.
Join them here: https://www.patreon.com/dr_gilbz/
##################################################
REFERENCES / READING
*Oceans/sea ice*
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-68921215
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-66387537 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/15/oceans-have-been-absorbing-the-worlds-extra-heat-but-theres-a-huge-payback
https://environments.aq/publications/the-warming-of-the-southern-ocean-and-its-significance/
Cai et al. (2023) Science Bulletin 68 (9) 946-960
Diamond et al. (2024) GRL 51 (10) e2024GL109265
Gilbert & Holmes (2024) Weather 79 (2) 46-51
Purich & Doddridge (2023) Commun Earth Environ 4, 314
Shi et al. (2024) Nature Comms 15 (174)
https://phys.org/news/2022-05-deep-ocean-climate.html
Messias & Mercier (2022) Commun Earth Environ 3, 118
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content
https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/arctic-sea-ice/
*Climate models*
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-models-projected-global-warming/
https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work/
Hausfather et al. (2020) GRL 47 (1)
https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/climate-model-projections-compared-to-observations/
*Uncertainty *
https://www.visionlearning.com/en/library/Process-of-Science/49/Uncertainty-Error-and-Confidence/157
*Clouds*
Ceppi et al (2021) PNAS 118 (30) e2026290118
https://e360.yale.edu/features/why-clouds-are-the-key-to-new-troubling-projections-on-warming
https://cordis.europa.eu/article/id/442741-the-role-that-clouds-play-in-climate-change
*ECS*
Sherwood et al (2020) R. Geophys. 58 (4) e2019RG000678
Sherwood & Forest (2024) ACP 24 (4) 2679–2686
IPCC AR6 WG1
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-020-00658-0
https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-scientists-estimate-climate-sensitivity/
Charney et al (1979) National Academies report
https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2023/01/15/some-more-about-hansen-et-al/
https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/09/why-correlations-of-co2-and-temperature-over-ice-age-cycles-dont-define-climate-sensitivity/
https://skepticalscience.com/argument.php?p=2&t=386&&a=115
https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2023/01/11/hansens-10c/
*Committed warming/SLR *
Matthews & Weaver (2010) Nature Geosci. 3, 142–143
Matthews & Caldeira (2008) GRL 35 (4)
Matthews (2023) Front. Sci. 14
Matthews & Solomon (2013) Science 340 ( 6131), 438-439
Klose et al. (2024) Cryosphere [preprint]
https://climateanalytics.org/publications/committed-sea-level-rise-under-the-paris-agreement-and-the-legacy-of-delayed-mitigation-action
Palmer & Weeks (2024) Earths Fut. 12 (2) e2023EF004403
Box et al. (2022) Nature Climate Change 12, 808–813
Mengel et al. (2018) Nature Comms 9 (601)
https://theconversation.com/ipcc-climate-report-profound-changes-are-underway-in-earths-oceans-and-ice-a-lead-author-explains-what-the-warnings-mean-165588
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3Gol-EK1uE
*Tipping points*
Carbon Brief https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-nine-tipping-points-that-could-be-triggered-by-climate-change/
https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2021/11/11/how-close-are-we-to-climate-tipping-points/
Armstrong McKay et al. (2022) Science 377 (6611)
Boers & Rypdal (2022) PNAS 118 (21) e2024192118
Pattyn et al. (2018) Nature Climate Change 8, 1053–1061
*False Solutions *
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-08-11/the-fictitious-world-of-carbon-neutral-fossil-fuel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WcQ4BzHGaS8
https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20231110-the-tough-truth-behind-corporate-net-zero-sustainability-targets
*Bad actors *
https://skepticalscience.com/history-FLICC-5-techniques-science-denial.html
https://counterhate.com/research/new-climate-denial/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3XSG2Dw2mL8
* Activism *
https://granthaminstitute.com/2019/10/07/put-your-fate-in-your-hands-rebelling-against-extinction-gave-me-hope-for-the-future/
https://www.ucl.ac.uk/climate-action-unit/climate-action
https://voteclimate.uk/
https://tedxlondon.com/podcast/climate-curious-why-theres-much-more-to-climate-action-than-reducing-your-carbon-footprint/ Heres what you need to know about climate change.](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/gi4MonDvpTc/mqdefault.jpg)
