Uploaded May 2020 | Updated September 2026, 2 hours ago
Global systems scientist David Korowicz shares his thinking on how to make plans for an uncertain future. He discusses preparedness and risk in terms of likelihood and impact, and related ideas, such as that of a probability map. Wissner also inquires with Korowicz on the healthcare crisis, economic crisis, the "shouting fire in a crowded theater" analogy, and various claims of facts being hidden from the public.
Note: The video speed can be changes up to 2x speed, so feel free to start at 2x speed and back down to 1.75x or 1.5x :-)
If you appreciate content like this, please 1. subscribe, 2. sign up for notifications, 3. comment, 4. like, and 5. share :-)
Terms discussed include: binary thinking, probabilities, likelihood, impact, common ground, contingencies, preparedness, social polarization, truth, error correction, science, Galileo, heliocentrism, Earth-centric, epicycles, stickiness of old views, uncertainty, economic incentives, healthcare, medical care, conspiracy, tragedy of the commons, theater bomb, risk analysis, group conforming, likelihood, context, logic, liar, lie, Malthus, Paul Ehrlich, Population Bomb, ingenuity, delineate, decision making, probability distribution, asteroid, lifetime, illness, fire insurance, insurance, probability distribution, climate change, global warming, stresses, water crisis, credit crisis, range, structural failure, collapse, models, predict, likelihood and impact, crossover, risk profile, risk map, going wrong, downside risk, upside risk, public discussion of risk, tribalization, self-others, contingency preparedness, consensus, consensus risk map, society, common ground,
If you would like to provide time stamps, please post them into the comments, and they will be added to this description :-)
Previous talks by Korowicz:
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLu9390d_J5Mf6XR0aJk2w4TafyFLJiuTQ
About David Korowicz
David is working on understanding large-scale systemic risk and supporting policy and social responses. Up until February 2020, he was director of Risk and Response at the Geneva Global Initiative, where his work was aimed at encouraging and supporting large-scale preparedness and contingency planning for intensifying large-scale systemic risks.
He is a systems thinker, physicist and human systems ecologist, interested in the challenges to our societies arising from the transformation of risk. This fits into his broader interests into the evolution, stability, and collapse of complex societies. He is an advocate for a re-appraisal of risk and the need for societal resilience, instability preparedness, and catastrophic shock planning.
He argues we are on the cusp of an inevitable major societal transformations that will largely outrun our capacity to manage or control. The implications will be prolonged and severe. We can choose to face such consequences head-on, and work to support what’s best in our human story in times that threaten to expose the worst. Understanding, anticipation and preparedness is part of this.
David has been a pioneer in drawing upon ideas from fields such as ecology, complexity and systems science to shed light on emergent risks, vulnerabilities and uncertainties. He has written influential studies on the the financial and socio-economic implications of a peak in global oil production; the propagation of financial and monetary shocks through trade networks and critical infrastructures; pandemic shocks and the limits to growth. Currently, he is developing a Globally Integrated Systemic Risk framework.
Korowicz has been an invited contributor on the socio-economic implications of a severe pandemic for USAID/ US Pacific Fleet ASEAN preparedness, and to the pandemic working group of the Global Agenda Council on Complexity & Risk (World Economic Forum); presented on contingency planning for large-scale socio-economic stress and shocks; and taught a masters course Human Systems Ecology & Systemic Risk at Masaryk University in the Czech Republic. David was a ministerial appointment to the council of Comhar, Ireland’s sustainable development commission. He spent a number of years on the executive committee of Feasta, The Foundation for the Economics of Sustainability - a think-tank. David also made a significant contribution to the Foresight Analysis Nexus.
korowiczhumansystems.com
About Aaron Wissner
Aaron Wayne Wissner is a community educator; founder of Local Future, a 501(c)(3) tax-exempt educational non-profit; and a public school teacher of 25+ years. His mission is to help people to have relevant facts so they can survive and thrive, no matter what the future holds.
facebook.com/aaron.wissner.9
youtube.com/user/newculture
lifeishnowish.blogspot.com
***
Published 202005092200 UTC Aaron Wayne Wissner
Global systems scientist David Korowicz shares his thinking on how to make plans for an uncertain future. He discusses preparedness and risk in terms of likelihood and impact, and related ideas, such as that of a probability map. Wissner also inquires with Korowicz on the healthcare crisis, economic crisis, the "shouting fire in a crowded theater" analogy, and various claims of facts being hidden from the public.
Note: The video speed can be changes up to 2x speed, so feel free to start at 2x speed and back down to 1.75x or 1.5x :-)
If you appreciate content like this, please 1. subscribe, 2. sign up for notifications, 3. comment, 4. like, and 5. share :-)
Terms discussed include: binary thinking, probabilities, likelihood, impact, common ground, contingencies, preparedness, social polarization, truth, error correction, science, Galileo, heliocentrism, Earth-centric, epicycles, stickiness of old views, uncertainty, economic incentives, healthcare, medical care, conspiracy, tragedy of the commons, theater bomb, risk analysis, group conforming, likelihood, context, logic, liar, lie, Malthus, Paul Ehrlich, Population Bomb, ingenuity, delineate, decision making, probability distribution, asteroid, lifetime, illness, fire insurance, insurance, probability distribution, climate change, global warming, stresses, water crisis, credit crisis, range, structural failure, collapse, models, predict, likelihood and impact, crossover, risk profile, risk map, going wrong, downside risk, upside risk, public discussion of risk, tribalization, self-others, contingency preparedness, consensus, consensus risk map, society, common ground,
If you would like to provide time stamps, please post them into the comments, and they will be added to this description :-)
Previous talks by Korowicz:
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLu9390d_J5Mf6XR0aJk2w4TafyFLJiuTQ
About David Korowicz
David is working on understanding large-scale systemic risk and supporting policy and social responses. Up until February 2020, he was director of Risk and Response at the Geneva Global Initiative, where his work was aimed at encouraging and supporting large-scale preparedness and contingency planning for intensifying large-scale systemic risks.
He is a systems thinker, physicist and human systems ecologist, interested in the challenges to our societies arising from the transformation of risk. This fits into his broader interests into the evolution, stability, and collapse of complex societies. He is an advocate for a re-appraisal of risk and the need for societal resilience, instability preparedness, and catastrophic shock planning.
He argues we are on the cusp of an inevitable major societal transformations that will largely outrun our capacity to manage or control. The implications will be prolonged and severe. We can choose to face such consequences head-on, and work to support what’s best in our human story in times that threaten to expose the worst. Understanding, anticipation and preparedness is part of this.
David has been a pioneer in drawing upon ideas from fields such as ecology, complexity and systems science to shed light on emergent risks, vulnerabilities and uncertainties. He has written influential studies on the the financial and socio-economic implications of a peak in global oil production; the propagation of financial and monetary shocks through trade networks and critical infrastructures; pandemic shocks and the limits to growth. Currently, he is developing a Globally Integrated Systemic Risk framework.
Korowicz has been an invited contributor on the socio-economic implications of a severe pandemic for USAID/ US Pacific Fleet ASEAN preparedness, and to the pandemic working group of the Global Agenda Council on Complexity & Risk (World Economic Forum); presented on contingency planning for large-scale socio-economic stress and shocks; and taught a masters course Human Systems Ecology & Systemic Risk at Masaryk University in the Czech Republic. David was a ministerial appointment to the council of Comhar, Ireland’s sustainable development commission. He spent a number of years on the executive committee of Feasta, The Foundation for the Economics of Sustainability - a think-tank. David also made a significant contribution to the Foresight Analysis Nexus.
korowiczhumansystems.com
About Aaron Wissner
Aaron Wayne Wissner is a community educator; founder of Local Future, a 501(c)(3) tax-exempt educational non-profit; and a public school teacher of 25+ years. His mission is to help people to have relevant facts so they can survive and thrive, no matter what the future holds.
facebook.com/aaron.wissner.9
youtube.com/user/newculture
lifeishnowish.blogspot.com
***
Published 202005092200 UTC Aaron Wayne Wissner
