Uploaded January 2019 | Updated September 2026, 1 week ago
CORRECTION: at 9:53 I said a 100 degree rise in CO2. Of course I meant 100 ppm (parts per million).
SOURCES:
Tony Heller’s first round video at: youtube.com/watch?v=uE-zY0roNfw&t=378s
My first round response is here:
youtube.com/watch?v=WLjkLPnIPPw&t=237s
Tony Heller’s second round video at:
youtube.com/watch?v=XjdT-NdSoWM&t=356s
I refer to the above three videos, and play clips from them, throughout this video, and explain when I am doing so.
1:17 --http://www.indiana.edu/~geol105/images/gaia_chapter_4/milankovitch.htm
1:59 -- “The ice-core record: climate sensitivity and future greenhouse warming” – C. Lorius et al., Nature 1990
5:48 – “Climate Change – the objections” and “Climate change – Gore vs. Durkin.”
7:14 -- “Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation” -- Jeremy D. Shakun, Nature 2012
7:17 – In case anyone didn’t get it, I made up the “fact” that scientists had retracted their claims abou the Shakun paper in order to show how easy it is to make a claim without citing a source. Tony needs to cite the source for his claim, and then everyone can fact-check it.
9:05 – “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past” – The Independent, 20 March 2000
12:23 – 13:24
“Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide: A significant revision of the methane radiative forcing” – Etminan at al., Geophysical Research Letters, 2016
ghgprotocol.org/sites/default/files/ghgp/Global-Warming-Potential-Values%20%28Feb%2016%202016%29_1.pdf
http://www.indiana.edu/~geol105/1425chap4.htm
19:55 -- esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/insitu
13:46 -- “Investigations of Milankovitch and the quaternary curve of effective solar radiation” – W. Jardetsky, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, October 1961
14:02 – “On the structure and origin of major glaciation cycles” – Imbrie et al.
CORRECTION: at 9:53 I said a 100 degree rise in CO2. Of course I meant 100 ppm (parts per million).
SOURCES:
Tony Heller’s first round video at: youtube.com/watch?v=uE-zY0roNfw&t=378s
My first round response is here:
youtube.com/watch?v=WLjkLPnIPPw&t=237s
Tony Heller’s second round video at:
youtube.com/watch?v=XjdT-NdSoWM&t=356s
I refer to the above three videos, and play clips from them, throughout this video, and explain when I am doing so.
1:17 --http://www.indiana.edu/~geol105/images/gaia_chapter_4/milankovitch.htm
1:59 -- “The ice-core record: climate sensitivity and future greenhouse warming” – C. Lorius et al., Nature 1990
5:48 – “Climate Change – the objections” and “Climate change – Gore vs. Durkin.”
7:14 -- “Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation” -- Jeremy D. Shakun, Nature 2012
7:17 – In case anyone didn’t get it, I made up the “fact” that scientists had retracted their claims abou the Shakun paper in order to show how easy it is to make a claim without citing a source. Tony needs to cite the source for his claim, and then everyone can fact-check it.
9:05 – “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past” – The Independent, 20 March 2000
12:23 – 13:24
“Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide: A significant revision of the methane radiative forcing” – Etminan at al., Geophysical Research Letters, 2016
ghgprotocol.org/sites/default/files/ghgp/Global-Warming-Potential-Values%20%28Feb%2016%202016%29_1.pdf
http://www.indiana.edu/~geol105/1425chap4.htm
19:55 -- esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/insitu
13:46 -- “Investigations of Milankovitch and the quaternary curve of effective solar radiation” – W. Jardetsky, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, October 1961
14:02 – “On the structure and origin of major glaciation cycles” – Imbrie et al.

![Are we headed for a Grand Solar Minimum?
CORRECTIONS:
At 0:59 I should have said luminosity instead of luminescence.
At 3:00 I read the range of estimates of past GSM dips from 0.08% to 0.25%. I should have said most estimates, because Anet et als highest estimate was 0.4%
SOURCES:
00:10 - The persistence of solar activity indicators and the descent of the Sun into Maunder Minimum conditions, Lockwood et al., GRL 2011
0:14 - Could a future Grand dolar minimum like the Maunder Minimum stop global warming? Meehl et al., 2013
0:16 - Regional Climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum Ineson et al, Nature Communications
0:41 - https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/03/18/approaching-grand-solar-minimum-could-cause-global-cooling/
0:45 - Prediction of solar activity from solar background magnetic field variations in cycles 21 - 23 Shepherd at al., Tha Astrophysical Journal (Nov 2014)
0:57 - Faint Young Sun paradox: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Illustration-of-the-Faint-Young-Sun-Paradox_fig1_262452752
1:27 - https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-PMOD-TSI-composite-shows-peak-to-peak-TSI-variability-of-01-in-each-of-the-three_fig1_304018426
2:58 On the effect of a new grand minimum of solar activity
on the future climate on Earth Feulner and Rahmstorf , 2010
Could a future “Grand Solar Minimum” like the Maunder Minimum stop global warming? Meehl et al. , 2013
The impact of a future solar minimum on climate change projections
in the Northern Hemisphere Chiodo et al., Environmental Research Letters (2016)
What influence will future solar activity changes over the 21st century have on projected global near-surface temperature changes? Jones et al. 2012 (incorrectly dates as 2011 in the video)
Solar change and climate: an update in the light
of the current exceptional solar minimum Lockwood et al. , 2009;
Prediction of solar activity for the next 500 years Steinhilber and Beer , 2013
Impact of a potential 21st century “grand solar minimum” on surface
temperatures and stratospheric ozone Anet, J. G., et al. Geophys. Res. Lett (2013),
earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/7122/chilly-temperatures-during-the-maunder-minimum based on Shindell 2001
4:26 Solar Forcing of Regional Climate Change During the Maunder Minimum - Shindel at al., Science 2001
6:22 The impact of a future solar minimum on climate change projections
in the Northern Hemisphere Chiodo et al., Environmental Research Letters (2016)
7:06 https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2015/07/11/Earth-heading-for-mini-ice-age-in-just-15-years-scientists-say/2751436649025/
7:43 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/11733369/Earth-heading-for-mini-ice-age-within-15-years.html#:~:text=The%20earth%20is%2015%20years,produces%20%22unprecedentedly%20accurate%20predictions%22.
7:50 - independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/mini-ice-age-coming-in-next-fifteen-years-new-model-of-the-suns-cycle-shows-10382400
8:21 https://nam2015.org/press-releases/64-irregular-heartbeat-of-the-sun-driven-by-double-dynamo
8:29 Heartbeat of the Sun from Principal Component Analysis and prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale Zharkova, Scientific Reports (Open access)
10:01 Scientists dispute ice age warnings USA Today - https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/07/16/scientists-dispute-ice-age-warnings/30257409/
11:23 Int Business Times https://www.ibtimes.com/scientist-warns-mini-ice-age-sun-hibernates-during-solar-minimum-2915068#:~:text=An%20expert%20warned%20that%20Earth,that%20occurs%20every%2011%20years.
11:42 www.express.co.uk/news/science/1237178/weather-warning-ice-age-earth-sun-hibernates-solar-minimum-long-range-forecast headline correction
11:52 www.thesun.co.uk/tech/10864950/mini-ice-age-earth-weather/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebarweb
12:12 Zharkova video - www.youtube.com/watch?v=JyyuouPSNEA 2
13:09 Reconstruction of solar irradiance since the Maunder Minimum Lean et al., GPL (2000)
14:14 https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/11/why-536-was-worst-year-be-alive
14:48 https://www.thenational.ae/world/gcc/flash-floods-strike-oman-as-temperatures-sink-below-zero-1.964904
15:23 https://www.youtube.com/user/MyanmarLiving
16:57 - www.facebook.com/pg/Inventor-Lee-Wheelbarger-424739434370221/posts/?ref=page_internal 1
21:39 metro.co.uk/2018/11/16/nasa-slowdown-8146529
22:02 - https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/09/27/the-chill-of-solar-minimum/
23:05 https://climatefeedback.org/we-are-not-heading-towards-a-mini-ice-age-contrary-to-claims-in-some-media/
23:39 www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150709092955
[YouTube says the description is now too long. Please google other sources from titles shown on the screen - sorry.] Are we headed for a Grand Solar Minimum?](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/wjgCaF9BGUo/mqdefault.jpg)




