Uploaded June 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
Global Warming Acceleration Can Increase Global Temperature to 2C or even 2.5C by 2035: New Research
Global average temperatures are roughly 1.5 C above so-called pre-industrial temperatures at the moment.
According to this new research, we will increase by an additional 0.5 C to 1.0 C over the next decade. This would mean global average temperatures of roughly 2.0 C to 2.5 C above pre-industrial by about 2035 or so.
This new research uses microwave sounding data from satellites to measure TLT - Temperature in the Lower Tropopause. The data is from three different groups, namely NOAA, UAH (University of Alabama at Huntsville) and RSS (Remote Sensing Systems), and is also incorporated into the European Reanalysis work (ERA5 Reanalysis).
We are talking about data here, and not the Global Climate Models used extensively by the UN's IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).
"With the adjusted TLT, statistically significant warming trends of up to 0.482 ± 0.113°C decade⁻¹ are found from 2015 onward across all satellite and reanalysis datasets examined in this study, representing an increase of approximately four to five times relative to the pre-2015 period."
It is important to stress that after the recent and powerful El Nino jacked up global temperatures in 2023 and 2024, the temperatures did not settle back. If the forecasted Super El Nino forecasted for later this year into next year occurs, then we are in for a wild ride.
This level of acceleration in global warming in this new research, if it pans out, is much higher than any computer models predict, and even exceeds estimates by James Hansen.
Time will tell. Buckle your seatbelts...
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
GoFundMe: gofundme.com/f/help-paul-continue-his-climate-emergency-research
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
Research and Links:
My Facebook post on this paper: facebook.com/share/p/18hu2k31At
Jan Umsonst Facebook post on this paper: facebook.com/share/p/18oNvNA3gQ
Research Square Preprint Article:
researchsquare.com/article/rs-9283491/v1?fbclid=IwY2xjawSMCwJleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETFUMGc0dFgwZHVGUmF4cmZPc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHv8LUk5Xe91npZ-UBYw9jnFcZzn7GLhK16btkiON-3ps_ktzsiE8HFZ-jGl9_aem_f8ucMez5kr1HysNVUDV3Pw
Direct Link to paper on Research Square: assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9283491/v1/31f020ea-96a4-430c-8c52-ec96f1a4bb4d.pdf?c=1775640338
Title: Global warming acceleration in satellite observed lower-tropospheric temperature
Abstract
We analyze accelerated global warming over 1981–2025 using satellite-derived lower-tropospheric
temperature (TLT) data and examine its relationship to the pronounced warming observed during 2023–2024. To reduce uncertainty and improve the robustness of acceleration detection, an adjusted TLT record is constructed by removing ENSO- and aerosol-related variability. This adjustment reduces the magnitude of TLT annual variability by nearly 50%, which greatly increases the robustness and reliability of acceleration detection. We therefore recommend using the ENSO–aerosol-adjusted TLT for long-term trend and acceleration analyses. With the adjusted TLT, statistically significant warming trends of up to 0.482 ± 0.113°C decade⁻¹ are found from 2015 onward across all satellite and reanalysis datasets examined in this study, representing an increase of approximately four to five times relative to the pre-2015 period. This large trend, however, is only a conservative estimate. At the upper end, statistically significant acceleration rates of up to 0.48 ± 0.12°C decade⁻² are inferred near 2024, indicating that the recent temperature jumps are part of an ongoing acceleration amplified by the El Niño event. Projections based on the accelerated trend estimates suggest the potential for an additional 0.5–1.0°C of warming within the next decade.
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
GoFundMe: gofundme.com/f/help-paul-continue-his-climate-emergency-research
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
Global Warming Acceleration Can Increase Global Temperature to 2C or even 2.5C by 2035: New Research
Global average temperatures are roughly 1.5 C above so-called pre-industrial temperatures at the moment.
According to this new research, we will increase by an additional 0.5 C to 1.0 C over the next decade. This would mean global average temperatures of roughly 2.0 C to 2.5 C above pre-industrial by about 2035 or so.
This new research uses microwave sounding data from satellites to measure TLT - Temperature in the Lower Tropopause. The data is from three different groups, namely NOAA, UAH (University of Alabama at Huntsville) and RSS (Remote Sensing Systems), and is also incorporated into the European Reanalysis work (ERA5 Reanalysis).
We are talking about data here, and not the Global Climate Models used extensively by the UN's IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).
"With the adjusted TLT, statistically significant warming trends of up to 0.482 ± 0.113°C decade⁻¹ are found from 2015 onward across all satellite and reanalysis datasets examined in this study, representing an increase of approximately four to five times relative to the pre-2015 period."
It is important to stress that after the recent and powerful El Nino jacked up global temperatures in 2023 and 2024, the temperatures did not settle back. If the forecasted Super El Nino forecasted for later this year into next year occurs, then we are in for a wild ride.
This level of acceleration in global warming in this new research, if it pans out, is much higher than any computer models predict, and even exceeds estimates by James Hansen.
Time will tell. Buckle your seatbelts...
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
GoFundMe: gofundme.com/f/help-paul-continue-his-climate-emergency-research
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
Research and Links:
My Facebook post on this paper: facebook.com/share/p/18hu2k31At
Jan Umsonst Facebook post on this paper: facebook.com/share/p/18oNvNA3gQ
Research Square Preprint Article:
researchsquare.com/article/rs-9283491/v1?fbclid=IwY2xjawSMCwJleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETFUMGc0dFgwZHVGUmF4cmZPc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHv8LUk5Xe91npZ-UBYw9jnFcZzn7GLhK16btkiON-3ps_ktzsiE8HFZ-jGl9_aem_f8ucMez5kr1HysNVUDV3Pw
Direct Link to paper on Research Square: assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9283491/v1/31f020ea-96a4-430c-8c52-ec96f1a4bb4d.pdf?c=1775640338
Title: Global warming acceleration in satellite observed lower-tropospheric temperature
Abstract
We analyze accelerated global warming over 1981–2025 using satellite-derived lower-tropospheric
temperature (TLT) data and examine its relationship to the pronounced warming observed during 2023–2024. To reduce uncertainty and improve the robustness of acceleration detection, an adjusted TLT record is constructed by removing ENSO- and aerosol-related variability. This adjustment reduces the magnitude of TLT annual variability by nearly 50%, which greatly increases the robustness and reliability of acceleration detection. We therefore recommend using the ENSO–aerosol-adjusted TLT for long-term trend and acceleration analyses. With the adjusted TLT, statistically significant warming trends of up to 0.482 ± 0.113°C decade⁻¹ are found from 2015 onward across all satellite and reanalysis datasets examined in this study, representing an increase of approximately four to five times relative to the pre-2015 period. This large trend, however, is only a conservative estimate. At the upper end, statistically significant acceleration rates of up to 0.48 ± 0.12°C decade⁻² are inferred near 2024, indicating that the recent temperature jumps are part of an ongoing acceleration amplified by the El Niño event. Projections based on the accelerated trend estimates suggest the potential for an additional 0.5–1.0°C of warming within the next decade.
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
GoFundMe: gofundme.com/f/help-paul-continue-his-climate-emergency-research
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
