AMOC Collapse Consequences: Atmospheric CO2 Rise by 83ppm & 7C Arctic Cooling & 6C Antarctic Warming @PaulHBeckwith

Uploaded April 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago

AMOC Collapse Consequence: Atmospheric CO2 Rise by 83 ppm & 7C Arctic Cooling & 6C Antarctic Warming

I often call the slowing and potential collapse of the AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) ocean current system the “Mother of ALL Tipping Points” since the AMOC is central to the way heat moves around the planet, and is in vitally connected to atmospheric circulation patterns.

A new, just released peer reviewed scientific paper models some of the consequences of an AMOC collapse to the OFF state.

Basically:

- Atmospheric CO2 levels would rise between 47 to 83 ppm

- Arctic Regions between 60 degrees N and the North Pole would cool by 7 C
- Clearly this would cause huge growth of Arctic sea ice and expansion of ice sheets on Greenland. We reached an Arctic sea ice minimum way back in 2012, so does our situation mean a slowing already of the AMOC?

- Antarctic Regions between 60 degrees S and the South Pole would increase by 6 C
- Up to 2015, Antarctic sea ice was increasing at a rate of 1.5% per decade. Since 2015, we have seen a collapse of Antarctic sea ice, approaching a Blue Ocean event before the Arctic. Is this another sign of a slowing down of the AMOC with associated warming in Antarctica?

Essentially, we would be living on a completely different planet. Jet streams would completely change in behavior and location, rainfall patterns, temperatures, humidity, and everything else would go ape shite and our global crops would collapse. Very few humans left.

I do not know about you, but we need to deploy my three-legged-barstool to stop this from happening. How can we possibly risk this?

Please share this vital information far and wide and see my previous hopeful video on how we can draw down huge amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere if we have half a brain.

Cheers, and help me spread my findings to other earthlings and non-earthlings:)

Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.

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References and Links:

Peer-reviewed scientific paper in Nature Communications: Earth and Environment
Title: Collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation would lead to substantial oceanic carbon release and additional global warming
Link: nature.com/articles/s43247-026-03427-w

Abstract
The potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation could profoundly impact
regional and global climates, yet its effects on the carbon cycle and subsequently global temperature remain seriously underexplored. Here we quantify carbon cycle responses across different background global warming levels using a fast Earth system model. We find that Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse increases atmospheric carbon dioxide by 47–83 ppm carbon dioxide, leading to around 0.2 °C of additional global warming at higher carbon dioxide background levels after offsetting ocean-dynamics-driven cooling. Despite the modest global warming effect, regional temperature anomalies are pronounced: Arctic temperatures cool by ~ 7 °C (60 °N–90 °N), while Antarctic temperatures warm by ~ 6 °C (60 °S–90 °S). This latter response originates from deep convection triggered in the Southern Ocean, which ventilates deep carbon-rich waters. Such long term equilibrium responses reveal key physical and carbon-cycle mechanisms and highlight substantial regional climate risks associated with an Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse.

National Snow and Ice Data Center: nsidc.org/home

NSIDC Sea Ice: nsidc.org/data/search#keywords=sea+ice/sortKeys=score,,desc/facetFilters=%257B%257D/pageNumber=1/itemsPerPage=25

NSIDC Sea Ice Today: nsidc.org/sea-ice-today

Sea Ice Graphing tool for both the Arctic and Antarctica
nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.

GoFundMe: https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-paul-...

Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr,...

AMOC Collapse Consequences: Atmospheric CO2 Rise by 83ppm & 7C Arctic Cooling & 6C Antarctic Warming

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