Uploaded March 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
Global Tipping Points in Oceanic and Atmospheric Circulations — Can SRM Back Us Off from the Brink?
Take off, eh... Or better yet, please watch me chat about the crucial question as to whether SRM can stop or reverse tipping points in our global climate system...
Short answer...
Drum Roll please...
Yes it can, for many tipping elements in the climate system... but not all...
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Earth Nullschool
earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=-104.11,-89.44,488
Peer-reviewed science in Earth System Dynamics journal:
Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations
esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/1611/2025/esd-16-1611-2025.pdf
Abstract
Continued anthropogenic pressures on the Earth system hold the potential to disrupt established circulation patterns in the ocean and atmosphere.
In this narrative review, we investigate tipping points in these systems by assessing scientific evidence for feedbacks that may drive self-sustained change beyond critical forcing thresholds, drawing on insights from expert elicitation. The literature provides multiple strands of evidence for oceanic tipping points in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG), and the Antarctic Overturning Circulation, which may collapse under warmer and “fresher” (i.e. less salty) conditions.
A slowdown or collapse of these oceanic circulations would have far-reaching consequences for the rest of the climate system and could lead to strong impacts on human societies and the biosphere.
Among the atmospheric circulation systems considered, a few lines of evidence suggest the West African monsoon (WAM) as a tipping system. Its abrupt changes in the past have led to vastly different vegetation states of the Sahara (e.g. “green Sahara” states). Despite multiple potential sources of destabilization, evidence about tipping of the monsoon systems over South America and Asia is limited. Although theoretically possible, there is currently little indication for tipping points in tropical clouds or mid-latitude atmospheric circulations.
Similarly, tipping towards a more extreme or persistent state of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently not fully supported by models and observations. While the tipping thresholds for many of these systems are uncertain, tipping could have severe socioenvironmental consequences. Stabilizing Earth’s climate (along with minimizing other environmental pressures, such as aerosol pollution and ecosystem degradation) is critical for reducing the likelihood of reaching tipping points in the ocean–atmosphere system.
Peer-reviewed science in Earth System Dynamics journal:
The interaction of solar radiation modification with Earth system tipping elements
esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/939/2025/esd-16-939-2025.pdf
Abstract.
The avoidance of hitting tipping points has been invoked as a significant benefit of solar radiation
modification (SRM) techniques; however, the physical science underpinning this has thus far not been comprehensively assessed. This review assesses the available evidence for the interaction of SRM with a number of Earth system tipping elements in the cryosphere, the oceans, the atmosphere and the biosphere, with a particular focus on the impact of stratospheric aerosol injection. We review the scant available literature directly addressing the interaction of SRM with the tipping elements or closely related proxies to these elements. However, given how limited this evidence is, we also give a first-order indication of the impact of SRM on the tipping elements by assessing the impact of SRM on their drivers. We then briefly assess whether SRM could halt or
reverse tipping once feedbacks have been initiated. Finally, we suggest pathways for further research. We find that, when temperature is a key driver of tipping, well-implemented, homogenous, peak-shaving SRM could be at least partially effective at reducing the risk of hitting most tipping points examined relative to the same emission pathway scenarios without SRM. Nonetheless, very large uncertainties remain, particularly when drivers less strongly coupled to temperature are important, and considerably more research is needed before many of these large uncertainties can be resolved.
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
Global Tipping Points in Oceanic and Atmospheric Circulations — Can SRM Back Us Off from the Brink?
Take off, eh... Or better yet, please watch me chat about the crucial question as to whether SRM can stop or reverse tipping points in our global climate system...
Short answer...
Drum Roll please...
Yes it can, for many tipping elements in the climate system... but not all...
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Earth Nullschool
earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=-104.11,-89.44,488
Peer-reviewed science in Earth System Dynamics journal:
Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations
esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/1611/2025/esd-16-1611-2025.pdf
Abstract
Continued anthropogenic pressures on the Earth system hold the potential to disrupt established circulation patterns in the ocean and atmosphere.
In this narrative review, we investigate tipping points in these systems by assessing scientific evidence for feedbacks that may drive self-sustained change beyond critical forcing thresholds, drawing on insights from expert elicitation. The literature provides multiple strands of evidence for oceanic tipping points in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG), and the Antarctic Overturning Circulation, which may collapse under warmer and “fresher” (i.e. less salty) conditions.
A slowdown or collapse of these oceanic circulations would have far-reaching consequences for the rest of the climate system and could lead to strong impacts on human societies and the biosphere.
Among the atmospheric circulation systems considered, a few lines of evidence suggest the West African monsoon (WAM) as a tipping system. Its abrupt changes in the past have led to vastly different vegetation states of the Sahara (e.g. “green Sahara” states). Despite multiple potential sources of destabilization, evidence about tipping of the monsoon systems over South America and Asia is limited. Although theoretically possible, there is currently little indication for tipping points in tropical clouds or mid-latitude atmospheric circulations.
Similarly, tipping towards a more extreme or persistent state of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently not fully supported by models and observations. While the tipping thresholds for many of these systems are uncertain, tipping could have severe socioenvironmental consequences. Stabilizing Earth’s climate (along with minimizing other environmental pressures, such as aerosol pollution and ecosystem degradation) is critical for reducing the likelihood of reaching tipping points in the ocean–atmosphere system.
Peer-reviewed science in Earth System Dynamics journal:
The interaction of solar radiation modification with Earth system tipping elements
esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/939/2025/esd-16-939-2025.pdf
Abstract.
The avoidance of hitting tipping points has been invoked as a significant benefit of solar radiation
modification (SRM) techniques; however, the physical science underpinning this has thus far not been comprehensively assessed. This review assesses the available evidence for the interaction of SRM with a number of Earth system tipping elements in the cryosphere, the oceans, the atmosphere and the biosphere, with a particular focus on the impact of stratospheric aerosol injection. We review the scant available literature directly addressing the interaction of SRM with the tipping elements or closely related proxies to these elements. However, given how limited this evidence is, we also give a first-order indication of the impact of SRM on the tipping elements by assessing the impact of SRM on their drivers. We then briefly assess whether SRM could halt or
reverse tipping once feedbacks have been initiated. Finally, we suggest pathways for further research. We find that, when temperature is a key driver of tipping, well-implemented, homogenous, peak-shaving SRM could be at least partially effective at reducing the risk of hitting most tipping points examined relative to the same emission pathway scenarios without SRM. Nonetheless, very large uncertainties remain, particularly when drivers less strongly coupled to temperature are important, and considerably more research is needed before many of these large uncertainties can be resolved.
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
