Uploaded March 2026 | Updated September 2026, 1 week ago
The first techy topic here: Why you need to use a partition when talking about Bayesian arguments in history.
Here is an earlier video I did on this:
youtube.com/watch?v=y7umQEVtbx4&t=2s
The next techy topic here: Independence! This is a big and important topic for the resurrection case. In this video I mention Brian Blais's attempt to model independence to critique Tim's and my resurrection article. In this video I also do a quick tutorial on the topic of relative independence.
Here is my critique of Blais on independence. As it happens, because the publication of these videos with Than was delayed, I published this blog post sooner rather than waiting until the video went up. The post is complete in itself:
lydiaswebpage.blogspot.com/2025/12/brian-blaiss-attempt-to-model-dependence.html
Here is a long blog post in which I discuss these same topics--independence, dependence, and the resurrection. lydiaswebpage.blogspot.com/2025/12/the-resurrection-independence-and.html
Note that, far from being a "simplistic apologist," as Blais implies, I actually have well over a decade of blind peer-reviewed professional publications on the probability theory of independence. Here are several of the most relevant articles with links where you can access them if interested:
Professional articles by Lydia McGrew on dependence and independence. One of my major reasons for being interested in this topic was its application to what's known as the problem of the external world.
“Evidential Diversity and the Negation of H: A Probabilistic Account of the Value of Varied Evidence,” Ergo 3:10 (2016), available here: http://quod.lib.umich.edu/e/ergo/12405314.0003.010?view=text;rgn=main
“Bayes Factors All the Way: Toward a New View of Coherence and Truth,” Theoria (2016) 82:329-350. DOI 10.1111/theo.12102. Accepted manuscript version archived here. lydiamcgrew.com/wp-content/uploads/BayesFactorsAlltheWayaccepted.pdf
“Accounting for Dependence: Relative Consilience as a Correction Factor in Cumulative Case Arguments,” Australasian Journal of Philosophy. 95:3 (2017), 560-572, DOI 10.1080/00048402.2016.1219753. Accepted manuscript version archived here. lydiamcgrew.com/wp-content/uploads/Correctionfactoraccepted.pdf
“The World, the Deceiver, and The Face in the Frost,” Quaestiones Disputatae, 7:2 (2017, volume appeared in print fall, 2018), 112-146. Draft version archived by permission here. lydiamcgrew.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Problemoftheexternalworldrevised.pdf
“Confirmation, Coincidence, and Contradiction,” Synthese, 2021, Online First 3/14/21, DOI doi.org/10.1007/s11229-021-03102-x. Author’s Accepted Manuscript archived by permission here. lydiamcgrew.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/ConfirmationCoincidenceandContradiction.pdf
There will be more independence links concerning the resurrection in the next video.
Thanks again to Erik @TestifyApologetics for his help with these videos.
The first techy topic here: Why you need to use a partition when talking about Bayesian arguments in history.
Here is an earlier video I did on this:
youtube.com/watch?v=y7umQEVtbx4&t=2s
The next techy topic here: Independence! This is a big and important topic for the resurrection case. In this video I mention Brian Blais's attempt to model independence to critique Tim's and my resurrection article. In this video I also do a quick tutorial on the topic of relative independence.
Here is my critique of Blais on independence. As it happens, because the publication of these videos with Than was delayed, I published this blog post sooner rather than waiting until the video went up. The post is complete in itself:
lydiaswebpage.blogspot.com/2025/12/brian-blaiss-attempt-to-model-dependence.html
Here is a long blog post in which I discuss these same topics--independence, dependence, and the resurrection. lydiaswebpage.blogspot.com/2025/12/the-resurrection-independence-and.html
Note that, far from being a "simplistic apologist," as Blais implies, I actually have well over a decade of blind peer-reviewed professional publications on the probability theory of independence. Here are several of the most relevant articles with links where you can access them if interested:
Professional articles by Lydia McGrew on dependence and independence. One of my major reasons for being interested in this topic was its application to what's known as the problem of the external world.
“Evidential Diversity and the Negation of H: A Probabilistic Account of the Value of Varied Evidence,” Ergo 3:10 (2016), available here: http://quod.lib.umich.edu/e/ergo/12405314.0003.010?view=text;rgn=main
“Bayes Factors All the Way: Toward a New View of Coherence and Truth,” Theoria (2016) 82:329-350. DOI 10.1111/theo.12102. Accepted manuscript version archived here. lydiamcgrew.com/wp-content/uploads/BayesFactorsAlltheWayaccepted.pdf
“Accounting for Dependence: Relative Consilience as a Correction Factor in Cumulative Case Arguments,” Australasian Journal of Philosophy. 95:3 (2017), 560-572, DOI 10.1080/00048402.2016.1219753. Accepted manuscript version archived here. lydiamcgrew.com/wp-content/uploads/Correctionfactoraccepted.pdf
“The World, the Deceiver, and The Face in the Frost,” Quaestiones Disputatae, 7:2 (2017, volume appeared in print fall, 2018), 112-146. Draft version archived by permission here. lydiamcgrew.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Problemoftheexternalworldrevised.pdf
“Confirmation, Coincidence, and Contradiction,” Synthese, 2021, Online First 3/14/21, DOI doi.org/10.1007/s11229-021-03102-x. Author’s Accepted Manuscript archived by permission here. lydiamcgrew.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/ConfirmationCoincidenceandContradiction.pdf
There will be more independence links concerning the resurrection in the next video.
Thanks again to Erik @TestifyApologetics for his help with these videos.
