Assuming Things @heathcarmody2867

Heath Carmody | Assuming Things @heathcarmody2867 | Uploaded January 2023 | Updated October 2024, 1 day ago.
Back to making videos again after a little break. This is a short video that I started back in October and put on the back burner until I had more time. This is footage from the start of observation #8 at the 12 km ferry observation location. Full analysis of this final 'test' day coming soon, while I patiently wait for the spring observation season to begin.

This is an observation of close, strong inferior mirage and obstruction caused by upward refraction at low elevations. At least until we get to a far enough distance and high enough elevation that Earth curve must be assumed to be the primary cause of any downward displacement.

$Assuming Things Back to making videos again after a little break. This is a short video that I started back in October and put on the back burner until I had more time. This is footage from the start of observation #8 at the 12 km ferry observation location. Full analysis of this final test day coming soon, while I patiently wait for the spring observation season to begin. This is an observation of close, strong inferior mirage and obstruction caused by upward refraction at low elevations. At least until we get to a far enough distance and high enough elevation that Earth curve must be assumed to be the primary cause of any downward displacement.$ $In-Ferry-Or Mirage Day 3! More of the same. When trying to capture a transition between greatly different refraction conditions, timing is everything. Three observations of nothing but inferior mirage on 3 similar days and times. This observation started later in the morning than my last two. This time it did start to break as I was packing up, but I didnt capture any on this camera. Maybe I need more batteries? Definitely could use another camera or two.$ $More Footage of Water Bands and complex inferior mirage Seen Together🤔 Even more footage of a later, early evening ferry trip from observation #10 at the 12 km point. Same location/day/information as the last 3 videos. Camera height about 4.5 feet. Ferry 13 km max distance far shore to 10.5 km at passing behind 6 km land on right. 10x (mostly) time lapse compilation, no edits, showing what I think is the effects of multiple layers of slightly different refraction gradients, spread across the super calm lake surface. Why am I spending so much time on this one observation? I feel it demonstrates a few things quite well and having compiled segments will be useful for upcoming videos. I also cant make new observations yet so Im going over past observations looking for video worthy footage. Full video coming soon comparing all the footage from the first trip side by side in real time, from 2 camera heights, for anyone who wants to help decode the bands!$ $Pablosdogs Observation is Not (very) Flat - for Bobby Shafto Bobby Shafto recently made a video here: https://youtu.be/OzPfb8TV_Ew comparing two observations by Pablosdog channel here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPUjUQNc1cmxo9Tl9XQA7Wg/featured On Bobby Shaftos video I commented that I disagreed with the image he chose to represent flat geometry, and indicated that the apparent shoreline appears concave in relation to the 14 meter observer height. I was going to demonstrate this using my world famous Swanalyzer tool, but that video will take a little more work, and will be easier to understand after seeing this. I want to show how compression in the image can be misleading, as to the true required light bending at different elevations and distances. The Swanalyzer will show how this apparent radius changes with elevation and how the compression seen in the image can be a result of varying refraction conditions with height - on a flat plane. The overall distortion (some due to the quality of the photo downloaded from a communities page post) as an indication of the strength of refraction is another discussion in itself. Next video will touch on that. This video is back to my old method of making a very simple model and comparing the observation to determine the apparent radius near eye level.$

In-Ferry-Or Mirage Day 7 - Slow Transition to Surface Looming

$Shelter Bay #3 - Stable Inversion (4K Time Lapse Audiolizer) The warm weather continued over the weekend so I went back for the late afternoon on Sunday. Similar conditions and visual effects as observation #2, just maybe a couple of degrees warmer at peak. I recorded about 3 hours of footage from 3 cameras. This is only the time lapse from the 4K camera. I placed it on a concrete picnic table to ensure there would be no tripod movement from wind, even though there was barely a breeze. The camera was about 13-15 meters above the lake. Im still trying to pin down my heights and the exact scale of the 18.5 km point of interest, but this observation is mostly about the dynamic visual effects of refraction, rather than empirical measurements. That water sure does consistently remain visible an awful long way past the point though.. I should note that I measured a considerable temperature inversion from near the surface to the camera location right before the end of this observation, which Ill talk about in the next video because there was an unexpected anomaly. As you can imagine, there were some giant black swans from the lower cameras, where actual eye level is more measurable. Ill be featuring those as soon as this lucky spell of nice sunny early spring weather runs out.$ $Crazy Refraction Time Lapse! - Ferry from 12.7 km - Observation #11$

$SuPferior Mirages (Long Low Steady Refraction Time Lapse)$ $I H8 Black Swans I have 8 big black swans to present from my first 8 observations of 2024. Does anyone still use the term to describe horizons that appear way too far for a globe without any refraction? Ive been on an extended break from Earth shape discussion and YouTube in general, but still managed to get out to the lake a handful of times for some shorter than usual observations. Finally I have a little bit more time to put towards making some new videos and hopefully participating in the discussion again. I havent totally figured out the approach that I want to take this time, but Ill be experimenting with different styles of videos and maybe some longer narrated videos that actually explain things better than subtitles. This fall Ill also start using my software again for observation analysis, comparison and demonstrations. Who knows, maybe Ill even start live streaming again, if I can get enough people interested in honest observation analysis.$

Observation Highlights January 23, 2021 - Strong Inferior Mirage

$InFerryOr Mirage #1 (2023) Continuing the series with a new observation for 2023. Observation #10 at Shelter Bay ferry, but from a slightly different spot where I can see the far ferry ramp at about 5 km distance. This series usually focuses on low camera angle mirage and refraction effects observed over a long period and played back very fast. This time I decided to mix in some real time footage and a some subtitles to provide context. This was in the middle of almost 3 weeks of extreme heat (for this time of year here). Data from a somewhat nearby hydrometric monitoring station indicates a high of 26.2°C for this day (May 13th), but my thermometers reached 30°C in the shade on the beach and close to that higher up in the trees. The lake is likely very cold in general and being rapidly fed by cold water from the mountain snowpack. The water temperature at the beach is surprisingly warm though. More on that later. One more hot day to go tomorrow and then its supposed to cool down and rain a little, more typical of May weather. Ill try for one more hot day observation tomorrow.$