Uploaded June 2010 | Updated September 2026, 1 week ago
In 2005 the media told us we were on the brink of another ice age. What happened?
SOURCES:
(in chronological order)
Movie clip at the beginning from "The Day After Tomorrow"
Broeker's hypothesis that melting ice will interrupt thermohaline circulation:
"Thermohaline Circulation, the Achilles Heel of Our Climate System; Will Man-Made CO2 Upset the Current Balance?" -- Wallace S. Broeker, Science (Nov 28 1997)
Linkage of glaciation to shut down of AMOC:
"A model for Northern Hemisphere continental ice sheet variation"
-- R. G. Johnson and B. T. McClure, Quaternary Research (Sep 1976)
See also "Was the Younger Dryas Triggered by a Flood?"
Wallace S. Broecker, Science (May 26, 2006)
"Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25° N"
-- Harry L. Bryden et al, Nature (Dec 1, 2005)
NEWSPAPER HEADLINES SHOWN:
"Britain faces Big Freeze as Gulf Stream Loses Strength"
-- The Times (Dec 1, 2005)
"New Gulf Stream fears bring UK Ice Age warning"
-- The Evening Standard (Sep 6, 2001)
"Scientists probing a dying current bring worst climate fears to the surface."
-- The Australian, (Dec 5, 2005)
"Fears of Big Freeze as Scientists Detect Slower Gulf Stream"
-- The Independent (Dec 1, 2005)
RealClimate quote "while continued monitoring of this key climatic area is clearly warranted, the imminent chilling of the (sic) Europe is a ways off yet" at
realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/05/gulf-stream-slowdown
Richard Wood saying Britain and Scandinavia should cool if Gulf Stream slowdown was real:
"Failing ocean current raises fears of mini ice age"
-- New Scientist, (Nov 30, 2005)
newscientist.com/article/dn8398-failing-ocean-current-raises-fears-of-mini-ice-age.html
Gavin Schmidt saying surface temps should have dipped:
"Scientists Say Slower Atlantic Currents Could Mean a Colder Europe"
-- New York Times (Dec 1, 2005)
Robert Dickson saying much more data was needed to determine whether a slowdown was underway:
Ibid.
Harry Bryden saying not sure if change was temporary or signals a long-term trend:
"Failing ocean current raises fears of mini ice age"
-- New Scientist, (Nov 30, 2005)
newscientist.com/article/dn8398-failing-ocean-current-raises-fears-of-mini-ice-age.html
Bryden says a variable signal, but too early to detect any trends:
"No new ice age for western Europe."
-- New Scientist, (Nov 7, 2006)
newscientist.com/article/mg19225763.900-no-new-ice-age-for-western-europe.html
Wunch saying it's a complicated story reduced to a fairytale:
Ibid.
"Sea change: why global warming could leave Britain feeling the cold"
-- The Guardian (Oct 27, 2006)
guardian.co.uk/environment/2006/oct/27/science.climatechange
"Can in situ floats and satellite altimeters detect long-term changes in Atlantic Ocean overturning?"
-- Josh K. Willis, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (Mar 25, 2010)
"New climate change myth: Gulf Stream is NOT slowing down"
-- Daily Mail (Mar 30, 2010)
dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1262096/Global-warming-slowing-Gulf-Stream.html
"IS BRITAIN ON THE BRINK OF A NEW ICE AGE?"
-- Daily Mail (Dec 2, 2005)
thefreelibrary.com/IS+BRITAIN+ON+THE+BRINK+OF+A+NEW+ICE+AGE%3f-a0139358882
"Global warming 'will bring cooler climate for UK'"
-- Daily Telegraph (Dec 1, 2005)
telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/4198339/Global-warming-will-bring-cooler-climate-for-UK.html
"Gulf Stream is not slowing down, scientists claim."
-- Daily Telegraph (Mar 30, 2010)
telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/7536760/Gulf-Stream-is-not-slowing-down-scientists-claim.html
1970s ice age myth busted at "Climate Change -- Anatomy of a Myth" on Potholer54 YouTube channel
In 2005 the media told us we were on the brink of another ice age. What happened?
SOURCES:
(in chronological order)
Movie clip at the beginning from "The Day After Tomorrow"
Broeker's hypothesis that melting ice will interrupt thermohaline circulation:
"Thermohaline Circulation, the Achilles Heel of Our Climate System; Will Man-Made CO2 Upset the Current Balance?" -- Wallace S. Broeker, Science (Nov 28 1997)
Linkage of glaciation to shut down of AMOC:
"A model for Northern Hemisphere continental ice sheet variation"
-- R. G. Johnson and B. T. McClure, Quaternary Research (Sep 1976)
See also "Was the Younger Dryas Triggered by a Flood?"
Wallace S. Broecker, Science (May 26, 2006)
"Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25° N"
-- Harry L. Bryden et al, Nature (Dec 1, 2005)
NEWSPAPER HEADLINES SHOWN:
"Britain faces Big Freeze as Gulf Stream Loses Strength"
-- The Times (Dec 1, 2005)
"New Gulf Stream fears bring UK Ice Age warning"
-- The Evening Standard (Sep 6, 2001)
"Scientists probing a dying current bring worst climate fears to the surface."
-- The Australian, (Dec 5, 2005)
"Fears of Big Freeze as Scientists Detect Slower Gulf Stream"
-- The Independent (Dec 1, 2005)
RealClimate quote "while continued monitoring of this key climatic area is clearly warranted, the imminent chilling of the (sic) Europe is a ways off yet" at
realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/05/gulf-stream-slowdown
Richard Wood saying Britain and Scandinavia should cool if Gulf Stream slowdown was real:
"Failing ocean current raises fears of mini ice age"
-- New Scientist, (Nov 30, 2005)
newscientist.com/article/dn8398-failing-ocean-current-raises-fears-of-mini-ice-age.html
Gavin Schmidt saying surface temps should have dipped:
"Scientists Say Slower Atlantic Currents Could Mean a Colder Europe"
-- New York Times (Dec 1, 2005)
Robert Dickson saying much more data was needed to determine whether a slowdown was underway:
Ibid.
Harry Bryden saying not sure if change was temporary or signals a long-term trend:
"Failing ocean current raises fears of mini ice age"
-- New Scientist, (Nov 30, 2005)
newscientist.com/article/dn8398-failing-ocean-current-raises-fears-of-mini-ice-age.html
Bryden says a variable signal, but too early to detect any trends:
"No new ice age for western Europe."
-- New Scientist, (Nov 7, 2006)
newscientist.com/article/mg19225763.900-no-new-ice-age-for-western-europe.html
Wunch saying it's a complicated story reduced to a fairytale:
Ibid.
"Sea change: why global warming could leave Britain feeling the cold"
-- The Guardian (Oct 27, 2006)
guardian.co.uk/environment/2006/oct/27/science.climatechange
"Can in situ floats and satellite altimeters detect long-term changes in Atlantic Ocean overturning?"
-- Josh K. Willis, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (Mar 25, 2010)
"New climate change myth: Gulf Stream is NOT slowing down"
-- Daily Mail (Mar 30, 2010)
dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1262096/Global-warming-slowing-Gulf-Stream.html
"IS BRITAIN ON THE BRINK OF A NEW ICE AGE?"
-- Daily Mail (Dec 2, 2005)
thefreelibrary.com/IS+BRITAIN+ON+THE+BRINK+OF+A+NEW+ICE+AGE%3f-a0139358882
"Global warming 'will bring cooler climate for UK'"
-- Daily Telegraph (Dec 1, 2005)
telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/4198339/Global-warming-will-bring-cooler-climate-for-UK.html
"Gulf Stream is not slowing down, scientists claim."
-- Daily Telegraph (Mar 30, 2010)
telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/7536760/Gulf-Stream-is-not-slowing-down-scientists-claim.html
1970s ice age myth busted at "Climate Change -- Anatomy of a Myth" on Potholer54 YouTube channel

![12 - Doubled CO2 means just 1.64 degrees of warming... or maybe not.
Last week a paper by researchers at NASAs Goddard Institute for Space Studies led to sensational headlines that the Earth will only warm by as much as 1.64 degrees centigrade in a couple of centuries. Sound too good to be true? Of course it does.
Ive put this video together faster than I normally would because the myth has already gone viral. But its so easy to spot the flaws you have to wonder why people who call themselves skeptics arent skeptical enough to check even the most basic facts.
CORRECTION:
Cbrhawk1 points out an error at around 3:15. He writes: [Potholer] applies a subtractive 0.26C to the 4.5C estimate of the IPCC rather than properly applying the feedback to the formula. My response: The paper doesnt show how to apply the formula to other models, which is why I subtracted the 0.26 degC figure directly. However, I agree with Cbrhawk1 that it is not that simple, because higher temperatures would presumably lead to higher evapotranspiration rates. If we apply the figure pro-rata, then warming of 4.5 degrees would be reduced to 3.9 degrees.
I have no argument with that at all; evapotranspiration is a negative feedback, and the paper shows that it is greater than previously estimated. The point of this video is to debunk the absurd conclusion that global temperatures are only set to rise by 1.64 degrees because of evapotranspiration. The focus of the study was not to determine global temps but to quantify the negative feedback effects of evapotranspiration. Since the model started with a low warming figure, it resulted in a low warming figure when evapotranspiration was plugged in. Had the model started with a higher warming figure, it would have resulted in a higher warming figure when evapotranspiration was plugged in.
SOURCES:
Original myth published in:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/12/08/new_model_doubled_co2_sub_2_degrees_warming/
Greener Climate Prediction Shows Plants Slow Warming
NASA press release
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/cooling-plant-growth.html
Original paper:
Quantifying the negative feedback of vegetation to greenhouse warming: A modeling approach
L. Bounoua et al, Geophysical Research Letters, Dec 2010
Bio of Lewis Page:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/lewis-page
Mauna Loa CO2 growth data:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth
from economic activity, carbon intensity, and
efficiency of natural sinks
J. Canadell, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2007
Probabilistic Forecast for 21st Century Climate Based on Uncertainties in Emissions (without Policy) and Climate Parameters
A.P. Sokolov et al, MIT 2009
Myth from the Register repeated:
http://www.openyoureyesnews.com/2010/12/14/new-nasa-model-doubled-co2-means-just-1-64%C2%B0c-warming/
...and again...
http://www.sott.net/articles/show/219487-New-NASA-model-Doubled-CO2-means-just-1-64C-warming
...and again...
http://www.climatedepot.com/a/9045/New-NASA-model-Doubled-CO2-means-just-164degC-warming-Previous-models-failed-to-properly-account-for-an-important-cooling-factor-which-will-come-into-play-as-CO2-levels-rise
...and again...
http://alethonews.wordpress.com/2010/12/11/new-nasa-model-doubled-co2-means-just-1-64%C2%B0c-warming/
...and again...
NASA Peer-Reviewed Study Finds Low Sensitivity To CO2 Doubling: The UNs IPCC Global Warming Science Is Imploding
http://www.c3headlines.com/are-leftistsliberal-elites-corrupt-stupid-hypocritical/
...and again...
New NASA model: Doubled CO2 means just 1.64°C warming
http://www.climatechangedispatch.com/home/8241-new-nasa-model-doubled-co2-means-just-164dc-warming
...and again...
NASA Peer-Reviewed Study Finds Low Sensitivity To CO2 Doubling: The UNs IPCC Global Warming Science Is Imploding
http://www.c3headlines.com/2010/12/nasa-peer-reviewed-study-finds-low-sensitivity-to-co2-doubling-the-uns-ipcc-global-warming-science-i.html
...and again...
Greenhouse Gasses Arent Going To Be A Problem For Centuries Say Scientists From NASA
http://rightwingnews.com/2010/12/greenhouse-gasses-arent-going-to-be-a-problem-for-centuries-say-scientists-from-nasa-wait-what/
Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply
M. Jung et al, Nature, October 2010 12 - Doubled CO2 means just 1.64 degrees of warming... or maybe not.](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/l3vIWD4tAHc/mqdefault.jpg)








