Why The Strait of Hormuz Will Still Be Closed By Midterms @MichaelSmerconish
Why The Strait of Hormuz Will Still Be Closed By Midterms  @MichaelSmerconish
Uploaded August 2026 | Updated September 2026, 3 weeks ago
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Why could the Strait of Hormuz still be closed when Americans vote in the midterms?

Michael Smerconish breaks down University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape’s striking analysis of Iran’s ability to keep one of the world’s most important shipping lanes shut down.

The problem comes down to scale. Iran can deploy relatively inexpensive Shahed drones capable of reaching the Strait from an enormous launch zone — including mountainous terrain where finding and destroying enough of them could prove extraordinarily difficult. According to Pape, reducing that threat enough to restore confidence among commercial shippers and insurers may be virtually impossible before Election Day without a far greater U.S. military commitment.

With the midterms approaching, gas prices elevated, and Iran facing enormous economic pressure of its own, the question becomes both military and political: Can Washington reopen the Strait before voters go to the polls — or can Tehran simply wait America out?

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Why The Strait of Hormuz Will Still Be Closed By Midterms

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