Why The Fed Is Worried About A Recession Next Year | Chris Whalen @TheJuliaLaRocheShow

The Julia La Roche Show | Why The Fed Is Worried About A Recession Next Year | Chris Whalen @TheJuliaLaRocheShow | Uploaded July 2024 | Updated October 2024, 18 hours ago.
Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 181 to discuss the economy, why he thinks the Federal Reserve is worried about a recession next year, and his take on the upcoming election.

Links:
Twitter/X: twitter.com/rcwhalen
Website: rcwhalen.com
The Institutional Risk Analyst: theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com
Stanley Middleman book: amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen
01:00 Macro view
03:00 Stress tests
05:50 The Consumer
07:30 Silent crisis in commercial
11:24 Election
14:45 Trump win good for the economy
17:30 Inflation
21:20 Rate policy
25:30 Trump
29:00 Parting thoughts

#economy #recession #investing

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$The Economic Singularity: Weve Got 6 Years To Make As Much Money As We Possibly Can | Raoul Pal Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Real Vision and author of the Global Macro Investor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 121 to share his macro outlook and why he thinks were headed for an Economic Singularity with the rise of AI. ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account. Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/raoulgmi GMI: https://globalmacroinvestor.com/ Real Vision: https://www.realvision.com/ Timestamps: 00:00 Welcome Raoul Pal and Real Visions 10-year anniversary 01:39 The Everything Code and macro cycles explained 05:38 Explaining liquidity and its sources 07:29 Central banks, liquidity, and currency debasement 11:42 Risk-taking and asset performance in the current environment 15:02 The exciting macro setup and market opportunities ahead 17:43 Addressing misconceptions about recessions and market bubbles 22:23 Federal Reserve rate cuts and inflation outlook 25:58 Raouls evolution to a more optimistic market view 34:45 The concept of Economic Singularity explained 38:20 AIs impact on productivity and economic growth 42:20 Preparing for the economic singularity in the next 6 years 43:58 Bitcoin as a high-performing asset 45:07 Real Visions past and future outlook 48:58 Closing thoughts on unf***ing your future$

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