Uploaded June 2026 | Updated September 2026, 3 weeks ago
Three weeks ago, I warned that the war involving Iran could trigger a seven-stage economic crisis. Today, I think that risk is much greater than it was then.
The reason is simple. We are no longer looking at a threat to one global trade route. We are potentially looking at threats to two of the most important trade routes in the world at the same time.
Iran is now signalling its intention to close the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, disruption in the Red Sea could make access to the Suez Canal effectively impossible. Together, these routes are critical to global energy supplies and world trade. A significant proportion of the world’s oil passes through Hormuz, whilst the Suez route is one of the key arteries linking Europe, Asia and the Middle East. If both are disrupted, the consequences will be felt everywhere.
In this video, I explain why these situations change everything. As a result, I revisit the seven stages of economic meltdown that I outlined previously and explain why events are now moving in exactly the direction that analysis suggested. Rising oil prices are only the beginning. Fuel shortages, supply chain breakdowns, food price inflation, business failures and a banking crisis could all follow.
I also explain why central banks are likely to make matters worse. Faced with rising prices, they may once again reach for higher interest rates even though inflation would be caused by shortages and disrupted supply chains, not excessive consumer demand. That mistake could deepen the crisis and accelerate the recession we face.
My concern is not simply that a crisis might happen. My concern is that it may already have begun. Markets are reacting. Commodity prices are rising. Diplomatic efforts are failing. The warning signs are becoming harder to ignore by the day.
TRANSCRIPT
A transcript for this video is available at: taxresearch.org.uk
DEBATE AMMUNITION
The Debate Ammunition for this video is available here. taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2026/06/01/debate-ammunition-the-seven-stages-to-economic-meltdown
IF YOU WANT TO WRITE TO YOUR MP ABOUT ISSUES IN THIS VIDEO
If you want to write a letter to your MP on the issues raised in this blog post, there is a ChatGPT prompt to assist you in doing so, with full instructions, here. taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2025/06/20/chatgpt-prompt-for-a-letter-to-your-mp
HOW TO SUPPORT US
Please consider donating: ko-fi.com/taxresearch
ABOUT RICHARD MURPHY
Richard Murphy is Emeritus Professor of Accounting Practice at Sheffield University Management School. He is director of Tax Research LLP and the author of the Funding the Future blog. His best-known book is ‘The Joy of Tax’.
This video was edited by Thomas Murphy.
RICHARD MURPHY ON BLUESKY:
https://bsky.app/profile/richardjmurphy.bsky.social
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ON MY BLOG: taxresearch.org.uk/Blog
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INTRODUCTION: youtube.com/watch?v=HdHsRPy3060
PLAYLISTS:
The Wealth Series
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgobQLeyZYAagFDMjEFTKbhRD
Ecenomics
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgob54Gs-fOL-8OAQ-IpduwB4
Britain
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgobwTT4ATvJjsf8OO6S7wD10
Tax
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgoaMni_12J6ULp3yUJisUZoY
MMT
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgoZ6jvRGSW5YXu8qogE6aClX
Money
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgoYnLk1c7syTvoIo8bKYUs5m
Climate Change
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgob4_wsYaVivWd2WumpPLYwJ
USA
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgoYYd3dSyU2Oyl3x7bWJOP7H
Labour
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgoa-KhzG-fnjDSg1WROL1zMw
The Trump Administration
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgobz41-GLimTho27A3flVWQx
#richardmurphy #richardjmurphy #economy #economics #accountancy #accounting #tax #uktax #ukeconomy #greennewdeal #uk #money #economy #politics #government #tax #labour #health #life #usa #iran #isreal #trump #war
Three weeks ago, I warned that the war involving Iran could trigger a seven-stage economic crisis. Today, I think that risk is much greater than it was then.
The reason is simple. We are no longer looking at a threat to one global trade route. We are potentially looking at threats to two of the most important trade routes in the world at the same time.
Iran is now signalling its intention to close the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, disruption in the Red Sea could make access to the Suez Canal effectively impossible. Together, these routes are critical to global energy supplies and world trade. A significant proportion of the world’s oil passes through Hormuz, whilst the Suez route is one of the key arteries linking Europe, Asia and the Middle East. If both are disrupted, the consequences will be felt everywhere.
In this video, I explain why these situations change everything. As a result, I revisit the seven stages of economic meltdown that I outlined previously and explain why events are now moving in exactly the direction that analysis suggested. Rising oil prices are only the beginning. Fuel shortages, supply chain breakdowns, food price inflation, business failures and a banking crisis could all follow.
I also explain why central banks are likely to make matters worse. Faced with rising prices, they may once again reach for higher interest rates even though inflation would be caused by shortages and disrupted supply chains, not excessive consumer demand. That mistake could deepen the crisis and accelerate the recession we face.
My concern is not simply that a crisis might happen. My concern is that it may already have begun. Markets are reacting. Commodity prices are rising. Diplomatic efforts are failing. The warning signs are becoming harder to ignore by the day.
TRANSCRIPT
A transcript for this video is available at: taxresearch.org.uk
DEBATE AMMUNITION
The Debate Ammunition for this video is available here. taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2026/06/01/debate-ammunition-the-seven-stages-to-economic-meltdown
IF YOU WANT TO WRITE TO YOUR MP ABOUT ISSUES IN THIS VIDEO
If you want to write a letter to your MP on the issues raised in this blog post, there is a ChatGPT prompt to assist you in doing so, with full instructions, here. taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2025/06/20/chatgpt-prompt-for-a-letter-to-your-mp
HOW TO SUPPORT US
Please consider donating: ko-fi.com/taxresearch
ABOUT RICHARD MURPHY
Richard Murphy is Emeritus Professor of Accounting Practice at Sheffield University Management School. He is director of Tax Research LLP and the author of the Funding the Future blog. His best-known book is ‘The Joy of Tax’.
This video was edited by Thomas Murphy.
RICHARD MURPHY ON BLUESKY:
https://bsky.app/profile/richardjmurphy.bsky.social
OR
ON MY BLOG: taxresearch.org.uk/Blog
HIT SUBSCRIBE & GET NOTIFICATIONS
Subscribe and get notified of new videos released.
INTRODUCTION: youtube.com/watch?v=HdHsRPy3060
PLAYLISTS:
The Wealth Series
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgobQLeyZYAagFDMjEFTKbhRD
Ecenomics
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgob54Gs-fOL-8OAQ-IpduwB4
Britain
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgobwTT4ATvJjsf8OO6S7wD10
Tax
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgoaMni_12J6ULp3yUJisUZoY
MMT
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgoZ6jvRGSW5YXu8qogE6aClX
Money
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgoYnLk1c7syTvoIo8bKYUs5m
Climate Change
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgob4_wsYaVivWd2WumpPLYwJ
USA
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgoYYd3dSyU2Oyl3x7bWJOP7H
Labour
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgoa-KhzG-fnjDSg1WROL1zMw
The Trump Administration
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgobz41-GLimTho27A3flVWQx
#richardmurphy #richardjmurphy #economy #economics #accountancy #accounting #tax #uktax #ukeconomy #greennewdeal #uk #money #economy #politics #government #tax #labour #health #life #usa #iran #isreal #trump #war
