Uploaded June 2026 | Updated September 2026, 46 minutes ago
Indonesia’s rupiah has fallen sharply in 2026. This video explains how oil prices, investor fear, dollar demand, and Bank Indonesia’s rate hikes put pressure on Southeast Asia’s largest economy.
Narrated By Tom McKay
instagram.com/tmckay715
youtube.com/@UC8blX3YnHDG9e9_E9KjPK6g
Inquiries: behindasian@gmail.com
Brought to you by the Behind Asian Team.
Source list
Bank Indonesia JISDOR for the rupiah reference rate, including late-May levels around 17,743–17,883 per US dollar. Use this for your exchange-rate chart.
Reuters for the May 20 rate hike, the rupiah’s record low around 17,745, and Bank Indonesia raising the BI Rate by 50 basis points to 5.25%.
Indonesia Ministry of Finance KEM-PPKF 2027 for the 2026 budget assumptions: Rp16,500 per US dollar and ICP oil price at $70 per barrel.
Reuters for the oil-shock deficit risk, including the warning that oil around $90 could push Indonesia’s deficit toward 3.6% of GDP.
IMF for Indonesia’s fiscal rule: the 3% of GDP deficit cap and 60% of GDP debt ceiling.
Bank Indonesia law for BI independence, saying the central bank should be independent and free from government or outside intervention.
MSCI official announcement for concerns about transparency and possible weighting reduction or reclassification from Emerging Market to Frontier Market status.
Reuters for the MSCI-triggered Indonesian equity rout, including the roughly $80 billion market-value loss and transparency concerns.
Reuters for March bond outflows, reporting foreign investors pulled about $1.8 billion from Indonesian bonds.
Bank Indonesia presentation book for foreign ownership of Indonesian government bonds falling from near 40% before the pandemic to around 13% by early 2026.
Reuters for Moody’s cutting Indonesia’s outlook to negative and citing governance and policy predictability concerns.
Reuters for Fitch revising Indonesia’s outlook to negative while keeping the rating investment grade.
Reuters for Bank Indonesia tightening dollar-buying rules and lowering the documentation threshold to $25,000 per month.
Bank Indonesia official rate decision for the May 2026 BI Rate increase to 5.25%.
Bank Indonesia / reserve data for Indonesia’s FX reserves falling to $146.2 billion in April 2026.
BPS-Statistics Indonesia for exports, imports, and the April 2026 trade surplus.
Indonesia’s rupiah has fallen sharply in 2026. This video explains how oil prices, investor fear, dollar demand, and Bank Indonesia’s rate hikes put pressure on Southeast Asia’s largest economy.
Narrated By Tom McKay
instagram.com/tmckay715
youtube.com/@UC8blX3YnHDG9e9_E9KjPK6g
Inquiries: behindasian@gmail.com
Brought to you by the Behind Asian Team.
Source list
Bank Indonesia JISDOR for the rupiah reference rate, including late-May levels around 17,743–17,883 per US dollar. Use this for your exchange-rate chart.
Reuters for the May 20 rate hike, the rupiah’s record low around 17,745, and Bank Indonesia raising the BI Rate by 50 basis points to 5.25%.
Indonesia Ministry of Finance KEM-PPKF 2027 for the 2026 budget assumptions: Rp16,500 per US dollar and ICP oil price at $70 per barrel.
Reuters for the oil-shock deficit risk, including the warning that oil around $90 could push Indonesia’s deficit toward 3.6% of GDP.
IMF for Indonesia’s fiscal rule: the 3% of GDP deficit cap and 60% of GDP debt ceiling.
Bank Indonesia law for BI independence, saying the central bank should be independent and free from government or outside intervention.
MSCI official announcement for concerns about transparency and possible weighting reduction or reclassification from Emerging Market to Frontier Market status.
Reuters for the MSCI-triggered Indonesian equity rout, including the roughly $80 billion market-value loss and transparency concerns.
Reuters for March bond outflows, reporting foreign investors pulled about $1.8 billion from Indonesian bonds.
Bank Indonesia presentation book for foreign ownership of Indonesian government bonds falling from near 40% before the pandemic to around 13% by early 2026.
Reuters for Moody’s cutting Indonesia’s outlook to negative and citing governance and policy predictability concerns.
Reuters for Fitch revising Indonesia’s outlook to negative while keeping the rating investment grade.
Reuters for Bank Indonesia tightening dollar-buying rules and lowering the documentation threshold to $25,000 per month.
Bank Indonesia official rate decision for the May 2026 BI Rate increase to 5.25%.
Bank Indonesia / reserve data for Indonesia’s FX reserves falling to $146.2 billion in April 2026.
BPS-Statistics Indonesia for exports, imports, and the April 2026 trade surplus.
